3rd And 1: Best Bets for Week 10 of the CFL season

Vince Lombardi gets credit for a lot of great lines and last week our pursuit paid off. 

Not only can we touch glasses for our first 4-0 week of the season, but we’re also celebrating Davis Sanchez’ birthday.  And like Chez poignantly predicted two weeks ago about the Ti-Cats in BC: “they can’t make this total high enough.” It’s hammer time.

BC Lions at Hamilton Tiger-Cats

Can’t touch this. The Hammer is going to be electric for the cat fight on Thursday Night Football.  Hometown Hero Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be in the building.  Greatness is there to see greatness.  The two best quarterbacks in the CFL faceoff for the second time and they combined for 70 points two weeks ago.  Bo Levi Mitchell is arguably playing the best football of his career, and the future hall of famer has every reason to elevate even further with the extra attention.  That said, the schedule makers served the Ti-Cats a tough luck sandwich.  After three straight road games, Hamilton returns home on a short week to play a team that’s well rested coming off a bye.  The Lions have had extra time to lament letting the lead slip away late against the Ti-Cats.  The dogs are barking at me this week but I’m not betting against Bo after consecutive fourth quarter comebacks.  It looked like the win streak was coming to an end in Edmonton after a special teams turnover cost the Ti-Cats the lead, but Bo led a game-winning touchdown drive capped by a 27-yard strike to Time White to seal their sixth straight victory.  I think BC can score early and the points should pile up late. 

The Pick: Over 55.5 Total Points

PLAYER PROP:  TIM WHITE OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS

With all the attention being paid to Kenny Lawler, and even while Kiondre Smith has exploded in the last two games, Tim White has quietly gone about his business as one of the league’s best pass catchers.  The 2023 leader in receiving yards has hauled in 13 straight balls from Bo without an incompletion.  He’s had at least six catches and 78 yards in three straight games, including the game-winning touchdown as mentioned, which was his second time in the endzone last week.  Lawler has earned the double coverage he’s getting, if the Lions try to limit Smith after he torched them for 14 catches two weeks ago, it could lead to even more targets for trusty Tim.

Edmonton Elks at Montreal Alouettes

I loved this line at +4.5.  Am I still on the Elks under a field goal?  You bet your antlers I am.  Cody Fajardo has a chip.  He’s returning to Montreal after losing his starting job to Davis Alexander, then being traded for McLeod Bethel-Thompson in the offseason.  McBeth has gone 1-3 as the Als starter while Alexander’s been out and it was ugly last week.  He was held to 126 passing yards with one interception in the Als 34-6 loss to the Riders.  Meanwhile, this the third week in a row that I’ll say: the Elks look like a different team with Fajardo under centre.  He completed his first 16 pass attempts last week and gave the defence a chance against the Ti-Cats.  Speaking of defence, what has been the Als strength, especially with Alexander out, is now missing two key parts of the secondary with Ento and Duquoy on the sideline.

THE PICK: ELKS +2.5

Ottawa Redblacks at Toronto Argonauts

The Redblacks came through with a much-needed win (and against the spread) last week over the Stamps.  But the offence that I keep heralding still hasn’t done much.  PJ Walker threw three picks in his first CFL start, one that was returned by Ottawa for a touchdown, accounting for the lopsided victory.  The Argos also scored 31 points last week, but in a loss.  And they similarly relied on a pick six to get to their total.   Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in most offensive categories.  Only Edmonton has fewer net yards this season.  If you can’t move the ball, it’s hard to score.  Touchdowns on defence and special teams don’t usually happen each week.  That’s what I’m hoping.  Cheers.

THE PICK: UNDER 52.5 Total Points