Morning Coffee: Maple Leafs a big underdog for Game 6 at FanDuel

Leafs Nation, hang on to your Auston Matthews jerseys.

You’re the wayward sons of the National Hockey League.

It’s time to rise above all the noise and confusion.

The Toronto Maple Leafs were one goal away from taking a 3-0 series lead against the Florida Panthers in Round 2.

Since then, Toronto has been outscored a combined 9-1, losing three in a row to get pushed to the brink of elimination.

It doesn’t matter.

Rain or shine, Maple Leafs Square will be packed tonight.

This city has one of the most passionate hockey fanbases in the entire world and tonight could very well be last call for their 2024-25 NHL season.

Forget the heartbreak.

Leafs Nation wants a Game 7 in Toronto.

Will Matthews and company give it to them?

The Maple Leafs will be a bigger underdog tonight than they’ve been in any game in the Stanley Cup Playoffs since Matthews’ rookie season back in 2016-17.

Nearly a decade later, Toronto is two wins away from reaching the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in the Matthews era.

The opportunity is still right in front of them.

I can’t wait to see how the Buds respond in Game 6.

This is Morning Coffee for Friday May 16th, 2025.

Maple Leafs A Big Underdog For Game 6 At FanDuel

The Maple Leafs have been underdogs in all five games against the Panthers.

They’ve already upset Florida twice in the series.

If they can do it again tonight, it would set the stage for a potentially epic Game 7 in Toronto on Sunday night.

The Panthers opened -220 to win Game 6 at FanDuel.

That number has since moved to -240.

The Maple Leafs are +198 to win Game 6 – their longest odds to win a postseason game since they lost to the Washington Capitals in the first round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The Capitals won that series in six games.

Despite losing to Washington, Matthews anytime goal cashed in each of the final four games of that series.

Eight years later, he’s still looking for his first goal in the second round.

Matthews has fired 20 shots on goal in the series.

He still hasn’t found a way to solve Sergei Bobrovsky.

Matthews anytime goal is up to +200 for Game 6 – his longest odds to score in any game this season.

Meanwhile, Mitch Marner has been held without a point while getting just one shot on goal on 10 attempts in Toronto’s previous two losses.

My guy Davis Sanchez thinks Marner gets some pucks on the net in what could very well be his final game in a Maple Leafs jersey.

Toronto’s top-six forwards combined for 13 goals against the Ottawa Senators in the first round.

They combined for nine goals in the first three games against the Panthers.

That total hasn’t moved in back-to-back losses to Florida.

Considering the way that this team has been constructed, Toronto’s stars better step up tonight or it’s curtains.

Meanwhile, nearly everybody got on the scoresheet for the Panthers in their 6-1 win in Game 5.

A franchise-record 14 different players registered a point for Florida.

It was also a franchise record-tying third time in 10 games this postseason that the Panthers have scored six goals.

Florida is 5-1 all-time when leading a series 3-2.

I’m not willing to completely write off the Maple Leafs, but I will be heavily invested in the Panthers tonight.

After cashing Toronto +2.5 after Game 2 of the series, I already have Panthers to win the series and the Cats -1.5 in-pocket.

As always, Luke Bellus and I will be back with our Betting Breakdown article this afternoon as we try to move to 6-0 with our best bets for the series.

I’ll also post my full card for Game 6 to my X account.

As for the Morning Coffee Best Bet, we found another winner on Thursday as our builder SGP cashed in the Winnipeg Jets win over the Dallas Stars.

Turning the page this morning, I’ll run it back with one of the most underrated players in the series in Panthers centre Anton Lundell 1+ point at +116.

Lundell 1+ point cashed at +164 in Game 5 when he assisted on Niko Mikkola’s second-period goal.

Lundell is up to nine points in 10 games this postseason – second behind only Sam Reinhart (10) for the Panthers. 

Dating back to last year’s run to the Stanley Cup Finals, Florida has played seven games in which they either clinched or went ahead 3-2 in a series that was tied.

In those seven games, Lundell has registered a team-high nine points, including three goals.

The third line of Lundell, Brad Marchand, and Eetu Luostarinen has combined for four goals and 13 points through the first five games of this series.

I’ll lock in Lundell 1+ point at +116 as a FanDuel Best Bet.

Win or lose, hopefully Lundell can get one for me tonight.

Good luck, Leafs Nation!