Morning Coffee: A closer look at the AFC playoff picture entering Week 10

The New York Jets made history on Monday Night Football.

Unfortunately for anyone who took the points with them at FanDuel, it was for all of the wrong reasons.

The Jets are the only team in the Super Bowl era to have their defence register five or more sacks, hold their opponent to under 200 total yards, not allow a single play of 25 or more yards, and still lose by 20 or more points.

Justin Herbert threw for a career-low 136 yards. But he still secured the largest road victory of his career as the Los Angeles Chargers rolled to a 27-6 win in New York as a three-point favourite at FanDuel.

For perspective, over the last 20 seasons, teams that have gained fewer than 200 yards in a game have won just 13 per cent of the time.

While the Jets had their three-game win streak come to a screeching halt, the Chargers forced their way back into a crowded AFC playoff picture with a crucial win to get back to .500 in the standings.

There are seven playoff spots up for grabs in each conference.

Entering Week 10, 13 AFC teams have four or more wins, setting the stage for what should be a thrilling playoff race over the second half of the season.

This is the Morning Coffee for Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2023.

A look at the AFC playoff picture entering Week 10

If the NFL regular season ended today, the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Miami Dolphins would clinch playoff spots as the division winners in the AFC.

The three AFC wild-card teams would all come from the AFC North division.

The Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals are all 5-3 entering Week 10.

The Buffalo Bills are currently on the outside looking in on a wild-card spot at 5-4.

Then it’s the Chargers, Jets, and Houston Texans at 4-4, followed by the Indianapolis Colts and the Las Vegas Raiders at 4-5.

All 13 teams with four or more wins entering Week 10 have to believe they have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs entering the second half of the season.

That should make an absolutely loaded AFC playoff race that much more fun to watch unfold the rest of the way.

The Chiefs remain the favourite to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel at +490.

As I highlighted last week, I thought there was value playing the Baltimore Ravens at +1300 to win it all. They’re down to +850 to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel this morning.

The Dolphins, Bengals and Bills can all be found between +1200 and +1500 to win it all at FanDuel. The Jaguars are +2000 and the Browns are +2800.

Next up, we get some intriguing AFC showdowns with major implications on the Week 10 slate.

None of them is bigger than the AFC North showdown between Cleveland and Baltimore.

The Ravens opened -4.5 but are up to -6 at FanDuel. Baltimore is 4-1 ATS this season against opponents with a winning record.

Pittsburgh is a three-point favourite at home against the Green Bay Packers.

Despite their 5-3 record, and the fact that they are a favourite this week, the Steelers are still +152 to make the playoffs, which means they are still considered more likely to miss than make the postseason.

Cincinnati is -6.5 at home against the Houston Texans. The Bengals have won and covered in four straight.

While the loaded AFC North is in the spotlight, I can imagine Bills Mafia has to be feeling some level of anxiety heading into their clash with the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football.

Buffalo has dropped three of five to fall to 5-4.

While the Bills are a 7.5-point favourite, they’ve failed to cover the spread in five straight games - the longest-active streak in the NFL and the franchise’s longest streak in more than four decades.

The Broncos entered their bye off back-to-back wins over the Packers and Chiefs.

For as bad as they have looked this season, Josh Allen and company can’t afford to overlook the challenge that a Denver team that just upset Kansas City could present with two weeks to prepare and its season on the line.

After the date with the Broncos, Buffalo will have to deal with a gauntlet of a schedule that includes the Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Chargers, New England Patriots, and the Dolphins to close out the regular season.

All of a sudden, the traders at FanDuel don’t consider the Bills a lock to make the playoffs. Buffalo is currently just -128 to make the playoffs at FanDuel this morning.

Nobody is dismissing or overlooking their immense potential but coming off a rough patch and with a brutal schedule the rest of the way, the outlook for the Bills is a lot different than it was following their 3-1 start.