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A Numbers Game: Revisiting a FanDuel market with a 90 per cent win rate
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The 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup has not been good to me.
Unfortunately, the latest exception to the most profitable betting trend at this year’s tournament also happened to spoil my FanDuel Best Bet for Tuesday’s games.
The “No” option in the Both Teams To Score market at FanDuel was a combined 19-1 entering Canada’s game versus the Republic of Ireland on Wednesday morning.
That’s a stunning 95 per cent win rate.
That win rate fell to 90 per cent following Canada’s 2-1 comeback win.
As somebody cheering for both Canada to win and my FanDuel Best Bet to hit, Ireland’s goal in the fourth minute was particularly devastating.
I was just finishing the final sips of my morning coffee when Katie McCabe scored a brilliant corner-kick goal, immediately putting me in a tough position.
If Canada won the match, my FanDuel Best Bet would have to be a loss.
If the FanDuel Best Bet cashed, it would mean Canada lost the match and would likely be eliminated from the tournament.
Under the circumstances, I’m fine with the result we got.
In terms of getting on track with a FanDuel Best Bet winner, I’m going to double down and plug in a “No” bet in the Both Teams To Score market for Thursday morning’s Group B match (6 am ET/3 am PT on TSN, TSN.ca and the TSN App) between Australia and Nigeria.
Australia is the superior team and they cruised to a 1-0 win over Ireland in their opener last Thursday.
Nigeria played to a scoreless draw with Canada that same day.
FanDuel has priced a draw for this match at +320, while a Nigerian upset win is currently +650.
Australia can grab control of top spot in Group B with a win over Nigeria.
At the very least, a draw would keep them level with Canada on points heading into their group stage finale on Monday, July 31.
Despite ending up on the wrong side of an outcome with a 90 per cent win rate in the tournament, I’m confident that my luck will turn around and I will end up on the other side if I stick with this market.
I’ll take the “No” in the Both Teams To Score market in the match between Australia and Nigeria as my FanDuel Best Bet for the next wave of Women’s World Cup games.