Morning Coffee: A FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football
Life is a blank canvas. Our perspectives are the brushstrokes that paint its colours.
Allow me a moment to elaborate.
If you bet the Los Angeles Rams +7.5 at FanDuel on Sunday, then Sean McVay’s decision to kick a 38-yard field goal as time expired in a 30-23 loss was an overwhelmingly positive experience.
If you bet the San Francisco 49ers -7.5, you’ll never forget McVay’s inexplicable decision to kick an otherwise meaningless field goal for an all-time outrageous backdoor cover bad beat.
For what it’s worth, it would make sense if McVay was concerned in the moment that season-long point differential will ultimately factor into whether Los Angeles makes the playoffs.
Or maybe not. That’s the other thing about perspective. We often get to choose our outlooks.
Regardless, the Rams are one of eight NFL teams that are 2-0 against the spread this season.
That list includes our beloved Arizona Cardinals, who covered in an outright loss for the second week in a row.
The New York Giants rallied from down 21 points to beat the Cardinals 31-28 to match the largest comeback in franchise history.
That comeback victory was a massive swing in survivor pools and a huge break for all of us who bet Arizona to be the last remaining winless team at +460 at FanDuel.
Meanwhile, fantasy football league managers continued to ride the wave of early season surprises.
Reigning Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson ranks fourth in fantasy points in standard ESPN PPR leagues through the first two weeks of the season.
That’s right behind Puka Nacua and the Cowboys D/ST. I guess it would be difficult to choose not to be surprised by that.
This is the Morning Coffee for Monday, Sept. 18, 2023.
NFC East teams sweep Week 2 games
The Giants had lost 150 straight games when trailing by at least 21 points.
After getting outscored a combined 60-0 through the first six quarters of their season, it would have been easy for the G-Men to throw in the towel.
Instead, Daniel Jones and company exploded for 31 points in the second half to beat Arizona and match the largest comeback win in franchise history.
The good news for Giants’ fans and futures bettors is that they managed to salvage a win to improve to 1-1.
The bad news is that star running back Saquon Barkley had to be helped off the field after suffering an ankle injury in the fourth quarter, which won’t help New York on a short week in which they visit the San Francisco 49ers.
The Giants are currently a 10-point underdog at San Francisco on Thursday Night Football.
The Giants weren’t the only NFC East team that pulled off a double-digit win on Sunday.
The Washington Commanders rallied from down 18 points to beat the Denver Broncos 35-33 to improve to 2-0 for the first time since 2011.
Sean Payton was 72-0 all-time in the regular season and playoffs when leading by 18+ points. He clearly wasn’t happy with how the game ended.
Following an 0-2 start, the Broncos are +420 to make the playoffs at FanDuel this morning.
Next up, they travel to Florida to face the 2-0 Miami Dolphins in Week 3.
Tua Tagovailoa threw for 249 yards and a touchdown to lead Miami to a 24-17 win over the New England Patriots.
Tua is the favourite to win NFL MVP at +500, Mike McDaniel is the favourite to win Coach of the Year at +850, and the Dolphins are the favourite to win the AFC East at +105.
Elsewhere, the Dallas Cowboys beat the Jets 30-10 to complete the two-game sweep of the teams from New York.
Dallas outscored the Jets and Giants by 60 points – the second-highest point differential through two games in franchise history.
The Cowboys are +850 to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel.
In terms of the biggest disappointment, it would be hard to make a case for any team other than the Cincinnati Bengals, which fell to 0-2 with a 27-24 loss to the Baltimore Ravens.
Joe Burrow is 1-7 straight up as a starter in the first two games of a season in his career.
Next up, the Bengals will host the Rams in Week 3. Cincinnati is currently a 6.5-point favourite at FanDuel. This seems important.
Finally, after an overall lack of scoring in Week 1, it was a much different story in Week 2.
Last week, 12 of the 16 games stayed under the total. This week, 12 of the first 14 games have gone over the total.
There isn’t a single week on record in which 13-plus games have gone over the total.
We’ll see if that changes tonight with two games on deck.
I’m 3-0 with my FanDuel Best Bets and 11-4 overall with all plays that I’ve posted for Week 2 in the NFL.
I’ll try to keep it going with another FanDuel Best Bet winner for Monday Night Football.
A FanDuel Best Bet to consider for Monday Night Football
The New Orleans Saints went 1-5 against the spread in division games last season. That was with Andy Dalton at quarterback.
The Saints have since handed the keys over to Derek Carr, who went 23-of-33 for 305 yards with one touchdown and one interception in a Week 1 win over the Tennessee Titans.
As far as I’m concerned, Carr is a significant upgrade over Dalton.
He also has a talented cast of weapons available to him in Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson and running back Jamaal Williams.
The New Orleans defence picked off Ryan Tannehill three times last week.
They held Derrick Henry to 4.2 yards per carry and didn’t give up a single touchdown in a 16-15 win.
This week, the Saints get to face a rookie quarterback in Bryce Young, who went 20-of-38 for 146 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in last week’s 24-10 loss to the Atlanta Falcons.
Carolina lost that game by 18 points. Now they face a better team in New Orleans. Still, they are just a three-point underdog at FanDuel.
While I don’t love the idea of betting a road favourite in a prime-time division game, I can’t pass on the opportunity to get what I consider to be the much better team at a decent price based on circumstance.
Young is still just 22-years-old, in a new offence, with limited pieces around him, on the biggest stage, against a very good defence.
Perhaps he proves me wrong and rises to the occasion to lead the Panthers to a win.
Or maybe, Young struggles and Carr takes advantage to lead New Orleans to a 2-0 start.
I don’t love the juice, but I’ll take the Saints at -166 on the money line as my FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football.