Morning Coffee: MacKinnon emerges as Hart Trophy favourite

They say absence makes the heart grow fonder.

Well, being away from work made me realize just how much I love my Morning Coffee.

Being a dad?

It’s the best job I’ve ever had.

Nothing in the world compares to it.

Still, I love what I do for work.

Sometimes I feel like I have a million tabs open in my head all at once.

There’s something about writing that clears my mind.

Even though I was technically off for the March Break week, it was impossible for me to completely disconnect.

Some might consider it an obsession.

I consider it being prepared.

You never know when an opportunity will present itself.

As of this morning, I’m still catching up on a memorable first few days of NFL free agency and the impact it will have on the draft in April.

Meanwhile, the March Madness is nearly here.

The brackets for the NCAA tournaments are set.

Also, just in case you missed it, Scottie Scheffler completed the comeback on Sunday to win The Players Championship.

Shout out to our guy Luke Bellus for continuing the tradition of giving out winners in this column during my absence last week.

Also, another shout-out to Luke for jumping on Scheffler to win The Players at 33-to-1 odds on Saturday evening.

I wish I hadn’t missed the boat on that bet.

The good news is that in my line of work, you learn to never dwell on the past too long.

There’s always the next one demanding attention.

With so much to get excited about in the coming weeks, I’ll be celebrating with the return of the FanDuel Best Bets in this column very soon.

Hopefully, we can pick up from right where we left off.

Taking some time off made me realize something.

I miss the challenge of operating in this space.

Now it’s time to get back to work.

Let’s pick up where we left off with my favourite NHL futures market this season. 

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday March 18th, 2024.

MacKinnon’s Emerges As The Hart Trophy Favourite

The last time I sat down to write Morning Coffee, Nathan MacKinnon was +140 to win the Hart Trophy at FanDuel.

One week later, MacKinnon is now -230 to win the award as the obvious favourite to earn league MVP honours.

It looks like somebody left their mark while I was away.

All MacKinnon did was register two goals and five points while leading the Colorado Avalanche to wins over the Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks, and Calgary Flames.

MacKinnon leapfrogged Nikita Kucherov for top spot in the Art Ross Trophy race with 116 points in 68 games.

He also has the Avalanche tied with the Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars for the most points in the Central Division entering the final stretch of the regular season.

While Winnipeg has a game in hand on Colorado, the Avalanche are still the favourite to win the Central at +140 odds at FanDuel this morning.

The Jets are a close second choice at +160.

The Stars are +280 to win the Central Division.

Meanwhile, Colorado is +750 as the second choice to win the Stanley Cup as behind the Florida Panthers (+650).

The Western Conference features four of the top-six choices to win it all in the Avalanche, Oilers, Stars and the Vegas Golden Knights.

Yes, you read that right.

Despite currently being the eighth seed in the Western Conference, only four NHL teams have shorter odds to win the Stanley Cup than the Golden Knights at +900.

To contend for a second ring in three seasons, Colorado will need MacKinnon to continue to produce at an elite level the rest of the way.

The Avalanche are one point back of the Canucks for the best record in the Western Conference and home-ice advantage for the playoffs.

Colorado’s path could potentially include Vegas in the first round, followed by Winnipeg or Dallas, and then Vancouver or Edmonton in the conference finals.

Simply put, the Avalanche will need to overcome an absolute gauntlet to win the Stanley Cup.

In addition to setting career highs in assists and points, MacKinnon already has the fourth-most points in a single season in franchise history.

After averaging a ridiculous 2.08 points per game over the last 30 days, MacKinnon is on pace to break the franchise record set by Paul Stastny when he registered 139 points for the Quebec Nordiques in 1981-82.

If he sets the franchise record and wins the Art Ross Trophy while leading Colorado to the best record in the Western Conference, it will be difficult to make the case for anybody other than MacKinnon to win the Hart.

At -230 odds, the traders at FanDuel give MacKinnon at 69.7 per cent implied probability to win the Hart.

That’s already a significant move off last week’s price, but that doesn’t mean the number won’t continue to move if MacKinnon continues his current pace.

In fact, FanDuel added a market that pits MacKinnon to win the Hart at -230 against “The Field” at +180.

That means anybody looking to fade MacKinnon in that award market can take the trio of McDavid, Kucherov and Auston Matthews at +180.

FanDuel also has a market for MacKinnon to record at least a point in every Colorado home game this season.

The 28-year-old is already 32-for-32 at home this season.

MacKinnon to record at least a point in each of the club’s remaining nine home games is currently +500.

A lot can change in a short period of time.

Right now, one of the best Hart Trophy conversations in recent memory has been reduced from a four-horse race with MacKinnon as the clear favourite, and then everybody else. 

Can MacKinnon keep up his blazing pace and lead the Avalanche to the best record in the Western Conference while clinching both the Art Ross and the Hart Trophies?

At this point, it wouldn’t surprise anybody.

It’s good to be back in the saddle again.

I hope you enjoyed your Morning Coffee as much as me.