Morning Coffee: Leafs Nation braces for Game 5 showdown versus Panthers

Leafs Nation, the hard part is almost over.

You’ve waited 375 days for this.

Tonight, you’ll find out whether this year’s team has what it takes to contend for hockey’s ultimate prize.

The Toronto Maple Leafs had the longest odds to advance of the eight teams that qualified for the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

After they split the first four games – two wins at home, two losses on the road – Toronto’s odds to win the series are the longest they have been at FanDuel.

So much for a fast start.

The Maple Leads have been underdogs in each of the four games in the series and that trend will continue tonight in Game 5 on home ice.

The Florida Panthers opened -142 to win tonight.

While that number has fluctuated over the past 24 hours, you can find the Panthers to win at the exact same price at FanDuel this morning.

The bad news for Leafs Nation is that back-to-back wins on home ice to start the series haven’t changed the perception that Toronto should be the underdog tonight.

The good news is that the Maple Leafs have already proved they can beat the Panthers in Games 1 and 2.

Now they can make a statement and seize control of a series that has been reduced to a best-of-three with another win in a pivotal Game 5 tonight.

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday May 14th, 2025.

Leafs Nation Braces For Game 5 Showdown Versus Panthers

You could feel the tension in Toronto as hockey fans around the city lined up for their morning coffee.

After a couple of beautiful days weather-wise, it rained all night, and it’s been a gloomy morning around the GTA.

As if the mood in the city wasn’t anxious enough already.

The Panthers travelled to Toronto with the momentum of their best performance of the series in Game 4 to cap off consecutive wins on home ice.

Sergei Bobrovsky stopped all 23 shots he faced in a 2-0 shutout win – the first game he’s allowed fewer than four goals so far in the series.

I’ve already bet Bobrovsky over 22.5 saves at FanDuel.

Win or lose, I’m sure the Cats No. 1 goalie will be busy.

I also jumped on Sam Bennett 1+ point at +102.

Bennett, who is public enemy No. 1 in Toronto after a bump that contributed to Anthony Stolarz missing the previous two games, has recorded a point in four of the first five games of the series.

Bennett leads Florida with five goals and is tied for the team lead with eight points this postseason.

Meanwhile, a familiar Maple Leafs villain has reprised his role in a new uniform, as Brad Marchand has four points through the first four games of the series.

He’s +120 to get on the scoresheet with 1+ point tonight.

I’ll add Marchand 1+ point +120 and his linemate Anton Lundell to record 1+ point at +164 to my NHL card.

While Game 4 was a tight-checking, low-event game, I’m not sure we can expect the same tonight.

The Maple Leafs didn’t help their chances one bit with four consecutive penalties in the first period of Game 4, allowing Florida to control the tempo and play a much more disciplined, defensive game after taking a 1-0 lead.

Considering each of the first three games of the series soared over the total at FanDuel, with Toronto scoring four goals or more in all three games, I’m expecting a response from their top scorers in tonight’s game.

It will start with the captain Auston Matthews.

After scoring twice against the Ottawa Senators in the first round, Toronto’s captain has been held to three assists through the first four games of this series.

Matthews has averaged 3.5 shots on goal per game against the Panthers but is still looking for a goal.

In nine career playoff games versus Florida, Matthews has fired a total 40 shots on goal but has yet to score.

I’ll jump on Matthews Anytime Goal at +160.

It’s only a matter of time before Toronto’s captain gets one past Bobrovsky.

Considering the magnitude of the game, and the fact he leads the NHL in shots among players without a goal in the second round, I’m willing to bet on 34 tonight.

I also want to buy with Toronto’s second line.

William Nylander and Max Pacioretty combined for eight points in the first two games of this series on home ice.

That duo combined for 11 points before the Maple Leafs were shut out on the road in Game 4.

If Toronto is going to have any chance against Florida, the Nylander-Pacioretty duo needs to get on the board.

I’ll take Pacioretty 1+ point +124 and lock in a Nylander SGP with the Swedish Showboat to record 1+ point and 2+ shots on goal at -120.

Finally, give me a builder SGP with Matthews 3+ shots on goal, John Tavares 2+ shots on goal, and Aleksander Barkov 1+ shot on goal at +104 odds.

Regardless of the result, I expect that trio to step up and create offence in a must-win game for both teams.

The builder SGP I outlined above is 4-for-4 in the series.

Let’s hope it cashes again for us tonight.

How important is Game 5?

Over the last three seasons, when a best-of-seven is tied 2-2, the winner of Game 5 has gone on to advance 93 per cent of the time with a 13-1 record.

Buckle up, Leafs Nation.

You’ve waited a very long time for this one.

A FanDuel Best Bet For Oilers, Golden Knights

With the Maple Leafs set for a crucial Game 5 tonight, the focus will be on Toronto until the second game of tonight’s Stanley Cup Playoffs double-header.

Later tonight, the Oilers will get the opportunity to punch their ticket to the Western Conference Finals in Game 5 against the Vegas Golden Knights.

The Knights are a small favourite to extend the series this morning at -122 on the moneyline, which could be good news for bettors.

I’m not sure that Vegas can win a low-scoring game against the Oilers, and while I like Edmonton to advance, I’m not sure that series will end tonight.

Then again, Stuart Skinner was excellent in Game 4, and he’s put up some impressive numbers in Games 4-7 in the Stanley Cup Playoffs throughout his career.

After a relatively quiet Game 4, I’ll bank on the Oilers superstars to produce tonight with a chance to end the series in Vegas.

I’ll go with another builder SGP and lock in Connor McDavid 2+ shots on goal, Leon Draisaitl 2+ shots on goal, and Draisaitl 1+ point at -120.

McDavid and Draisaitl have both registered 2+ shots on goal in each of the first four games of the series.

Draisaitl failed to register a point in Game 4, so we can add his 1+ point prop at a much better price than McDavid.

Then again, my model accounts for both players registering a point tonight, so there’s always an option to bulk up this SGP a little more with McDavid 1+ point.

As always, I’ll publish my full cards for both games on my X account tonight.

Hopefully, we can enjoy another double-header with more wins than losses for the bet card.

Have a great day, everyone!