Intelligent Hockey: Habs, Blue Jackets, Stars on track to snap cold spells

The Montreal Canadiens, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Dallas Stars are all experiencing rough patches, though to varying degrees. The Canadiens and Blue Jackets will almost certainly miss the playoffs, but they aren’t as bad as their recent records suggest. The Stars have lost two of their last three, but they won Thursday’s contest by three goals. I envision a fiery effort from these three teams on Saturday as they try to counter their recent cold spells.

Columbus Blue Jackets at Detroit Red Wings
Saturday, November 11 – 1 PM ET

The vibes aren’t great in Columbus these days. Superstar left wing Johnny Gaudreau was recently benched and mostly has looked like a diminished version of the “Johnny Hockey” that electrified audiences when he was a Calgary Flames forward. Columbus Sniper Patrik Laine got injured on a dirty hit by Calgary defenceman Rasmus Andersson. Kent Johnson, former top-five pick in the 2021 NHL Draft, was sent down to the AHL. With 13 games played, Columbus has two losing streaks of three or more. And we’re talking about in-season problems, which don’t factor in the Mike Babcock saga. So, yeah, it’s been a tough few months for Columbus.

But the Blue Jackets offer you enough glimpses of potential that, like a mediocre show stuffed with cliffhangers, you can’t turn away. This week has been a doozy. On Monday night, the Blue Jackets allowed three goals before the first TV timeout, looking completely rudderless. They couldn’t exit the zone or box out. Transition defence was only theoretical. They were a hot mess, trying to tape-to-tape pass it out of their own zone while the Panthers’ defencemen chewed up the Columbus forwards along the wall.

Then, slowly, the Blue Jackets started using indirect methods to get the puck out of their zone. They began to forecheck and back-check. And miraculously, they tied the game before eventually losing in overtime.

Thursday night against the Dallas Stars saw Columbus race out to a 2-0 lead. The Blue Jackets looked fast on the forecheck and on the counterattack. But the Stars, a better, more well-coached team, began to assert themselves off the rush and on the forecheck, and the Blue Jackets cratered, surrendering five unanswered goals.

I believe that Saturday will be different. The Red Wings are priced as heavy favourites, but I think they are eminently beatable. On Tuesday night against the New York Rangers, Detroit did a really poor job against the Rangers on entries, giving New York infinite amounts of time and space. And once the Rangers arrived in the zone, they spread Detroit out, forcing the Red Wings’ man-on-man defence into difficult contortions, with defencemen chasing their man away from the net to the area above the circles. Voila! Pull pieces away like Jenga and the slot opens up. The tumble of goals was swift.

After such a weak effort against the Rangers, one would have expected a strong response against the Montreal Canadiens, but that didn’t happen. The Canadiens outshot Detroit at 5-on-5. The Red Wings managed the puck poorly, giving Montreal ample opportunity to counterattack.

As much as I feel like Columbus has the personnel to compete, I also feel like Detroit might have been exposed as a one-trick pony. When Detroit started off the season winning five of its first six games, the Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat, and Lucas Raymond duo was en fuego, quadrupling foes in 5-on-5 scoring and holding a notable edge in shot differential and expected goals percentage. In the subsequent eight games, that same line has scored two goals and allowed two and is losing in shot differential and expected goals percentage.

The Red Wings’ power play also got off to a hot start, but it’s been cool of late while the Blue Jackets’ penalty kill has been unassailable of late. The last time Columbus allowed a power-play goal was 10/26, having gone six straight games without conceding a tally on the man advantage!

Having lost three straight, the Blue Jackets have played good portions of games but have allowed poor decision-making with the puck and in positioning to submarine their chances. I think Columbus could win this game outright (in the advanced stats the Red Wings are similarly unimpressive) but the possibility they make a foolish play in overtime or lose in a shootout is always a risk. I’ll happily grab the puck line.

Pick: Blue Jackets Puck line (+1.5) -162 

Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets
Saturday, November 11 – 3 PM ET

By the numbers, it is hard to argue with the Stars’ results. They lead the Central Division, even besting FanDuel’s Stanley Cup favorites, the Colorado Avalanche. Goaltender Jake Oettinger has been awesome, and the 5-on-5 numbers for the Stars in expected goals and high-danger chances are top four in the NHL.

But there are areas of concerns. The power play, last year one of the league’s best, currently ranks among the worst. The Stars have had dreadful starts to games and are the only team in the NHL that hasn’t led a game after the first period. It has also been an uncharacteristically slow start for the Stars’ top line of Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz, and Jason Robertson, which has been unstoppable over the last few seasons. They are outscoring their adversaries by one goal at 5-on-5. In expected goals and high-danger chances, they are hovering around 50 per cent. Last season, Robertson had 46 goals, but this season he has only three goals through 12 games, and his Thursday night tally was an empty netter.

