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FanDuel NFL Futures: Which team will go worst to first?
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The 2024 NFL season kicks off Thursday, on TSN, with the Baltimore Ravens taking on Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
As we approach the start of another season, members of our TSN Betting team have locked in some of their favourite plays for the season.
Earlier this week, Domenic Padula and I gave you a few teams to consider to be the last undefeated team in the league. Today, I tapped Chris Brieda's services for something a little different.
Chris and I have found two teams that we like to win their division this year after finishing dead last in that division in the 2023 season.
Why? Because that’s what history suggests it will happen.
At least one team has gone from worst to first, winning its division the season after finishing last place the previous year, in 19 of the past 21 seasons.
C.J. Stroud and first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans turned the Houston Texans franchise around in 2023, winning the division after a 3-13-1 2022.
Turnover and parity are expected in the NFL to the point that expecting the unexpected has simply become expected.
Here is a list of every team to go from worst to first in the NFL since 2016.
2023: Houston Texans
2022: Jacksonville
2021: Bengals
2020: Commanders
2019: N/A
2018 Chicago Bears, Houston Texans
2017 Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles,
2016 Dallas Cowboys
And here are the eight teams looking to add their squad to the list this year
Cincinnati Bengals +165
Chicago Bears +340
Los Angeles Chargers +390
Tennessee Titans +950
Washington Commanders +1100
Carolina Panthers +1100
Arizona Cardinals +1300
New England Patriots +2600
Now, here are the two teams Chris and I have identified.
Chris Brieda: Cincinnati Bengals +165 to win AFC North
It shouldn’t be a surprise to see the Bengals on this list. After all, Cincinnati has the shortest odds to win their division of all eight teams who finished last in 2023. A season ago, poor play in September combined with a pile of injuries sank a promising campaign for Cincy. One of those injuries included star quarterback Joe Burrow. Despite consistent adversity, they somehow managed to finish 9-8 and narrowly missed the postseason. With Joey B healthy and motivated, I anticipate the Bengals to return to Super Bowl contender form and put the league back on notice. They’ll have a great chance to take advantage of an opportunistic fourth-place schedule and win the hyper-competitive AFC North.
Luke Bellus: Arizona Cardinals +1300
Once you remove the Bengals, the list of teams to go worst to first this year gets very thin. But at this time last year we never would’ve guessed the Texans would turn it around the way they did, so I’m reaching lower on the odds for a dart. That's why I’ve landed on the 13-1 Cardinals in this market, with Kyler Murray being the main reason. Arizona opened 2023 1-8 as their star quarterback worked his way back from a torn ACL the year prior. Without Murray, they were 28th in points per drive, 27th in yards per drive, and 26th in plays per drive. Murray returned for Week 10, going just 3-5 to close to the year, but the offence showed huge signs of life. With Murray at quarterback, Arizona was ninth in points per drive, fifth in yards per drive, and third in plays per drive. That’s the good. Here is the bad. Arizona enters year three of the Jonathan Gannon experience in desperate search of answers on defence. Since Gannon arrived the team has ranked 31st in 2022 and 32nd last year in points against. Not ideal, considering Gannon is supposed to be a defence-first guy. But that’s where this 13-1 longshot takes shape. What if Gannon figures it out? Arizona has the offence to stay in games, they just need a defence to not also take them right out of those same games. If Arizona is going to win the NFC West it’ll likely be due to San Francisco’s schedule catching up to them. The 49ers will play three different road games this year during a short week, and according to Warren Sharp of SharpFootballAnalysis.com, that’s the most in the NFL. They’ll also be navigating a Super Bowl loss hangover, something they didn’t do very well four years ago when San Fran went 6-10 and missed the playoffs after losing in a Super Bowl. As for the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams, I’m happy to take a shot on Arizona in the hopes of them besting a rookie head coach this year in Seattle while the Rams continue to age out of their window.