Betting Breakdown: Scheffler's odds to win the Grand Slam in 2024

In most years, the second major of the season is anyone’s to win. But not this one. There is only one obvious favourite as we head to Louisville this week. 

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler has been the best ball-striker on Earth for over two years. And after coming up short for nearly 12 months, a putter change before the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March has seen him get back into the winner’s circle. 

Scheffler went almost a full calendar year between his sixth (2023 Players) and seventh PGA Tour wins (2024 API).

He won the Hero World Challenge in December 2023, but it’s not an official event. 

However, wins eight, nine and 10 would quickly follow. 

The most notable win in the stretch came when he ran away with the Masters, winning the Green Jacket for the second time in his career, this time by four shots.

Now, with another major on the horizon, our friends at FanDuel have priced up a market I never thought I’d see. 

FanDuel has Scheffler listed at 40-to-1 (+4000) to win the Grand Slam in 2024, something no golfer has done in the sport's history. 

Join me today as I highlight the history of golf’s grand slam, give some context to Scheffler’s dominance and explain why Rory McIlroy is potentially responsible for some of Scottie’s recent success. 

WHAT IS THE GRAND SLAM 

While it’s mostly known as a home run with the bases loaded – and a great menu item if you ever find yourself at a Denny’s – golf’s club of Grand Slam members is extremely small. 

In men’s professional golf, the Grand Slam means winning all four major championships: The Masters Tournament, U.S. Open Championship, The Open Championship and PGA Championship.

Only five golfers have won all four of golf's modern majors at any time during their careers. Those players are: Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Gary Player, Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods. 

The closest any of these men have come to winning all four in the same year came in 2000 when Tiger won the final three majors of the season. Woods would go on to win the 2001 Masters – the first major the following year – and become the only person to ever hold all four titles at the same time, which has now been deemed the “Tiger Slam.” 

All of golf’s greats haven’t been able to do it. So why could Scheffler? 

HOW GOOD HAS SCHEFFLER ACTUALLY BEEN? 

Here is where Scheffler ranks in a few key stats on the PGA Tour this year:

SG: Tee-to-Green: 1

Birdie Average: 1 

Par 4 Scoring: 1 

Par 5 Scoring: 1 

SG: Approach: 1

SG: Off-the-Tee: 2

Par 3 Scoring: 4

SG: Around the Green: 5

I like to discuss strokes gained a lot in these columns, and there’s no better example of Scheffler’s dominance this year than comparing his numbers to the second-best player in the field. 

Scheffler has averaged 2.851 strokes gained per round this year. Second on the list is Xander Schauffele at 1.990, and Rory McIlroy at 1.449. 

The 1.402 gap between first and third is the same as the gap between McIlroy and Min Woo Lee, who comes in at 102nd.

I mentioned earlier that Scheffler has been the best ball-striker alive for the past two years and the numbers show that, in 2023 he led the PGA Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green and did it by another wide margin. 

The issue in 2023 was putting. 

Here is where Scheffler ranked in a few key putting stats on the PGA Tour in 2023: 

One-Putt Perfomance: 136

Putts Per Round: 110 

SG: Putting: 162

4-8 feet: 185

10-15 feet: 174

20-25 feet: 143 

He still managed to win twice in 2023, but both came early in the season, and a 12-month winless drought was snapped this year after he finally changed putters. 

Something that might have not happened if it weren’t for… Rory McIlroy? 

WHY RORY, WHY? 

For months, Scheffler would show up to golf tournaments, hit the ball better than almost everyone there, putt worse than almost anyone, and finish somewhere inside the top 10, leaving each event slightly more frustrated than the one before. 

For context, last year on the PGA Tour, Scheffler ranked first in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and was 95th in SG: Putting. 

This year looked like it would be a repeat of 2023. Scheffler opened 2024 with five straight Top 20 finishes, four of which were top 10s. In those five events, he was a below-average putter compared to the field. His best performance came at Pebble Beach when he gained 0.837 putting over the three rounds. 

Everything came to a boiling point for Scheffler at The Genesis Invitational. Scheffler finished tied for 10th but lost over four strokes on the greens and was dead-last in putting when looking at everyone that made the cut. 

For the first time in a long time, we saw outbursts from Scheffler. Usually an unflappable guy, Scheffler was throwing golf balls, yelling at his caddie and was visibly losing it. 

Enter McIlroy. 

That week, McIlroy joined the broadcast to discuss the current state of golf. While McIlroy was being interviewed, he was asked about Scheffler’s putting struggles. 

Here’s what he had to say:

“Yeah, we’ve all been through it,” McIlroy started. “I’ve certainly been through my fair share of putting woes through the years. And I finally feel like I’ve broken through and become a pretty consistent putter.

“For me, going to a mallet was a big change," added McIlroy. "I really persisted with the blade putter for a long time. But I just feel like your stroke has to be so perfect to start the ball on line, where the mallet just gives you a little bit more margin for error.” 

If you read between the lines, this was Rory telling Scottie to check his ego and make this aspect of the game easier on himself. 

And if you’re asking for my opinion, Scottie listened. 

We’ll never know if Scheffler heard McIlroy’s comments, but sure enough, three weeks later, he showed up to Bay Hill with a mallet putter. 

It started horribly, with Scheffler losing 1.589 strokes to the field putting in the opening round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. However, after his round, he spoke with the media about how good the club felt in his hand after the shaky start. 

That’s when the floodgates opened. 

Scheffler would gain strokes on the green the next three days and go on to win the event by five. 

He followed that up the next week by becoming the first player ever to repeat at The Players Championship. 

Three weeks later, he won the Masters. Then he did all of the fun stuff that comes with winning the Masters, went home to spend some time with his then-pregnant wife and rolled into RBC Heritage the Wednesday afternoon and sleepwalked his way to a win. 

Before the event started Scheffler told the media the first time he’d see the front-nine that week would be when he played it Thursday morning. 

Sure, it speaks to the level of trust between him and caddie Ted Scott, but it also shows how outside of his process Scheffler was that week. 

He won by three. 

Since switching to a mallet putter, he has won four of his five starts and gained strokes putting in all five. The lone event he didn’t win came at the Houston Open, when he lost to Stephan Jaeger by one stroke. 

WILL SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER WIN THE GRAND SLAM IN 2024? 

As mentioned earlier, FanDuel has Scheffler listed at +4000 to win the grand slam in 2024. 

The number represents an implied probability of 2.44 per cent.   

I don’t want to say that the number feels short, but considering it’s literally never happened before, I haven’t exactly rushed to make this wager. 

Also, he has 10 PGA Tour wins, with all 10 having come within the months of February, March and April. 

Happy May 13th, by the way. 

He also hasn’t played since the RBC Heritage and is coming into the week fresh off his wife's birth of their first child. 

I have never had a kid. But my sister has three. 

I’m not sure how much sleep Scottie is getting right now. 

I envision a slow start for Scheffler, but I also expect to see his name rise on the leaderboard as the week progresses. 

All of this said, he’s a name I have on my very short list of guys I can see winning this tournament.

And, because I am a man of content, the idea of him winning and me getting to hold onto a 40-1 ticket into the U.S. Open is almost too good to pass on. 

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