And yet, I like the Stars in this matchup, notwithstanding their blemishes. Ultimately, Dallas is a Cup contender and my pick in this game because of the manifold ways in which it can win. Trailing Columbus 2-0 Thursday, the Stars turned up the dial and exhibited their versatility. On the first Dallas goal, scored by Mason Marchment, Tyler Seguin sat back as the F3 and created the turnover along the wall on the pass to Gaudreau. The Stars would score their next two goals off the rush, and on both strikes they demonstrated how quickly they could turn defence into offence.

The Stars are one of the best in the NHL off the rush, and with their weak-side defenceman always joining the rush out of the zone, they understand how to layer their attack and create problems for their opponent. The fourth goal by Seguin showcased the Stars’ intent to spread teams out while stacking forwards in the slot to prep for tip opportunities.

This is the Stars’ and Jets’ first matchup of the year, and how Winnipeg tries to stymie Dallas will be fascinating. The Jets are very aggressive defending their own blue lines, and that confidence to step up is emboldened by strong back-checking from the Jets forwards. So, the Stars’ rush game might see its best chances by capitalizing off the Jets’ offensive posture on the cycle. Winnipeg loves to activate its defencemen, but if Dallas can force turnovers and catch the Jets beneath the puck, that Dallas attack coming in waves will pose problems.

One of the biggest surprises this year for Winnipeg has been the play of its third line, with Adam Lowry, Mason Appleton, and Nino Niederreiter soaking up tough minutes and excelling. The Stars have mobile defencemen and heavy bodies to counter their brass-knuckle, north-south game, but if the Jets kill off the Stars’ offensive zone faceoff plays and the Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele line runs wild, the Stars will lose.

I think Dallas coach Peter DeBoer finally sees his team play a strong game in all three periods. The Stars have posted a strong record up to this point, but the poor starts and recent underwhelming play from their first line seem unlikely to continue. The Stars have won with their depth and versatility. I think Saturday will see Dallas’s big boys show up and Oettinger win the day.

Pick: Stars Moneyline -118 

Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens
Saturday, November 11 – 7 PM ET

Legendary NFL coach Bill Parcells famously quipped, “You are what your record says you are.” But betting does not abide by that logic and, in the NHL, one should look no further than the Canadiens.

Montreal has the same number of points as the Toronto Maple Leafs, and that ranks them in the middle of the league. Montreal has eight more points than the last-place San Jose Sharks, who are tied with Edmonton with five points, although the Oilers have a game in hand. Yet, on FanDuel’s Stanley Cup odds, the Canadiens and Sharks have identical odds at +25000.

Despite posting wins over the Buffalo Sabres, Red Wings, and Jets, and losing in a shootout to the Maple Leafs and Vegas Golden Knights, there is a heavy dose of skepticism around Montreal’s fortunes. 

To me, this seems unfair to the Habs. The Canadiens have gotten strong goaltending from Jake Allen and Cayden Primeau. They have two dynamic playmakers in Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. Their power play is within shouting distance of the top 10. Most of all, the sum has been greater than the parts for this team on some nights, underscored by the Canadiens having a high-danger chances percentage of 52.91. Their opponent, the much-lauded Boston Bruins, have a slightly worse percentage.

Saturday will certainly be a challenge. The Bruins have won 11 of their first 13 games. Boston goaltender Jeremy Swayman, the likely starter for Saturday since Linus Ullmark played on Thursday, hasn’t allowed a goal from outside the home plate area (he has 106 saves from the perimeter). Incredibly, Boston lost future Hall of Famer, No. 1 centre, and six-time Selke Trophy winner Patrice Bergeron, but has been able to hold teams to under two goals a game. Astonishingly, Boston has Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle as its top two centres and has the best record in the NHL. Go figure.

All the same, I like the Canadiens to keep this game close. Heck, I think they could even win. Montreal wants to play a puck control/ territorial-advantage game. And once the Habs get in the offensive zone, they should look to get underneath Boston’s coverage or find room in quiet areas against the layers of the Bruins’ zone. The Islanders did this with interchanges and rotations, but Montreal has an opportunity to do this by getting deflections when Boston tries to front the puck.

I also think Montreal could be dangerous off the rush and counterattack. The Canadiens use interference on the rush to open up lanes, and the Islanders had success using the centre lane drive to open up seams. With Suzuki and Caufield split up, it’s possible both lines could be a threat in transition.

Montreal has lost by two or more goals in four of its 13 games. While the Bruins are a formidable opponent, I think the Canadiens play them tough at home, and I’ll take the puck line in the event they could be defeated in an overtime loss.

Pick: Canadiens Puck line (+1.5) -144