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Betting splits and best bet for Game 6 between Leafs and Panthers
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How did this happen so fast?
Just eight periods of hockey ago (nine if you include overtime), the Toronto Maple Leafs led 3-1 in Game 3 with a 2-0 series lead over the Florida Panthers.
In the opening seven periods of the series, the Leafs looked poised to erase all previous playoff demons and finally reach that extra level.
And then the rest of the series happened.
As things shift back to Florida for Game 6, the Panthers hold the edge in wins and momentum.
Florida has outscored the Leafs 12-2 in the nine periods of hockey since going down multiple goals in Game 3, and they are overwhelming favourites to advance.
Maple Leafs v Panthers
| Team | Series Odds before Game 1 | Series Odds after Game 2 | Series Odds after Game 3 | Series Odds after Game 4 | Series Odds after Game 5 | To win in Seven Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | -176 | +176 | +106 | -200 | -720 | +370 |
| Toronto | +146 | -210 | -128 | +164 | +500 | +480 |
Before we get to a best bet from Domenic Padula, as he looks to improve to 6-0 on the series, let’s look at where the public has their money with some splits.
Leafs vs. Panthers Game 6 Betting Splits
According to FanDuel, the Leafs have received over 65 per cent of the bets on the moneyline for Game 6.
Toronto’s +198 price to win Game 6 is their longest odds to win a postseason game since they lost to the Washington Capitals in the first round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Leafs vs. Panthers Game 6 Betting Splits
| Team | Moneyline | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| Florida | 35 per cent | 21 per cent (-1.5) |
| Toronto | 65 per cent | 79 per cent (+1.5) |
The public is also backing the Leafs on the puck line as more than 75 per cent of the bets on FanDuel on the spread are on Toronto +1.5 at -142 odds.
As for the total, around 90 per cent of the money for Game 6 has come on the over at 5.5 goals.
In 11 playoff games this year, the Leafs have had seven games go over the total, while the Panthers have had eight of their 10 postseason games go over this number.
Dom’s Game 6 Best Bet
There's a ton of pressure to close this one out tonight.
By that, I'm referring to us going 6-0 with the best bets for the series in this column.
I locked in Lundell 1+ point again in Morning Coffee.
I'll go with a builder SGP that has a 100 per cent success rate in this series for this column.
Auston Matthews hasn't scored yet, but he has registered 3+ shots on goal in all five games.
Sam Reinhart and William Nylander have both registered 2+ shots on goal in every game.
The shot attempts and game situation align for all three players to hit those marks again tonight.
I'll play it safe and go with Matthews, Nylander, and Reinhart to all register 2+ shots on goal at -127 odds.
Hopefully, that trio can make it 6-for-6 in the series tonight, and so can we.
Let's go!