Morning Coffee: Leafs Nation braces as Senators stay alive in Battle of Ontario

Leafs Nation, buckle up and hold on tight.

The Battle of Ontario isn’t over just yet.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are a rollercoaster that has hockey fans sweating before the first drop even hits.

When it comes to the Toronto Maple Leafs, none of us have any clue whether the ride is going to twist, turn, or completely fall off the rails at any given moment.

What we do know is that it’s about to get bumpier.

Leafs Nation could not have been more content taking in the views as they ascended to the precipice of the second round with three wins in a row over the Ottawa Senators.

After back-to-back losses, they’re suddenly gripping the safety bar a little tighter, frozen at the peak, listening to the gear’s creek, hoping the cart doesn’t come unhinged.

The exact same ride that seemed like it would be a blast for Leafs Nation just a moment ago is set for a screaming finale that has hearts pounding ahead of the grand finale.

Whatever happens next, please remember to always keep your sticks and skates inside the ride until it comes to a complete stop.

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday, April 30th.

Leafs Nation braces as Senators stay alive in Battle of Ontario

It’s wild how one lucky bounce or a monster check can change the complexion of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The Montreal Canadiens seemed poised to tie their first round series at 2-2 before a massive hit by Tom Wilson sparked a Washington Capitals comeback win in Game 4.

The Edmonton Oilers were on the ropes in Game 4 before Evan Bouchard scored twice in the third period to set up Leon Draisaitl’s overtime winner to tie their series 2-2.

After another win over the Los Angeles Kings last night, the Oilers return home with a chance to clinch the series on Thursday night.

As per our hockey analyst Frank Corrado, Bouchard’s heroics set the stage for Edmonton to respond with its best performance of these Stanley Cup Playoffs to date.

Then there’s those pesky Senators, which seemed down and out after falling behind 3-0 in the Battle of Ontario.

At the time, Ottawa could be found as high as +1400 to advance at FanDuel.

The Senators responded with back-to-back victories, including as a +138 moneyline underdog last night, to change the complexion of the series entering Game 6.

Ottawa is -118 to force a Game 7 on Thursday night.

The Senators odds to advance have been cut from +1400 to +300 at FanDuel.

In terms of implied win probability, those numbers represent a shift from a 6.7 per cent chance to a 25 per cent chance that Ottawa will win the series.

The Maple Leafs, which are now 1-13 in 14 potential playoff series-clinching games since 2018, are -385 to advance at FanDuel this morning.

The fact that this same core group has repeatedly struggled to put away their opponents when it matters the most won’t ease the tension in Toronto one bit over the next 24 hours.

The Maple Leafs will get another opportunity to end the Battle of Ontario when they visit Ottawa for Game 6 on Thursday night.

The worst-case scenario for Toronto is a rollercoaster that nobody from Leafs Nation wants a ticket to ride.

A FanDuel Best Bet for Wednesday night

Speaking of a rollercoaster, the remarkable run that the Canadiens put together this season seems to be winding down heading into Game 5 tonight in Washington.

The Habs are +1000 to win the series down 3-1.

That number represents just a 9.1 per cent chance.

As for tonight’s game, Montreal has been bet up from +146 to +158 at FanDuel over the past 24 hours.

It will take the biggest upset of the series to date for the Canadiens to keep their season alive tonight.

Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Lightning are also on the ropes this morning down 3-1 to the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers.

Unlike the Habs, Tampa Bay is a small favourite at -118 to stay alive with a win on home ice tonight.

How important is a fast start in that series?

The Panthers are 15-0 when leading after the first period and 21-0 when leading after the second period in the Stanley Cup Playoffs since 2023.

As somebody who bet on Florida to repeat as Eastern Conference champions, I’ll be fine with that series concluding tonight.

Finally, despite back-to-back losses to the St. Louis Blues, the Winnipeg Jets remain the favourite to reach the Stanley Cup Final out of the Western Conference at +500.

The Jets are -178 to bounce back with a win on home ice tonight and -184 to win their series at FanDuel.

St. Louis is +146 to win tonight and +152 to advance.

Apparently, Winnipeg has some help on the way tonight.

In terms of a FanDuel Best Bet for Wednesday night, I’ll lock in Carter Verhaeghe to record 1+ point for Florida at -113 odds.

The trio of Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov, and Sam Reinhart have combined for two goals in four games to begin these Stanley Cup Playoffs.

When these teams met in the postseason a year ago, that same trio combined for 10 goals in five games.

Verhaeghe registered at least one point in all five games in that series, compiling five goals and nine points total.

After getting his first goal and second point of the series in Florida’s Game 4 win, I’ll go back to Verhaeghe to get at least one point in a potential series-clinching game.

Verhaeghe 1+ point is the FanDuel Best Bet.

Have a great day, everyone!