Countdown to Free Agent Frenzy: The argument for short-term deals
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The NHL's off-season has arrived for all 32 teams who are preparing for the NHL Draft starting on June 27 and Free Agent Frenzy on July 1. TSN.ca keeps you up to date with all the latest rumours and speculation from around the NHL beat.
The Short-Term Argument
TSN Hockey Insider Pierre LeBrun wrote over the weekend in The Athletic that Mitch Marner could potentially sign a short-term contract in free agency this summer with a cap hit in the area of $12 to $13 million, setting him up for another pay day in a couple of years as the salary cap continues to rise.
LeBrun lists the Vegas Golden Knights, Dallas Stars and Los Angeles Kings as teams he believes are high on Marner's list as the Toronto Maple Leafs forward gets closer to market.
LeBrun's colleague at The Athletic, James Mirtle, dove deeper into the argument for players such as Marner or Edmonton Oilers superstar Connor McDavid to sign short-term rather than take eight- or seven-year terms.
Mirtle notes that even if Marner signed a four-year deal with a $13 million cap hit, he'd hit free agency again at 32 in 2029 and could still land an eight-year deal at a cap hit potentially as high as $17 million at that time. But, if he signed a seven-year deal now at 28, he'd be 35 when the deal expires and unlikely to land a term longer than three or four years on his next deal. The difference? Possibly as high as $188 million compared to $131 million.
“I think that makes a lot of sense. If those (top) players want to maximize their lifetime earnings, they should sign for three or four years now and then do seven or eight years,” an anonymous player agent told Mirtle. “We advise high-end players about this all the time. But most of them go for the security.”
Jumping by $7.5 million to $95.5 million this summer, the NHL has already announced the ceiling is expected to rise to $104 million the following season and $113.5 million in 2027-28. TSN Hockey Insider Chris Johnston has reported that the cap could even potentially rise higher than that.
Whether Marner will take a short-term deal may remain a question into the month of July 1, with TSN Hockey Insider Darren Dreger noting that the winger is expected to take his time before signing and could wait until mid-July to sign his next deal.
Can the Sens keep Giroux?
The Ottawa Senators opened contract talks with veteran centre Claude Giroux soon after their season ended, but with just eight days remaining before July 1, he is still a pending unrestricted free agent.
Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia reports the belief around the league is Giroux is looking for a contract in the neighbourhood of $4 million. Garrioch surveyed league executives who believe the 37-year-old should carry a $3 million salary with bonuses that could bring his total to $4.5 million or $5 million.
Garrioch adds that despite a recent reports, the Senators have not reached an agreement yet on a base salary with Giroux. He notes that Giroux's agent, Pat Brisson, negotiated the bonus-heavy deal signed by Jonathan Toews with the Winnipeg Jets last week.
Giroux had 15 goals and 50 points in 81 games with the Ottawa Senators last season. He added a goal and five points in six playoff games before his team was eliminated by the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round.
The 5-foot-11 winger is coming off a three-year, $19.5 million deal with an annual cap hit of $6.5 million.
Ottawa has $10.75 million in cap space this summer, but team owner Michael Andlauer said earlier this month that the team does not intend to spend to the cap.
“We’re a small-market team,” Andlauer said at the team's alumni golf tournament. “We did well in the playoffs with our gate, but some teams did two-and-a-half times more revenue than we did. So, it gives you a perspective of where HRR (hockey-related revenue) is and where we fit in.
“I’m OK with that. I think we’ll be competitive. That’s why Belleville is such an important piece in ensuring that we draft and develop properly, so we have the advantage of having great players at an entry-level salary. It takes time. We’re close to the cap over the next couple of years.
“We have a core group of players who are getting into their prime, and we want to make sure we support them and make sure that it allows us to get over the top and win the Stanley Cup. That’s what we’re going to do.”
Also slated for unrestricted free agency on July 1 are forward Matthew Highmore and Hayden Hodgson and blueliners Travis Hamonic and Dennis Gilbert. Defenceman Donovan Sebrango is also in need of a new deal as a restricted free agents.
Drafted 22nd overall by the Philadelphia Flyers in 2006, Giroux has 365 goals and 1,116 points in 1,263 career games split between the Flyers, Florida Panthers, and Senators.
Will Tkachuk miss time?
The two-time defending champion Florida Panthers could be short-handed to start next season as forward Matthew Tkachuk is weighing surgery after playing through injuries in the playoffs.
Tkachuk said he's 50-50 on undergoing the knife, with more tests required to see if it's necessary. Given the lateness of any operation, it could put his status for the start of the 2025-26 campaign in question.
Panthers head coach Paul Maurice revealed last week that Tkachuk dealt with a sports hernia and torn adductor muscle on the same side, referring to his star winger as "a mess."
"That’s the medical term: He was a mess," Maurice said Wednesday, one day after the Panthers wrapped up their second straight Stanley Cup victory over the Edmonton Oilers, taking the title in six games.
The 27-year-old from Scottsdale, Ariz. had 22 goals and 35 assists for 57 points in 52 games during the regular season. He also tallied eight goals and 15 assists for 23 points in 23 games during Florida's championship run.
He is under contract through the 2029-30 season at a cap hit of $9.5 million and has reached the Stanley Cup Final in all three of his seasons with Florida since being traded from the Calgary Flames.