Army a heavy favourite ahead of 125th meeting with Navy

The first time Army and Navy played football against each other was in 1890.

The forward pass wouldn’t be invented for 16 years, and teams would punt on first or second down in the hopes of flipping field position.

Navy won the opening game of this now historic rivalry 24-0, and according to stories, the Navy men in New York ribbed their Army counterparts so much over the result that Army pulled out every trick in the bag for 1891 to have an advantage in the second iteration of the game.

Army employed one person in 1891 to attend Navy games and take notes, birthing the concept of pre-scouting an opponent. The more you know.

The scouting worked, and Army beat Navy 32-16 in 1891. But over the next four years Army would score a combined 32 points in the four Navy games, going 1-3 along the way.

Navy leads the series 62-55-7

While the stories and box scores from 100-plus years ago seem like a fever dream, the history of this rivalry makes this standalone college football game so unique.

Here is a closer look at this year’s game and some numbers from FanDuel.

Army on the rise

This year, Army will be looking to inch closer to levelling the record as a sizeable favourite.

The Black Knights opened as -2.5 point favourites over Navy and were -142 on the moneyline. However, the spread is now Army -6.5 and -250 on the moneyline.

According to FanDuel, 91 per cent of bets are on Army to cover, with the most popular number (bet on) being Army -4.5. Meanwhile, 92 per cent of the money is also on Army to cover the spread.

On the moneyline, 77 per cent of bets and 89 per cent of the money has landed on Army.

While trailing by seven games in the series, Army has closed the gap since 2016, going 6-2 against Navy and outscoring the Midshipmen 124-106.

Due to the simple offence of running the ball by both teams, these games aren’t usually high scoring.

In fact, the 32-16 score from 1891 was the highest-scoring game in this rivalry until 1951, when Navy beat Army 42-7. Only 16 other games between the two teams have matched that total of 48 points.

This year, the total opened at 41.5 and has ticked down one point, currently sitting at 40.5.

At FanDuel, 67.5 per cent of bets and 82.5 per cent of the money has come in on the under.

Nine of the last 10 meetings between Army and Navy have gone under this number, and 19 of the past 23 Army-Navy games have gone under the total.

Ranked winners

This year marks the 125th meeting between the two schools, and just 20 times has it featured a ranked team by the Associated Press.

The first time was in 1941, when No. 11 Navy beat Army 14-6. The most recent was 2019, when No. 23 Navy won 31-7.

This year, the Army enters the game No. 19 in the country.

When only one of the teams in this game is ranked they are 8-2, with the most recent loss in 2016 when Army upset No. 25 Navy as six-point underdogs.

An opinion you didn’t ask for

This is my favourite college football game of the year.

I’ve done this article before. I’ve made TikToks about it. I just love this game.

Earlier this year, I was one of millions of people to download the new college football video game and decided to lead Army in an online dynasty against my friends. (It’s not going great because I stink at recruiting.)

As an Army fan, I have shouted (and tweeted), “Go Army, beat Navy!” for years, but not this year. This feels different.

Army is ranked, they just won an American Athletic Conference championship, and all the signs point to them.

But when people zig, I like to zag, and I’m going to take Navy plus the points this year.

Army is the No. 1 team in the country running the ball, but Navy isn’t far behind at No. 8.

Sure, Army has won six of the past eight in this matchup, but they only won two of those games by more than six points.

At -104 I’m tempted to wait and see if this Navy number gets to +7 before playing the spread, as they have only lost by seven or more to Army four times since 1990.

Navy also enters this game fresh, having not played on championship week, unlike Army, which is entering with the momentum of a championship win but surely a little more banged up.

Ask my buddy Daniel, who was 11-1 with Navy when we met in our online dynasty about the beatdown my 7-5 Army squad put on him.

This game just means more. Throw the numbers away. Navy might win outright.