Morning Coffee: A FanDuel Best Bet for Monday’s Super Bowl rematch
The stage is set for a potentially epic finish to Week 11 of the NFL regular season.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles will clash in a Super Bowl rematch on Monday Night Football.
Back in February, the Chiefs beat the Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl 57. It was the third-highest scoring Super Bowl in NFL history.
Fast-forward nine months and Kansas City and Philadelphia are the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences as they get set to meet in prime time.
Kansas City and Philadelphia are the first and third choices to win this year’s Super Bowl, respectively.
The Chiefs are a 2.5-point favourite for tonight’s game.
Meanwhile, the total has come all the way down from 50.5 on the lookahead line all the way to 45.5, following the dominant trend towards the under that we have seen in prime-time games.
That trend has been particularly lopsided on Monday Night Football.
Will the Eagles earn a measure of redemption with a win in Kansas City tonight? Or will the Chiefs double down and maintain their status as the Super Bowl favourite at FanDuel?
This is the Morning Coffee for Monday, Nov. 20, 2023.
A FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football
One of the notable betting angles of the NFL season so far has been the trend towards the under in prime-time games.
The under has hit at a 78.7 per cent rate in prime-time games this season, going 26-7 overall. In terms of Monday Night Football specifically, the under is 11-1 – an astounding 91.7 per cent hit rate.
Will that trend towards the under continue tonight?
The total for tonight’s game was 50.5 on the lookahead line at FanDuel.
As of this morning, the current total sits at 45.5.
The Chiefs have had five straight games that have stayed under the total. Meanwhile, the under is 3-2 in Philadelphia’s previous five games.
But these teams have combined to average 51.1 points per game so far this season.
With both teams coming off a bye week, it will be interesting to see whether the extra preparation is a bigger benefit to the offence or the defence.
Andy’s Reid’s teams in particular have benefited from the extra time to prepare in recent years.
The Chiefs are 5-0 straight up in their previous five games coming off a bye week.
Reid’s teams are 21-3 in the regular season off a bye. That’s the most wins (21) and the best win percentage (.875) of any head coach with a minimum of 10 games off a bye.
In terms of a FanDuel Best Bet, I’m going to go with a pair of wide receivers that have delivered for me this season.
A.J. Brown is the third choice to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year at +550.
Brown had seven catches for 66 yards and a touchdown in Philadelphia’s win over the Dallas Cowboys before the bye week. That was the first time in seven games that Brown failed to register 100 or more receiving yards in a game.
The Kansas City defence represents a tough matchup, but with Dallas Goedert sidelined, I believe Hurts will lean heavily on Brown once again tonight.
I’ll take Brown 60 or more receiving yards as the first leg of my Same Game Parlay.
In the final game before Kansas City’s bye week, rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice finished with just two catches for 17 yards and a touchdown on two targets.
That production snapped a string of four straight games with four or more receptions and 33 or more receiving yards.
Rice had posted 72, 60 and 56 receiving yards in three games prior to that disappointing performance against the Dolphins.
I’m going to take Rice 25 or more receiving yards as the second leg of a builder Same Game Parlay for Monday Night Football.
I’ll lock in that SGP as my FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football.
Alouettes complete improbable Grey Cup run
The Montreal Alouettes beat the Winnipeg Blue Bombers 28-24 in the 110th Grey Cup to complete one of the most improbable championship runs in CFL history last night.
The Alouettes, which could be found as high as 15-to-1 to win the Grey Cup at FanDuel as recently as the Monday before the Eastern Final, upset the Toronto Argonauts 38-17 as a +440 money line underdog to advance to the biggest game of the year.
Anyone who bet on them to pull off another upset in the Grey Cup at FanDuel was rewarded last night.
Trailing late the fourth quarter, Cody Fajardo led the game-winning drive as the Alouettes rallied to beat the Bombers as a +330 money line underdog.
Fajardo, who went 21-of-26 for 290 yards and three touchdowns in the victory, was named Grey Cup MVP. Fajardo to win Grey Cup MVP was +300 at FanDuel.
Fajardo connected with Tyson Philpot on six catches for 63 yards, including the game-winning score. Philpot was named the Most Valuable Canadian.
As our very own Aaron Korolnek pointed out heading into this week, recent history has shown that underdogs have thrived on the game’s biggest stage.
Still, it’s remarkable to look back at what the Alouettes accomplished this season as one of the most improbable Grey Cup champions in recent history.