3rd And 1: Best bets for Week 9 of the CFL season

Are summers getting shorter, or are we picking up speed?  Racing toward the midpoint of the season, the engine is humming after a couple of weeks in neutral.  We were flirting with a flawless week until the Lions' late-game collapse against the Ti-Cats on Sunday.  How bout those Tabbies?  The hottest team in the league has won five in a row.  Bo Levi Mitchell is the favourite for Most Outstanding Player, Kenny Lawler is in the top five, and Hamilton finds itself in a four-team mix at the top of the Grey Cup futures market with 4-to-1 odds at Fanduel.  It would be easy to pencil them in for another win against the spread in Edmonton, but pump the brakes.  Find out why I’m picking against them in a bit.  First, it’s the Stamps in Ottawa and I have my eye on the total for a second straight Thursday Night Football game featuring Calgary.

Calgary Stampeders at Ottawa Redblacks

I’m counting on the Stamps' top top-ranked defence.  It’ll be the best unit on the field in Ottawa.  The Redblacks are coming off a much-needed bye, but will it lead to a much-needed win?  They have the worst record in the league at 1-6.  As I’ve written here many times, I like a lot of their offensive pieces, and Dru Brown has shown all the abilities, except availability.  We’ll see what they can do if Brown can be consistently healthy.  Against the Stamps, I expect him to struggle even if he’s 100 percent physically.  Calgary is allowing 3.5 points per game fewer than the next-best team in that category.   With Vernon Adams out, the defence will be even stingier.  I don’t expect much from PJ Walker in his first CFL start.  The former XFL star has a winning record in the NFL, but he threw six touchdowns to 16 interceptions in his time with the Panthers and Browns.  He’ll also be without most of the Stamps best weapons.  Reggie Begelton is obviously out long-term, now Damien Alford and Clark Barnes join him on the sideline, and Jalen Philpot is dealing with a hamstring injury.

THE PICK: Under 49.5 POINTS

PLAYER PROP:  Dominique Rhymes OVER 3.5 receptions (-122)

The last stud standing in the Stamps receiver room is Dominique Rhymes.  He’s had at least four catches in three straight games, including two that were thrown by Walker in the fourth quarter of last week’s loss.  Walker has a big arm and likes to show it off on tight window throws.  He targeted the sure-handed Rhymes on a team-high three of his seven pass attempts.  The former Redblack could be busy in his return to the nation’s capital.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Edmonton Elks

Are we spinning our tires with this pick?  The team with the longest odds to win the Grey Cup over the team that’s won five in a row?  The worst defence in the league up against a team that’s averaging over 32 points a game?  We’ll find out Saturday afternoon.  First off, this will be back-to-back west coast road trips for Hamilton, and I have to believe they’re due for a bit of a dud.  But this is more about the Elks.  They looked like a different team with Cody Fajardo under center last week.  Give them credit for having a chance to knock off the Riders on the road.  The Elks have lost the time of possession battle in each of their six games, but last week was by just six seconds.  That difference paid off on defence where they limited Saskatchewan to just 21 points and 332 yards of offence, which is over 60 yards fewer than the Riders have averaged this season. In other words, the league’s worst defence was drastically improved by being on the field for less time.  Cody Fajardo was sacked eight times for a loss of 64 yards against Sask.  The Ti-cats pass rush isn’t as scary, but you can be sure that protection was paramount at Elks practice this week.  Considering the line could be 4.5 by kickoff, I’ll take the extra point with the Elks at -122.

THE PICK: ELKS +4.5

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Montreal Alouettes

The top two choices to win the Grey Cup go at it again this week.  The Als are still a slight favourite after their comeback win in Calgary.  The Riders now have the second-shortest odds to win it all, and they’re next on Montreal’s schedule.  McLeod Bethel-Thompson got the job done but likely benefited from injuries to Vernon Adams and Damien Alford.  I have concerns about the veteran’s mobility against the Riders' pass rush.  As mentioned above, they had eight sacks last week, putting them into the league lead.  They also lead in pressure rate and pass rush win rate, which is how often the defender beats their man in one-on-one protection.  They do it 66 percent of the time.  They also allow the fewest rushing yards per game, so McBeth is likely to have to drop back and stand in the pocket. 

THE PICK: ROUGHRIDERS -2.5