Game of Throws: Will Bills end Super Bowl drought?

The Buffalo Bills are the most popular bet to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl at FanDuel.

It’s not Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

It’s not Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens.

It’s not even Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals, although Burrow remains FanDuel’s most popular bet to win the NFL regular season MVP award.

Forget Scott Norwood.

Forget the Music City Miracle.

Forget the sting of four straight Super Bowl losses.

One in every four wagers in FanDuel’s AFC Championship winner market is on Buffalo.

The runners-up teams of the 90’s are a distant memory, Josh Allen has Superman’s cape, and Bills Mafia loves getting their team at +350 to reach the Super Bowl.

I get it.

Some of my closest friends belong to Bills Mafia.

It doesn’t matter how many times they lose to Mahomes and the Chiefs in the playoffs because Allen is healthy and that’s enough reason to believe “THIS IS OUR YEAR”.

Maybe I’m just worn down by all the messages in the group chat over the past few months, but I’ll confess I have a bit of a soft spot for the Bills, too.

It’s like watching the final season of The Sopranos.

We all know this story doesn’t come with a happy ending, but that doesn’t mean we aren’t willing to believe Tony could survive and find a way to live happily ever after.

The FanDuel traders told us that Buffalo is the most popular pick to win the AFC Championship with 25.5 per cent of the bets in that market.

The Ravens remain the favourite to win the AFC title at +340 as the second-most popular pick.

The Chiefs, which have won five AFC Championships and three Super Bowls over the past six seasons, trail Buffalo and Baltimore as the third-most popular pick at +410.

No other teams are shorter than +1100 to win the AFC Championship at FanDuel.

What do I think about the chances the Bills win the AFC?

I still have concerns about a Buffalo defence that has repeatedly let them down when it matters the most.

Last season, the Bills defence conceded the most touchdown passes and the highest completion rate to opposing QBs since head coach Sean McDermott’s arrival back in 2017.

Ultimately, it was the defence that burned Buffalo again in a 32-29 loss to Kansas City in the AFC Championship.

McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane went all-in to address that side of the football by using each of their first five draft picks on defensive players.

The Bills also signed defensive end Joey Bosa, defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi, as well as cornerbacks Tre’Davious White and Dane Jackson.

Now we wait to find out how all those additions mesh and whether it leads to a significant improvement for the Buffalo defence.

McDermott’s job might depend on it.

The fact that Buffalo didn’t use those resources to find more weapons for Allen is understandable considering he’s coming off an MVP season despite the prevailing expectation that the offence would regress following the losses of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis last offseason.

The Bills did lock up running back James Cook with a four-year, $48 million contract extension.

They also added Canadian wide receiver Josh Palmer.

Palmer will be pressed into a bigger role early on as Khalil Shakir recovers from a high-ankle sprain.

Shakir led Buffalo with 76 receptions for 821 yards and four touchdowns last season.

The Bills were one of only two NFL teams that did not have more than one receiver register at least 35 catches.

Shakir, Palmer, and 2024 second round pick Keon Coleman are all expected to hit that mark this season.

Jackson is the favourite to win NFL MVP at +430.

Allen and Burrow are right behind him at +600.

However, FanDuel’s betting splits tell a deeper story.

While Allen is technically the second choice to win MVP behind Jackson, he doesn’t rank among the five most popular bets to win that award at FanDuel.

Of course, part of the equation is how difficult it is to repeat as the NFL regular season MVP.

At the same time, it’s interesting that after exceeding all expectations last season, the prevailing opinion is that the Buffalo offence won’t miss a beat if Allen is healthy this season.

We won’t waste time on what happens if he isn’t.

The Bills are also the shortest favourite to win their division of any team in the NFL at -270.

The New England Patriots are a distant second choice at +550 to win the AFC East.

The chalk price hasn’t stopped FanDuel bettors from betting on Buffalo to win its division.

Per the FanDuel traders, 42 per cent of all AFC East winner bets are on the Bills.

Nearly half of all bets (48%) on the AFC’s No. 1 seed are on Buffalo.

The Bills have an MVP-calibre quarterback, a deep roster that has the potential to take a major step forward on the defence, and they should benefit from playing in one of the weaker divisions in football again this season.

I’m not betting on the Bills to win the AFC Championship.

I’m also not rushing to bet any other team to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Baltimore, Kansas City, and Buffalo are the obvious top three choices, and the market is priced that way.

A lot can change over the course of a grueling 17-game season, and there isn’t enough value to back any of those three teams at their current prices.

If pressed to make a bet, I might be willing to consider taking a chance on the Denver Broncos at +1300.

The Broncos have a rising star in second-year QB Bo Nix, one of the best defences in the NFL, and as is the case with most contending teams – they have a legitimate case as long as they stay healthy.

I’m willing to bet Denver to win the AFC title at +1300 will seem like pretty good value by the time that we flip the calendar to 2026.

As for the Bills, I’ll parlay Buffalo to win the AFC East with the New Orleans Saints and New York Jets to miss the playoffs at -147.

Yes, we can now parlay NFL futures on the FanDuel app.

I’ll also lock in Buffalo to go 6-0 in AFC East regular season games at +380 as a potential value play.

FanDuel Futures is Tuesday August 26th.

The Bills are the most popular pick to win the AFC Championship at FanDuel.

If you had to make just one pick on FanDuel Futures Day, would you jump on Buffalo to win the AFC Championship, or is there a better bet out there?

Hit me up @Domenic_Padula on X and let me know your thoughts.

This could be the year Allen and company end the franchise’s Super Bowl drought.

I want to know if you’ll be cheering for Bills Mafia to make history – and break a lot more tables in 2026.