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Betting Breakdown: Three 3-Balls to consider for Day 2 at Canadian Open
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The first round of the Canadian Open is over, and just as we predicted, 42-year-old Englishman David Skinns is atop the leaderboard.
If you’re like me and your Thursday first-round leader bets didn’t get home - congrats on mastering time travel to anyone who bet Skinns FRL - then you might be searching for a few winners today.
Luckily, we have a full day of 3-balls, so let’s get to three that have caught my attention before they tee off this afternoon
WHAT IS A 3-BALL
Before I get to my selections for the day, let’s do a crash course on 3-balls.
In the opening two rounds of a PGA Tour event, players go out in groups of three. Sportsbooks take those groups and create individual markets for them.
Due to the volatility of the sport, every player in the group is usually listed at plus money. Any golfer in this event could have the low round of the day. That’s just how talented everyone is.
But to win your three-ball, you don’t need the best round of the day; you just need to be better than the two you’re paired with.
Example: Tony, Joe, and Vinny play in the same group. Tony doesn’t make a birdie and shoots one over, Joe ends the round at three over, and Vinny lags behind at seven over.
Even though Tony might have been worse than the field average and ended his round over par, he still won the three-ball because he outperformed Joe and Vinny.
ROUND 2 3-BALLS
J.J. Spaun +100 > Nico Echavarria (+170) and Kevin Kisner (+370)
J.J. Spaun shot a round of even par on Thursday and won this 3-ball by six shots.
Spaun hit seven of 14 fairways yesterday and seemingly spent the day stuck in neutral. In Round 1, the American was slightly worse than the field average both off the tee and on approach but slightly better than the field average around the green and putting.
Meanwhile, Echavarria and Kisner were two of the worst drivers in the field on Thursday, and their iron play was well below tour standard too.
I considered Echavarria at his price. However, after looking at his profile on RickRunGood.com, I can see that bentgrass is by far his worst putting surface. In his career, he’s lost almost one stroke per round on bentgrass greens.
Speaking of RickRunGood.com, the site has a tool for 2 and 3-balls, so let’s punch in the three players and see what it spits out.
Tom Kim +145 > Adam Scott (+165) and Daniel Berger (+230)
There was one key stat I had my eye on all week after walking the property: distance from edge from fairway.
There isn’t much room out here for big misses with the way the course is setup, and it’s a large reason why I like Tom Kim in this 3-ball.
Kim ranks 12th on the PGA Tour this year in distance from edge from fairway, Berger is 18th, and Scott is 111th, which automatically takes him out of any equation for me.
Looking at the game of Kim and Berger, it’s a point of comfort for me to side with Kim and it’s largely due to Berger’s putter.
The American has looked fine in his return to golf after missing over a full year due to a back injury, but he hasn’t found much success on the greens.
In the 27 measured rounds he’s played in 2024, Berger has been better than field average in putting just nine times. Meanwhile Kim has been better than field average in 22 of his 49 measured rounds this year.
On Thursday Scott and Kim tied with rounds of even par while Berger wasn’t too far behind at two-over, so I’ll ride with a guy who I think sets up well for this course and could be the guy in the group to make the most putts.
Rory McIlroy -140 > Nick Taylor (+320) and Taylor Pendrith (+280)
Earlier this week, I bet Rory to miss the cut.
Today, I think he’ll have the low round of the day.
McIlroy slept walked his way to a bogey-free round of four-under on Thursday.
After the round, he told the media he was ‘a little groggy' to start the day after having one too many glasses of wine the night before.
With an afternoon tee time today, I expect Rory to be ready to rock from the jump today.
On the other side of this three-ball is two Canadians and I can assure you this isn’t a fade of either of them.
McIlroy didn’t make a birdie on either of the par 5s on Thursday, are you willing to bet that doesn’t happen again today?
I know I’m not.
If I were going to play one of the Canucks in this matchup, it would be Nick Taylor at +320.
The defending champ will need a big round to get inside the cut after a round of two-over and currently sits outside of the top 90.
Big I really believe something in the mid to low 60s could be in store for Rory today.
As a Canadian, let’s hope I’m wrong!
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