Any Given Saturday: Top-ranked Texas to make history as Week 1 underdog at Ohio State

For the first time ever, the Texas Longhorns are the No. 1 ranked team in the NCAA Football AP Preseason Poll.

Unfortunately, all that matters in Texas is whether they’ll still be the top ranked team after Week 1. 

Their first test as No. 1 might be their toughest test.

Arch Manning and the Longhorns will travel to Columbus to face the defending FBS champion Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday August 30th.

Ohio State is a 2.5-point favourite at FanDuel.

Barring a significant line move, Texas will become the first No. 1 ranked team ever to open the season as a Week 1 underdog.

That’s according to ESPN data that dates to 1978.

Per the FanDuel traders, 76 per cent of the moneyline bets are on the Longhorns to pull off the upset win.

As for the bets against the spread, 58 per cent of the handle wagered at FanDuel is on Texas +2.5.

How can the No. 1 ranked team open as an underdog against the No. 3 ranked team?

First, there isn’t that big of a gap between these teams in the AP Preseason Poll.

In fact, six different teams received first-place votes – the most in an AP Preseason Poll since 2016.

No. 1 Texas and No. 2 Penn State were separated by just five points – the tightest gap since 1998.

Plus, over the last 45 years, only five teams ranked No. 1 in the pre-season went on to finish the year at No. 1.

Of course, where you start doesn’t matter nearly as much as where you finish.

The top-ranked Longhorns are a co-favourite to win the FBS National Championship at +600 at FanDuel.

No. 3 Ohio State is a close second choice at +650.

No. 2 Penn State and No. 5 Georgia are right behind them with both teams currently +700 to win the title.

Alabama, which debuted at No. 8 in the AP Preseason Poll, rounds out the top five choices to win the FBS Championship along with No. 4 Clemson at +1100.

While Texas is officially ranked No. 1 and Ohio State is ranked No. 2, both rosters are stacked with talent.

Longhorns QB Arch Manning is the favourite to win the Heisman Trophy at +700 at FanDuel.

Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is the fourth choice to win that award at +1200 and the top non-QB option on the board.

Per the FanDuel traders, Smith is the second-most popular bet to win the Heisman behind Manning.

Ohio State sophomore QB Julian Sayin is also in the Heisman conversation at +2000 to start the season.

The key difference between these rosters is that the Longhorns hype is still untested, while the Buckeyes are coming off a thrilling College Football Playoff National Championship win in January.

Per FanDuel, Ohio State is the most popular pick to win the College Football Playoff National Championship.

17 per cent of the bets and 25 per cent of the handle in that FBS champion market is on the Buckeyes.

Texas is the second-most popular pick with 10 per cent of the bets and 14 per cent of the handle at FanDuel.The Horseshoe is a hostile environment for opponents, and Ohio State will have the home field advantage for the highly anticipated Week 1 showdown.

While Texas fans might take it as a sign of disrespect, this game could have been a pick’em on a neutral field.

Instead, the Buckeyes will enter Week 1 with the pressure of being a home favourite in a match-up with major implications, while the Longhorns will need to ignore the noise as the top ranked team in college football.

When Texas and Ohio State meet on August 30th, it will mark the first time since 1999 that a pair of AP top five teams meet in the month of August.

The 2025 NCAA Football season kicks off with a seismic showdown that will set the tone for both contenders.

While a Week 1 loss won’t make or break the season for either school, there’s no doubt about the potential impact of a statement win.

Whichever team walks out of Columbus with the W will carry the kind of momentum that could propel them to a College Football Playoff National Championship.

I can’t wait for Noon ET on Saturday August 30th.