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FanDuel NFL Best Bets: TSN staff picks for Week 12

Travis Etienne Jacksonville Jaguars Travis Etienne - The Canadian Press

Each week, members from our betting team will share their best bets from the slate of games in hopes of building the ultimate 8-leg parlay on FanDuel.

You can ride the parlay or play the picks on their own, but we made sure to leave an empty space in the box for you to join in and add your biggest lock for the week! Just save the image below and add your own pick to the middle square if you want in on the parlay.

Here’s what we’re rolling with for Week 12 of the NFL season.

TSN Best Bets Week 12

Eric Cohen - Minnesota Vikings -3.0 (-115) 

Seeing the Minnesota Vikings as only a three-point home favourite tells you that they are equal to the Chicago Bears, as home field advantage generally equates to three points. What am I missing here?

The Vikings are 6-5 and have been very competitive since their 0-3 start. The Bears are 3-8 and even though they got Justin Fields back – and he looked very good against the Lions in Detroit last week – they are still a very flawed football team.

This line is very disrespectful to the Vikings and Minnesota has proven they can win close games even without Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson. Give me Minnesota at home at a very short price. 

Chris Brieda - Travis Etienne over 67.5 rushing yards (-114)

I’d like to credit Christian Marin for pointing out Travis Etienne’s favourable matchup with the Houston Texans the last time the Jacksonville Jaguars and Texans squared off this season.

In his three meetings with Houston, Etienne has gone over 67.5 rushing yards every time:

Week 5 last year — 10 carries, 71 yds
Week 17 last year — 9 carries, 108 yds, TD
Week 3 this year — 19 carries, 88 yds

He’s also averaging 7.0 yards per carry in his career against the Texans, meaning he’ll likely only need around nine to 10 touches to sniff his total. Thankfully for us, he’s averaging 17.4 carries per game this season.

Even coming off back-to-back games going under his rushing total, I still really like this spot for the Jaguars running back. That’s probably why we’re getting a lower number than usual, and I’m jumping on it against a team he loves to play against.

Evan Render - Tennessee Titans -3.5 (-110)

This is more of a fade to the worst team in football, a.k.a. the Carolina Panthers.

It’s also noteworthy, to me at least, that the Tennessee Titans are undefeated at Nissan Stadium (3-0) this season, with wins over the Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons and the Los Angeles Chargers.

I think this is a good spot just north of a field goal for the Titans offence to bounce back after some miserable losses.

The Panthers do nothing well, and Bryce Young so far is starting to reek of a Ryan Leaf-like bust.

Give me the Titans -3.5 to blow the doors off Carolina as my best bet.

Christian Marin - Alvin Kamara over 50.5 rushing yards (-114)

The New Orleans Saints pay a visit to the Atlanta Falcons this weekend and nothing screams high-scoring affair like a Saints and Falcons matchup, especially when the NFC South is still very much up for grabs.

Alvin Kamara was held to his two lowest rushing totals of the season over the past two weeks and only had nine rushing attempts in each game, but aside from those two games he has gone over this total in each of the other five games he has played this season.

On top of that, he has gone over this number in three of his past five games against Atlanta, but finished with exactly 50 rushing yards in of the games he didn’t go over the total.

Atlanta’s run defence ranks 14th in the NFL in rushing yards against per game, averaging 108 rushing yards against per game, but over the last three weeks they’ve ranked 27th while giving up an average of 139 yards on the ground per game.

Kamara 25+ receiving yards is also a play worth checking out as he has hit that number in five straight games and in six of seven games this season.

Dom Padula - Zay Flowers 4+ receptions & Gus Edwards 25+ rushing yards (-150)

Rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers has averaged a team-high 4.8 receptions on a team-high 6.5 targets for the Baltimore Ravens this season. Tight end Mark Andrews has earned the second-most receptions (4.5) on the second-most targets (6.1), but he will miss the remainder of the regular season due to an ankle injury.

With Andrews out of the lineup, it’s certainly possible that the rookie Flowers sees an uptick in targets. All we need is for Flowers to maintain his season averages against a Los Angeles Chargers defence that ranks among the worst in the NFL against the pass.

Meanwhile, Gus Edwards has recorded 24 or more rushing yards in every single game this season. The only time he failed to hit 25 rushing yards was against a dominant Cleveland Browns defence a couple of weeks ago, when he averaged 2.2 yards on 11 carries for exactly 24 yards.

Give me Flowers 4+ receptions mixed with Edwards 25+ rushing yards this week.

Connor Ford: Keaton Mitchell over 6.5 receiving yards (-114)

The Los Angeles Chargers are set to host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football on TSN and I love the value we’re getting on Keaton Mitchell this week.

While he’s still a low-volume player in Baltimore’s offence, Mitchell has gone over this line in three of his last four games. We all know that the Chargers’ defence has struggled mightily – they’ve allowed the third-most receptions and yards to running backs this season. 

Mitchell played a season-high 36 per cent of the snaps in Week 11, so it’s clear that the Ravens’ coaching staff wants to get him more involved. He ran 10 routes on 22 snaps against the Cincinnati Bengals – an encouraging sign for his usage in the passing game. Tight end Mark Andrews is also out for the remainder of the season, so there should be more targets available in this offence. 

With the line set at 6.5, we probably only need one catch for Mitchell to go over. I’ll take a shot on the emerging rookie in a favourable matchup.

Drew Morrison - DJ Moore over 59.5 receiving yards (-114)

To ‘parlay’ is to turn an initial stake or investment into a greater amount.  But more often than not, it means the opposite – to squander a series of good bets by attaching it to one bad one.  And that’s exactly what I did on American Thanksgiving Thursday.  The Detroit Lions’ loss to the Green Bay Packers spoiled a series of shrewd selections from yours truly.

The bright side of Black Friday?  The Lions won’t be the reason I lose my best bet this week.

Monday Night in Minnesota features the other two NFC North teams.

The Minnesota Vikings are three-point favourites at home to the Chicago Bears – the same Chicago team that squandered a 12-point 4th quarter lead to the Lions last week.  Justin Fields was impressive in that game, albeit before being stripped in the dying seconds for a safety to seal it.  He was no doubt looking for DJ Moore. 

Fields missed four games with a thumb injury that he suffered the first time he played the Vikings. While he was out, Moore averaged about five catches and 50 yards a game. Not bad. But not quite the 180 yards and two touchdowns that he averaged in the two games prior to Fields being injured.  Moore also had a modest 96 yards and a touchdown in Detroit. 

Not only do the Vikings love to blitz, which would give Moore some one on one matchups outside, but they don’t have anybody in their secondary who can match up with the Bears’ No. 1 wideout.
DJ? Spin me 60 yards.

The odds on this 8-leg parlay are +6605* and $10 would pay $660.50 on FanDuel Canada.

*Odds subject to change.