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Morning Coffee: Underdog Oilers aim for upset in Game 2 of Stanley Cup Final
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The Boston Celtics were a heavy favourite to beat the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals at -220 at FanDuel.
Unfortunately for basketball fans, it appears they should have been an even bigger favourite.
Boston extended its franchise-record postseason win streak to nine in a row with a 105-98 win over Dallas in Game 2 last night.
The Celtics are just the 12th team in NBA history to win at least nine straight games in a single postseason.
Boston is now -1000 to win the title at FanDuel.
That number represents a 90.9 per cent implied probability.
Teams that take a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals have combined for a 31-5 series record all-time.
The Celtics are 43-1 when leading 2-0 in a best-of-seven playoff series.
After a long wait for the NBA Finals, there isn’t much from the first two games to get excited about unless you have a bet on Boston to win the championship.
Turning the page this morning, the focus shifts back to the Stanley Cup Final with Game 2 tonight in Florida.
Will we see a little more parity on the ice?
I’m a proud Canadian and I’d genuinely love to see a Canadian-based team win the Stanley Cup.
However, I recommended a play on the Florida Panthers to win the Stanley Cup in last Friday’s column.
There’s nothing that I saw in Game 1 that would convince me to hedge that bet at this point.
It’s not personal, Oilers Nation.
It’s strictly business.
The Panthers are -250 to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel.
If you have faith in Connor McDavid and company rallying, you can find Edmonton at +202 to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel this morning.
In addition to a future play on Florida pending, the FanDuel Best Bets went 2-0 in this column last week.
Hopefully, we can lock in another winner with a FanDuel Best Bet for Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final.
This is the Morning Coffee for Monday, June 10th, 2024.
Underdog Oilers Aim For Upset In Game 2 Of The Stanley Cup Final
The Panthers entered the Stanley Cup Final as the favourite to win it all at -126 at FanDuel.
After a convincing 3-0 victory in Game 1, Florida’s odds to win it all shifted from -126 to -250.
Teams that win Game 1 of a Stanley Cup Final have gone on to win the series 76 per cent of the time.
That’s a big reason why the Oilers’ odds to win it all ballooned from +105 to +202 at FanDuel after one loss.
However, a strong performance from the Panthers in the series opener wasn’t enough to convince the majority of FanDuel bettors to back Florida again in Game 2.
Per the FanDuel traders, 53 per cent of the bets are on Edmonton to win Game 2.
That support has led to the Oilers’ odds to win Game 2 getting cut from +126 to +118 at FanDuel.
That means anybody who likes the Panthers to win Game 2 can get them now at -142 after they opened at -152.
I’m very interested to see Edmonton’s response tonight.
Teams that go up 2-0 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final series are 49-5 all-time.
The Oilers outshot Florida 32-18 in Game 1.
However, the Panthers took advantage of their opportunities with timely goals, while the Oilers couldn’t solve Sergei Bobrovsky.
Bobrovsky turned aside all 32 shots he faced for his second shutout this postseason.
The shutout victory was enough for Bobrovsky to emerge as the favourite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy at FanDuel, with his odds cut from +400 to +210.
Bobrovsky has now allowed two goals or fewer in 11 of his last 12 starts.
With Bobrovsky performing at an elite level, the margin for error is that much slimmer for the Oilers on the road.
As somebody who believes they have a pretty good feel for this match-up, I’ve already locked in several wagers at FanDuel for Game 2.
I’ve circled one of them as my FanDuel Best Bet.
I’ll lock in a Same Game Parlay with Connor McDavid to register 3+ shots on goal, Vladimir Tarasenko to record 1+ shots on goal, and the Panthers +2.5 on the alt puck line at -150 odds.
McDavid played 25 minutes and 19 seconds in Game 1.
That’s the most of any forward on either team.
McDavid’s six shots on goal in Game 1 were tied for his second-most in a single postseason game.
It also tied his highest shots on goal total without an actual goal.
It wasn’t for a lack of trying.
The Oilers outshot and out chanced the Panthers when McDavid was on the ice.
Edmonton has lost each of its past eight games when McDavid and Leon Draisaitl do not record a point.
I’m willing to bet that the best hockey player in the world gets a ton of ice time and creates a ton of chances again with the Oilers staring down a 2-0 series deficit tonight.
McDavid recorded six shots on goal on eight attempts in Game 1.
He’s registered at least five shots on goal in four of his previous five games.
I don’t believe the Oilers can beat the Panthers by three or more goals in Florida.
So, the Panthers +2.5 on the alt puck line seems like an ideal option to pair with McDavid 3+ shots on goal.
If you don’t love the juice, you might consider adding Vladimir Tarasenko to record 1+ shot on goal to get this SGP down to even-money.
Tarasenko had two shots on goal on a team-high six shot attempts as the trigger man on a third line that seemed to have plenty of opportunities to score in Game 1.
However, I’m comfortable sticking with McDavid and the Panthers for tonight’s game.
Have a great day, everyone!