Bob Weeks Picks Six – PGA Championship

Last Week: A solid week even if we didn’t get the winner. We had Patrick Cantlay for a top 10 and added a couple of prop wins: Rory McIlroy under 67.5 in the first round (he shot 66), and Corey Conners as the top Canadian.

This Week: The year’s second major is upon us at Quail Hollow, that is if the weatherman co-operates. Big downpours hit the course on Monday leading to a closure and more wet stuff is expected throughout the week. That means a long course will play even longer. A regular stop on the PGA Tour, the layout is well known by PGA Tour veterans and is famous for the treacherous three-hole finish. It will be undoubtedly toughened up for the major.

To win:
Rory McIlroy +450

The only player who can still win the Grand Slam in a season this year, McIlroy comes in riding the high of his Master victory. The course also suits his tastes as he’s won four times at Quail Hollow including last year’s Truist Championship. He’s -102 over 50 rounds here.

Justin Thomas +2000
Notched his first win in three years at the RBC Heritage to get his game back on track. He was also the winner of the PGA Championship the last time it was held here. Putter has been shining going from 174th in SG: Putting last year to 20th this year.

Top 10
Xander Schauffele +175

After an injury delayed his season start, Schauffele has gradually worked himself back into form with top-20 finishes in each of his last four starts. The defending champion has been runner-up in his last two starts at Quail Hollow and was 3-1-0 in the 2022 Presidents Cup here.

Joaquin Nieman +240

Some good odds for Niemann who presents an interesting case. He has won three times on LIV this season, but has only finished inside the top 20 at a major championship once. In his last seven major starts, a tie for 22nd was his best finish. Yet the Chilean is simply too good and this line is too eye-catching to pass up.

Top 20
Tommy Fleetwood +115

Coming in off back-to-back top-10 finishes and a combined 25 under par, Fleetwood is still looking for that first PGA Tour win and this would definitely qualify. He has played well here in the past with his last two appearances at Quail Hollow yielding a tie for 13th and a tie for fifth.

Shane Lowry +150
Not the best record at Quail Hollow, but coming in with a hot hand. Tied for second last week at the Truist Championship and has seven top-20 finishes in his last eight starts.

Props

Top LIV Player

Patrick Reed +1200

Three top-10s on LIV this year; a longer shot but line is interesting

Top Canadian
Mackenzie Hughes +360

A member at Quail Hollow and had a playoff-second place last week

Bogey-Free Round
Rory McIlroy +1000
Loves Quail so should have a good shot at a bogey-free round