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Morning Coffee: McCarthy’s odds to go No. 2 overall in NFL Draft on the move

Michigan J.J. McCarthy J.J. McCarthy - The Canadian Press

We are 30 days away from the 2024 NFL Draft.

If the past 24 hours are any indication, a lot can change in the FanDuel futures markets between now and then.

USC quarterback Caleb Williams is the overwhelming favourite to go first overall to the Chicago Bears.

As of this morning, FanDuel has him at -8000 to go No. 1.

That number represents a 98.8 per cent implied probability.

At this point, it would be absolutely shocking if any other quarterback goes to the Bears at No. 1.

FanDuel’s odds for the No. 2 overall pick are a little more interesting.

LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels remains the betting favourite to be selected second overall at -125.

North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye is a close second choice in that market at +200.

However, it’s Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy who has been in the spotlight over the past 24 hours amid reports that some NFL executives believe that the Washington Commanders will draft him with the No. 2 overall pick.

That speculation has sparked a major change in McCarthy’s odds to go second overall at FanDuel.

This is the Morning Coffee for Tuesday, March 26th, 2024.

McCarthy’s Odds To Go No. 2 Overall In NFL Draft On The Move

The Bears are on the clock with the first overall pick.

The overwhelming consensus is that Chicago will select Williams at No. 1.

Only a very small group of people close to the situation know what will happen after that.

The Commanders are set to pick No. 2 in the NFL Draft.

After the new ownership group hit the reset button this offseason with a new general manager in Adam Peters and a new head coach in Dan Quinn, the No. 2 overall pick gives Washington a chance to complete its reset by selecting a franchise quarterback.

While Daniels and Maye have each had a turn as the betting favourite to be the No. 2 overall pick at FanDuel, McCarthy’s odds to go second overall have shifted dramatically over the past 24 hours.

On Monday morning, McCarthy to go No. 2 overall could be found as high as 10-to-1 at FanDuel.

18 hours later, McCarthy’s odds to go second overall were down to +450 at FanDuel.

As it stands this morning, McCarthy to go No. 2 is +350.

That number represents a 22.2 per cent implied probability.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if that number continued to move.

Two years ago, the Jacksonville Jaguars surprised a lot of people when they selected defensive end Travon Walker out of Georgia with the first overall pick.

Last year, there was plenty of discussion about whether the Carolina Panthers would select Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud with the first overall pick in the NFL Draft, before the Panthers ultimately went with Young.

While Williams is considered the obvious pick to go No. 1, the only thing that seems obvious about the No. 2 pick is that Washington will select a quarterback.

It wouldn’t be surprising if the Commanders took Daniels, McCarthy, or even Maye with the second selection.

Considering the lack of clarity in the market, I was willing to take a chance and risk one unit on McCarthy to be the No. 2 overall pick at +500 at FanDuel.

I still think there is value betting on McCarthy at +350 to go No. 2 overall. 

The worst-case scenario still involves the opportunity to hedge with either Daniels or Maye to go second overall.

With 30 days to go before the 2024 NFL Draft, the odds in FanDuel’s futures markets will continue to fluctuate right up until the opening round.

This will create some unique opportunities to capitalize in specific NFL Draft markets.

I believe there is still value in risking one unit on McCarthy to be the second overall pick at 3-to-1 or longer odds at FanDuel.