Canada continues to lose ground in net

Whenever Canada loses a hockey game on an international stage, eyebrows are raised. So, losing by three goals to Czechia at a tournament as prominent as the World Juniors means questions are going to be asked.

It’s not the first time the Canadian team has suffered a disappointing loss at a high-profile tournament, and it certainly won’t be the last. As hockey grows at the international level, other countries are dressing skilled and capable lineups that can skate for 60 minutes with Canada on some nights. It’s a big win for the sport, and a big win for a professional league like the NHL, which relies on domestic and imported talent to grow its product.

But it also comes at the cost of Canada having a tougher road at all of these tournaments – losses that used to be exceedingly rare are now they are part of the competitive balance.

Where has Canada’s competitive advantage slipped over these years? I continue to look squarely at the goaltending position – both the successful development of goaltenders from American and European markets, and the lack of success in developing goaltenders in Canada.

If you look at Canada’s 5-2 loss against Czechia on Monday, it had a feel similar to many losses in the past – in most cases, Canada outskates and outchances the opponent, but simply doesn’t get the same calibre of goaltending. Goaltending is the great equalizer in hockey; always has been, always will be.

It’s not that Canada is in a brief lull of sorts where a handful of top-tier developmental goaltenders haven’t panned out. Canada’s grip on the goaltending position has been weakening for decades now. Look at the NHL for an example. Twenty years ago, Canadian goaltenders accounted for nearly 60 per cent of all usage at the position. This year, that number has been cut in half – 30 per cent of usage can be attributed to Canadian goaltenders, nearly 20 percentage points lower than their European counterparts:

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In one breath, Canada seeing less relative usage over time makes sense – the NHL has increasingly become a global league, accessing talent from dozens of countries, a far cry from the North American-centric league of yesteryear. Even if Canada’s development had held at status quo, some Canadian goaltenders would have lost minutes proportional to the European counterparts.

But consider their trend against that of the United States. Hockey is growing south of the border at a fast rate, too, but notice how American goaltenders are also eating into the Canadian market share. You may be able to attribute some of that to growth and variance in playing populations, but again: NHL front offices, more and more, are betting on goaltenders who aren’t developed in Canada.

The other component that I think is alarming to some degree is that performance across the Canadian goaltenders – however many there are in a given year – is waning. Yes, there are types like Carter Hart in Philadelphia, Tristan Jarry in Pittsburgh, and Darcy Kuemper in Washington having great seasons. But compare Canadian stop rates to European and American stop rates over the same time period, and notice the degradation:

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Save percentage can be reflective of broader defensive performance and shouldn’t be a standalone measure of an individual goaltender’s play, but the aggregate results over thousands of shots are certainly interesting.

In short: Canadian goaltenders have brought up the rear in save percentage relative to European and American counterparts for the past 15 years, save for a couple of strong seasons in the 2014-16 window. I remind you: this was also Carey Price’s peak in Montreal, which is important context. (Only two Canadian goaltenders – March-Andre Fleury in 2020-21 and Braden Holtby in 2015-16 – have captured the Vezina Trophy since Price’s landmark 2014-15 season.)

Canada remains the best hockey country in the world, and there is still daylight between them and the competition in chase. But if you are looking for reasons why the gap has been closed, look no further than the goaltending position. Not only has Canada given up a lot of ground here, but it’s also reasonable to start expecting the average international matchup will see them at a goaltending disadvantage – that’s how much the trend has changed over time.

Data via Hockey Reference, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, HockeyDB