By The Numbers: Blue Jays’ road to the playoffs
Published
The Toronto Blue Jays have 10 games remaining in the regular season, with their playoff hopes firmly in their control.
The Jays have won five straight games and currently hold a one-game lead over the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers for the second American League wild-card spot.
All 10 remaining games will come against AL East Division rivals, with four coming against the New York Yankees, and six against the Tampa Bay Rays, who are battling the Baltimore Orioles for the division lead. The final six games of the Jays’ regular season will be home contests at the Rogers Centre.
Despite winning five consecutive games against the Yankees and Boston Red Sox, Toronto holds a 17-25 record against division opponents this season. Their combined record against the Yankees and Rays is an even 8-8.
Blue Jays Remaining Opponents
| Opponent | Record | Win Percentage | Run Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees (4) | 5-4 | .556 | +14 |
| Tampa Bay Rays (6) | 3-4 | .429 | +9 |
The Blue Jays have been able to take advantage of teams outside of the postseason picture (56-31) but have struggled against playoff-calibre teams. As of Thursday morning, the Blue Jays have a 29-36 record against teams sitting in playoff position.
Second baseman Whit Merrifield says the team is starting to click in all facets but needs to improve against teams playing for something at the end of the season.
“Everything seems to be trending in our direction,” said Merrifield. “Pitching has been good, offence has been good, defence has been good, base running has been good. We’ve got to continue to do that against teams that are … more engaged in what the end of the season holds, if I can say that as politely as I could.”
The Rangers and Mariners each have a record of 84-68 but have seven head-to-head matchups remaining, meaning one of the two clubs will have to lose at least four times and finish with a minimum of 72 losses.
Mariners Remaining Opponents
| Opponent | Record | Win Percentage | Run Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers (7) | 1-5 | .167 | -18 |
| Houston Astros (3) | 8-2 | .800 | +26 |
Rangers Remaining Opponents
| Opponent | Record | Win Percentage | Run Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners (7) | 5-1 | .833 | +18 |
| Los Angeles Angels (3) | 5-5 | .500 | +24 |
With a record of 85-67, the Blue Jays only need to finish 6-4 to guarantee a spot in the playoffs. According to FanGraphs, Toronto has an 84.1 per cent chance of making the postseason, ahead of both the Mariners (60.7 per cent) and Rangers (64.6 per cent).
It is the highest the Jays playoff odds have been since April 30, and a stark contrast to the season-low 33.6 per cent chance the club was given following a four-game sweep at the hands of the Rangers last week.
The Rangers have the easiest remaining schedule (.503) amongst the three wild-card contenders, thanks to a series against the Los Angeles Angels, who sit outside the playoffs at 69-83. The Blue Jays and Mariners remaining opponents have the same winning percentage at .554.
If playoff positioning remains the same, the Jays would travel to Tampa Bay for a best-of-three series against the Rays.