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Morning Coffee: A look at FanDuel’s adjusted Stanley Cup odds

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Sergei Bobrovsky Edmonton Oilers Florida Panthers Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Sergei Bobrovsky - The Canadian Press

Sometimes the longest wait leads to the greatest disappointment.

No one is claiming that the Stanley Cup Final is over. At the same time, it’s going to be difficult for Oilers Nation to revive any kind of optimism heading into Game 4 after last night’s result.

The Florida Panthers became the 29th team in NHL history to take a 3-0 series lead in the Stanley Cup Final when they beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-3 in Game 3.

Teams that go up 3-0 in the Stanley Cup Final own a 27-1 series record all-time.

With the victory, Florida’s odds to win the Stanley Cup shifted from -490 all the way to -2100 at FanDuel. That number represents a 95.5 per cent implied probability.

Considering the historical numbers, that number might seem a little bit low.

Still, this isn’t the first time that the Oilers have been completely written off this season.

At this point, all that matters now is how they respond in Game 4 on home ice on Saturday night.

This is the Morning Coffee for Friday, June 14, 2024.

A look at FanDuel’s adjusted Stanley Cup odds

Edmonton’s odds to win the Stanley Cup ballooned from +365 to +1000 at FanDuel following last night’s loss.

The Oilers are a long shot to win the Stanley Cup.

At the same time, they were considered a much bigger long shot back in late November when they were +1800 to win the Stanley Cup after a disastrous start to the season.

The big difference this time around is that they are dealing with some key injuries, and they are locked in against an opponent that might be the most complete team we’ve seen in a long time.

That was the sentiment when I spoke with some of the FanDuel traders about the Stanley Cup Final earlier this week.

When the Tampa Bay Lightning won back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021, they leaned heavily on elite goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy and got timely goals from their core group of Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, and Victor Hedman.

When the Colorado Avalanche ended Tampa Bay’s run in 2022, they were able to attack their opponents in waves with a top six that featured Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog, Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen and Nazem Kadri – not to mention the fact that defenceman Cale Makar led them in scoring with 29 points in 20 games that postseason.

The Vegas Golden Knights might have been the most complete team in recent memory with key contributors at every level.

Last year, the Golden Knights beat Florida in five games. In the off-season, the Panthers went to work on the necessary upgrades needed to get them over the top.

Florida added Dmitry Kulikov, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Niko Mikkola on the first day of free agency to bolster a defence core that already featured Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling.

The next day, they added the Game 2 hero Evan Rodrigues to solidify a deep forward group.

Fast-forward a few months later, the Panthers acquired Vladimir Tarasenko from the Ottawa Senators at the trade deadline.

Tarasenko and Rodrigues have both scored timely goals to provide the necessary secondary scoring a Stanley Cup champion needs behind the big guns up front with Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe.

With Sergei Bobrovsky performing at an elite level behind a deep forward and defence core, the Panthers are easily the most complete team in the NHL this season.

It’s shown so far in the Stanley Cup Final as Florida has outscored Edmonton by a combined 11-4.

At one point last night, it was 11-1 before a late push by the Oilers.

For hockey fans in Edmonton, the hope is that the Oilers can build off the third period of Game 3 and get on the board with their first win of the series on Saturday night.

Edmonton is currently -122 to win Game 4 at FanDuel. The Panthers are +102 to sweep the series.

As someone who made Florida to win the Stanley Cup a FanDuel Best Bet in this column before Game 1, a Panthers win would push my record to 7-for-7 betting on this series.

With several injury concerns, it will be a little longer before FanDuel has their full offering of props for Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final on-site.

Make sure you give me a follow @Domenic_Padula on X and we can collaborate on a best bet for Game 4.

Redblacks keep underdogs perfect this CFL season

In case you missed it, the Ottawa Redblacks beat the Winnipeg Blue Bombers 23-19 in the Week 2 opener on Thursday Night Football.

The Redblacks were +290 on the moneyline.

With the win, CFL underdogs improved to 5-0 straight up this season.

The Bombers, who entered the season as the favourite to win the Grey Cup at FanDuel, fell to 0-2 after suffering the two biggest upsets of the season so far with losses to Ottawa and the Montreal Alouettes.

Meanwhile, Davis Sanchez and Milt Stegall delivered with their Anytime TD Picks in the CFL on TSN pre-game.

Shout out to both for putting me on Dustin Crum to score at +125 at FanDuel.

Next up, the Alouettes are set to visit the Edmonton Elks on Friday Night Football. Montreal is currently a 4.5-point favourite at FanDuel.

It will be very interesting to see if the Elks can push CFL underdogs to 6-0 this season.