3rd and 1: Fresh start for Fajardo and Elks in Week 8 

Back in black

I hit the sack

I’ve been too long, I’m glad to be back…

The start of AC/DC’s classic rock anthem almost rang true for yours truly last week.  With Kalil Pimpleton’s receptions total juiced to the over, I attached his prop to the Redblacks alternate spread of +7.5 at even money. I could have hit the sack with a winning record.  Instead, Dru Brown gets hurt, the Redblacks fall by 15 and our overall record remains even on the season. Black is where we plan to get back to in week 8. 

 Montreal Alouettes at Calgary Stampeders

The Stamps have gone from tied for the longest odds to win the Grey Cup, to now riding right on the feathers of the Alouettes for the shortest odds to win it all.  Calgary has covered the spread in each of their five wins. Their only loss straight up or against the spread this season was the only game in which they’ve been the favourite! It was week 3 against the Redblacks, a game in which Dustin Crum managed to throw for just 111 yards and still win.

This week, the Stamps find themselves as the favourite for just the second time. The Als are hoping three time’s is a charm for McLeod Bethel-Thompson. He’s 0-2 as the starter this season. The Als are averaging 18.5 points a game with the veteran under centre, compared to the almost 33 points a game they were producing with Davis Alexander at quarterback. McBeth is also up against an elite defence. The Stamps are the only team in the league allowing fewer than 20 points a game this season. They’ve only allowed 7 touchdowns to opposing offences, five fewer than any other team in the league.  The Als are going to struggle to score. But so too could the Stamps.  Montreal allows the second fewest points per game this season and the fewest yards.  Without their leader on offence, I expect this unit to step up.  They could cover the spread, but if they do it will likely be because of defence. That goes for both teams.  

The Pick: Under 48.5 Points 

PLAYER PROP:  Austin Mack 5+ receptions (-105)

While Calgary’s defence isn’t allowing many points this season, it’s third last in the league in yards allowed.  Bend but don’t break could describe the Stamps style, and I think Austin Mack can find the bends.  He missed both games that Bethel-Thompson has started but Mack has the skill set for the veteran QB to exploit.  In the slot, sitting down in space and off quick curls, Mack could be just what McBeth need to find his rhythm. Tyson Philpot is out with a hamstring injury making Mack the obvious number one option.

Edmonton Elks at Saskatchewan Roughriders

This line has come down from 9.5 with the confirmation that Cody Fajardo will start for the Elks at quarterback.  Fresh off a bye, Edmonton gets a fresh start.  Tre Ford went two-and-out on seven of nine drives before Fajardo entered in the fourth quarter two weeks ago. He immediately orchestrated a (meaningless) touchdown drive.  We know Cody can command the huddle.  Let’s see what he can do with the full playbook at his disposal.  Let’s not forget, this is a return to Regina for Fajardo, a place where he’s started more games than any other in his CFL career.

The Pick: Elks +7.5 

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at BC Lions

The Ti-Cats are purring on offence. They have more points and more yards per game than any other team in the CFL. Bo Levi Mitchell leads the league in passing yards and touchdowns and Kenny Lawler looks unstoppable. They’ve averaged almost 35 points a game while winning four in a row.  Let’s take a closer at those wins.  Two were against the Redblacks.  One was against the Argos who were missing Wynton McManis.  They also beat the Als without Davis Alexander.  Only Nathan Rourke is averaging more yards per game than Bo this season and after overcoming injury, I believe the best of Rourke is still to come.

The Pick: Lions -2.5