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Morning Coffee: Massive upsets could have profound implications at Euro 2024


The most unforgettable moments often arise from the unlikeliest scenarios.

Sometimes, they are moments you want to forget.

If you don’t believe me, go ahead and ask Portuguese soccer fans this morning.

Portugal was a heavy favourite for its EURO 2024 group stage finale versus Georgia on Wednesday afternoon.

While they had already locked up top spot in Group F with back-to-back wins over Czechia and Turkey to begin the tournament, Portugal was a popular pick to sweep to stay perfect in the group stage with a third straight win.

Anybody who had Portugal on their EURO 2024 parlays was in for a surprise.

Georgia stunned Portugal 2-0 as a +800 underdog at FanDuel in the biggest upset in tournament history.

It was Georgia’s first-ever win at a major tournament.

Georgia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Albania were all tied for the longest odds to win EURO 2024 at the start of the tournament at 500-to-1 odds.

Three of those four teams have qualified for the knockout stage with unanticipated performances that have reshaped the entire landscape of the tournament heading into the Round of 16.

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday, June 27th, 2024.

Massive Upsets Could Have Profound Implications At Euro 2024

Georgia needed the biggest upset in tournament history to advance to the knockout stage at EURO 2024.

The Georgians will need to repeat that feat with an even bigger upset to reach the quarterfinals.

Georgia is +920 to beat Spain in the Round of 16.

No other team has longer odds to advance at FanDuel.

Georgia, Slovenia, and Slovakia all reaching the knockout stage as 500-to-1 longshots to win the tournament could have major ramifications.

Spain, Germany, France, and Portugal are four of the top five choices to win EURO 2024 at FanDuel.

All four of those teams ended up on the same side of the bracket.

Spain and Portugal will be massive favourites to advance past the Round of 16 versus Georgia and Slovenia, respectively.

France and Belgium will meet in the Round of 16, with the winner likely facing Portugal in the quarterfinals.

Germany will play Denmark, with the winner likely facing Spain in the quarterfinals.

Nobody will completely dismiss the potential for an upset in the knockout stage.

However, there’s no doubt at this point that at least on paper, France and Germany have the toughest paths to the final among the top-five choices to win EURO 2024.

Meanwhile, the pre-tournament favourite England remains the top choice to win EURO 2024 at +300.

A favourable draw certainly contributed to their position as the favourite heading into the knockout stage.

England wouldn’t have to play any of the remaining top-five choices to win EURO 2024 – Spain, Germany, France, and Portugal – until the final.

The Three Lions are a massive favourite to beat Slovakia in the Round of 16 at -750 at FanDuel.

If the betting favourites sweep the remaining matches, England would need wins over Slovakia, Italy, and the Netherlands to reach the final.

None of those potential opponents are currently shorter than 16-to-1 to win EURO 2024 at FanDuel.

In addition to being the favourite to win the tournament, England is -175 to reach the semi-finals and +120 to reach the final at FanDuel.

While Georgia, Slovenia, and Slovakia are the biggest surprises to reach the knockout stage, they aren’t the only pre-tournament longshots still in contention.

Austria could be found at +7000 to win EURO 2024 at FanDuel at the start of the tournament.

The Austrians are down to +1600 to win it all – tied with Italy as the seventh choice in that market.

Meanwhile, Switzerland was +8500 to win EURO 2024 at the start of the tournament.

The Swiss are down to +3600 as the ninth choice.

Will we see another notable upset in the Round of 16?

With the Stanley Cup Final and NBA Finals a big part of my focus over the past few weeks, I’m a little late to the party in terms of a FanDuel Best Bet for EURO 2024.

The good news is that our very own Tekeyah Singh and Stephen Caldwell have held it down with three FanDuel Same Game Parlay winners at 3-to-1 odds or longer across both EURO 2024 and Copa America.

I’m looking forward to seeing what they build for Canada’s final Copa America group stage match versus Chile on Saturday.

In the meantime, I’m going to lock in a couple of FanDuel Best Bets for the Euro 2024 Round of 16.

First up, I’ll take Italy over Switzerland at -152.

Shocking, huh?

Well, despite not showing their best form in the group stage, Italy found a way to overcome adversity and claw its way into the Round of 16.

Perhaps I’m wrong, but I believe the Italians have more to give and that we will see their best form in a win over Switzerland on Saturday afternoon.

Hopefully, we get some good patio weather in Toronto.

For my second FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll lock in a parlay with Germany and France to advance to the quarterfinals.

Germany dominated in the expected goals category while earning seven of a possible nine points in group stage.

The EURO 2024 hosts are a heavy favourite to advance at -400 at FanDuel and I think they get there.

Meanwhile, France is another team that I feel has yet to show its best form at EURO 2024, but they are a -290 favourite versus Belgium.

Only England and Spain have shorter odds to win the tournament than France at FanDuel this morning.

Failing to reach the quarters would be a massive disappointment.

I’ll lock in Italy to advance versus Switzerland at -152 and a traditional parlay with Germany and France to advance at -147 as my FanDuel Best Bets for the EURO 2024 Round of 16.