3rd And 1: Best Bets for Week 4 of the CFL season

It’s only Week 4 and the injury bug has already infected half the league’s starting quarterbacks. Fifty per cent, or .500, is also our hit rate for 3rd and 1 in 2025 (6-6 overall, 5-4 on game spreads) which, as an aside, always looks better in terms of batting average.

Tre Ford cost us last week’s player prop pick by throwing for almost 200 yards in the 4th quarter.  The Elks still failed to cover the 5.5-point spread.  This week in Winnipeg, Edmonton is a double-digit dog, biggest of the season so far.  The Bombers have won and covered each of their games, but both have been against the Lions. I may still plug my nose and take the points, but for now, let’s look at a prop to kickoff Canada Day Weekend.

Player Prop: Keric Wheatfall Over 68.5 Receiving yards

Wheatfall has been a revelation thus far.  He’s led the Bombers in catches and receiving yards each week.  He’s 6th in the league in that category despite playing just 2 games and he’s gone well over this total each time.  With Nic Demski questionable, there will be even more targets to take advantage of.  Dalton Schoen’s total is a tick higher than Wheatfall, but he has yet to get anywhere near it in either contest.  Perhaps Wheatfall has played his best two games of the season already, or maybe his total will never be this low again.  Looking at Fanduel’s weekly specials, Wheatfall to lead the week in receiving yards at +1100 could be worth a sprinkle.

Montreal Alouettes at Hamilton Tiger-Cats

Davis Alexander is officially OUT for Friday Night Football in Hamilton.  The Als are still the favourites because the Ti-Cats are still win-less.  Kenny Lawler’s splashy acquisition hasn’t translated to a tsunami of wins.  Maybe two losses ought not to induce panic, but Hamilton cut starting middle linebacker Kyle Wilson without an obvious replacement on a defence that’s allowed an average 33 points a game, second worst in the league.  Meanwhile, the Als are elite.  Even without Alexander, McLeod Bethel-Thompson should look better than he did last week after taking a full repertoire of practice reps as the starter.  I haven’t even mentioned the most dominant unit.  Montreal’s defence is better than anything Bo Levi Mitchell has seen this season.  It’s limiting opposing offences to a league-low 307 yards a game and as I mentioned last week, new this year is their ability to get after the quarterback.  Then, they went out and doubled their sack total to a league high 10.  They’re also tied for the league lead with 10 forced turnovers.  The depth of this defence can absorb their injuries on both sides of the ball.

THE PICK: ALOUETTES -2.5

BC Lions at Saskatchewan Roughriders

With both starting quarterbacks questionable, the spread has tilted towards the Lions.  They held Nathan Rourke out of last week’s loss to the Bombers despite reports that he wanted to play.  He’s practiced in a limited capacity which is more than Trevor Harris, who has been sidelined all week with a possible concussion.  Considering Harris’ history, and his importance to the Riders Grey Cup aspirations, there’s a good chance he sits on Saturday.  Make way for Jake Maier.  The former Stamps starter was 17-for-28 with 2 interceptions in two preseason appearances.  If Rourke forces his way onto the field opposite Maier, this spread could shrink a little further.

THE PICK: LIONS +3

Toronto Argonauts at Ottawa Redblacks

A rare CFL Sunday night-er in honour of the signing of the Constitution Act (BNA Act) on July 1st, 1867. Ryan Dinwiddie wasn’t in the mood for celebrating after last week’s loss.  He ripped his team for their effort, and for being underweight in his postgame comments.  I don’t condone body-shaming but I can’t blame the Argos coach for being upset.  To quote Phil Kessel: “It’s not good, eh?”  The defending champs were stripped of some winning parts and are still without Chad Kelly who’s yet to return from last year’s broken leg.  Dru Brown is still limited with a hip injury for Ottawa, but Dustin Crum led a run first offence that was enough to win last week.  Even if Brown is out, Wynton McManis is also likely to miss his second straight game with a knee injury.  That’s a green light for the Redblacks’ ground game to bully the Boatmen. 

THE PICK: REDBLACKS -2.5