3rd and 1: Could the Stamps be the best in the West?

Nowhere to hide entering an abbreviated Week 6. The year’s first three game slate gave us an extra day to perspire over our picks.  It also eliminates any room for guess-estimation errors.  In any given week, there’s usually one game that doesn’t appear in the crystal ball as clearly as the others.  Luckily, that isn’t the case this week.  The days are long, the weather is warm, confidence is soaring entering peak summer in the CFL.

Calgary Stampeders at Saskatchewan Roughriders

Speaking of riding high, the Stamps are coming off a decisive win in the first ever Stampede bowl beating the Bombers 37-16.  It wasn’t close.  Kudos to Calgary for making all the experts second guess themselves.  The Stamps were tied with the Elks for the longest odds to win the Grey Cup entering this season.  A win tonight would make them West Division leaders.  Vernon Adams is still the seventh choice to win MOP at 15-to-1 despite having the second most passing yards per game this season while leading his new team to a 3-and-1 record.  It shouldn’t have been all that unexpected in hindsight.  This week, they’re the only undefeated team in the league, Trevor Harris is back, and they’ll be an enthusiastic home crowd in Saskatchewan tonight.  The Riders are for real, but so are the 5.5 points they’ll have to cover.  As much credit as Adams deserves on offence and in the room, this Calgary defence is allowing the fewest points per game thus far thanks to its bend but don’t break mentality.  This unit has only given up 5 touchdowns to opposing offences, which is half as many as the next fewest total to date.

The Pick: STAMPEDERS +5.5

Ottawa Redblacks at Hamilton Tiger-Cats

Dru Brown started slowly in his return to the lineup last week. The Redblacks managed just three points in their first five possessions.  The Elks scored touchdowns on their first two drives and that difference proved too much for Ottawa to overcome late in the game.  The Redblacks fell to 1-and-4.  If they’re searching for a silver lining entering Saturday’s game, their one win came on the road.  That means they’re just one road win away from equaling last year’s total.  It may have taken until late in the second quarter to see what the Redblacks offence can do when heathy, but Dru Brown still finished with 316 yards and two touchdowns.  He had five receivers with at leas 45 receiving yards.  He didn’t throw an interception.  It’s hard to ignore to the 52 points put up by the Ti-Cats last week, especially considering the Redblacks allowed 39 to the Elks.  But as I’ve said before, I have faith in what the Redblacks can do on offence.  Can they slow down Kenny Lawler?  Nobody has thus far, which is why they’ll need to score early and often to keep it close.  If the defence can come up with a few stops, the points will be in play.  And the fear of falling to 1-5 should help sharpen the axe.

The Pick: REDBLACKS +4.5

BC Lions at Edmonton Elks

The Lions earned an exciting and much needed walk-off win in Montreal last week.  The offence had struggle for most of the game until Nathan Rourke hit Stanley Berryhill with a 43-yard touchdown strike late in the 4^th quarter.  That was against arguably the best defence in the league and Rourke may have been a little rusty in his return from a two-game injury absence.  While the Elks defence is improved from last year, they’re still allowing a league-worst 34.5 points per game.  It had been three years since the Edmonton won a game before August, until Sunday’s win. That’s cause for some celebrating I would imagine.

The Pick: LIONS -3

Player Prop: Justin Rankin Over 63.5 Rushing Yards

My biggest concern for the Lions this week is their run defence.  It’s allowing a CFL worst 136.4 rush yards a game.  The Elks Justin Rankin is coming off a season high 105-yard performance in Sunday’s win over Ottawa.  He’s averaging 6.2 yards per carry this season, tied for the most among running backs with at least 30 attempts.  What makes my confidence soar (besides the weather) is that whether the Elks are leading like last week, or coming from behind, Rankin figures to be a big part of the offence.