Morning Coffee: A FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football
The Buffalo Bills are -134 to make the playoffs at FanDuel.
To put that number in perspective, -134 represents a 57.3 per cent implied probability they make the postseason.
Essentially, the traders at FanDuel have adjusted Buffalo’s updated odds to make the postseason to slightly better than a coin toss.
As it stands this morning, the Bills are currently on the outside looking in on the loaded AFC playoff picture.
The Bills are currently tied for seventh in the AFC standings with a 5-4 record.
How important is it for Buffalo to secure a win tonight? Since 1990, teams that started 5-5 went on to make the playoffs just 30.5 per cent of the time.
Exactly 154 teams started 5-5 over that span. Only one of them went on to win the Super Bowl.
On the flip side, teams that started 6-4 over that same span went on to make the playoffs 59.1 per cent of the time – an 18.6 per cent improvement over the teams that started 5-5.
Since their 3-1 start, the Bills have been a major disappointment, going 2-3 straight up and 0-5 against the spread over that span.
Tonight, Josh Allen and company will get another opportunity to turn the page and get their season back on the right track. Will they capitalize on the opportunity?
This is the Morning Coffee for Monday, Nov. 13, 2023.
A FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football
The Bills opened as an 8.5-point favourite for their clash with the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football.
That number has since dropped to Buffalo -7 at FanDuel. Based on their recent results, that shouldn’t be a surprise.
The Bills are 0-5 against the spread dating back to Week 8 – the longest active ATS losing streak in the NFL and the team’s longest ATS losing streak since the 1970’s.
Meanwhile, the Broncos just upset the Kansas City Chiefs for their second straight win and cover.
They’ve also had an extra week to prepare for tonight’s game thanks to a bye.
Ultimately, getting the outright win will be all that matters for Bills Mafia tonight.
While I don’t want to lay the points with Buffalo, I do think that Allen and company ultimately find a way to win this game.
The Bills are 11-2 straight up at home over the last two seasons. They’re 5-1 straight up coming off a loss over that span.
While Allen will continue to lean heavily on Stefon Diggs, I’m targeting the playmaker that has emerged as the second option in the passing game for tonight’s best bet.
Rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid has registered five or more receptions in three straight games.
Kincaid has averaged 7.7 receptions for 73.7 receiving yards in those three games.
With Dawson Knox out, I think Allen will continue to lean on Kincaid, who has an over/under set at 53.5 receiving yards at FanDuel.
Rather than playing that number, I’m going to take a Same Game Parlay with the Bills money line and Kincaid to register 40 or more receiving yards at -120 as my FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football.
Hopefully, we can finish the week on a high note and improve to 7-2 with the best bets in the month of November.
Bombers open as obvious Grey Cup favourite
The Montreal Alouettes could be found as high as +1500 to win the Grey Cup exactly one week ago at this time.
In fact, they were +440 just to upset the Toronto Argonauts in the Eastern Final.
After a stunning win in Toronto, the Alouettes are down to +270 to win the Grey Cup at FanDuel. That’s a significant adjustment from last week, but Montreal is still a heavy underdog to win it all.
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers, which have been a top-two choice to win it all at FanDuel for the entire season, opened as a 6.5-point favourite to win the Grey Cup.
That number was quickly bet to Winnipeg -7.5, which is where it stands right now.
I’m very interested to see how bettors react to the Alouettes’ stunning upset win over Toronto this week.
Will bettors take a flyer on Montreal at long odds? Or will they jump on the Bombers to win and cover?
Oilers are still a top-10 choice to win Stanley Cup
The Edmonton Oilers entered the season as a top-three choice to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel.
Nobody was surprised when the Oilers fired head coach Jay Woodcroft following a 3-9-1 start. However, some might be surprised to learn that Edmonton is still among the top eight choices to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel this morning.
Despite their awful start, the Oilers are still +1300 to win the Stanley Cup – the same number as the New York Rangers.
Perhaps the move from Woodcroft to Kris Knoblauch behind the bench will ignite the fire Edmonton lacked during its failure to launch at the start of the season.
Or, perhaps there are tough days ahead for an Oilers side that has unquestionably been one of the biggest disappointments in the NHL early on.
The Heisman Trophy carousel continues
Oregon quarterback Bo Nix could be found at +2000 to win the Heisman Trophy at FanDuel in late September. Now, he’s the favourite to win that award at +110.
Nix had his first career game with 400 or more passing yards and four touchdown passes in Oregon’s 36-27 win over USC.
While Nix and Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. are the top two choices to win the Heisman, the biggest story might very well be the emergence of LSU QB Jayden Daniels in that market.
Daniels wasn’t even among the top 10 choices to win the Heisman entering Week 11.
However, Daniels became the first player in FBS history to register 350 or more passing yards and 200 or more rushing yards in the same game as LSU rolled to a 52-35 win over Florida.
As a result, Daniels’ odds to win the Heisman were cut from +1800 to +480 as the third choice to win that award.
Nix is the betting favourite to win the Heisman entering Week 12.
However, if we have learned anything from this market so far this season, it’s the fact that the Heisman Trophy favourite distinction is hard to keep.