Morning Coffee: McDavid emerges as obvious favourite to win Conn Smythe Trophy

Early upsets fueled the excitement of these NBA Playoffs.

They also increased the chances of a one-sided finish.

When you clear the obstacles that could potentially block an expected outcome, its likelihood grows stronger.

At the start of the NBA Playoffs, basketball fans wanted to know if the Oklahoma City Thunder could overcome the challenges presented by opponents like the Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, Denver Nuggets, Cleveland Cavaliers and the defending champion Boston Celtics.

It turns out Oklahoma City could win the championship without having to play more than one of those teams.

Three weeks ago, I suggested it might be last call to bet Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder at plus money to win the NBA championship at FanDuel.

The Lakers and Clippers were eliminated in the West.

The Celtics and Cavaliers were in trouble in the East.

Oklahoma City was the favourite to win it all at +185.

The eventual Eastern Conference finalists – the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks – weren’t even among the top six choices to win the NBA championship.

21 days later, SGA and the Thunder can clinch a spot in the NBA Finals with a win as an 8.5-point favourite against the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals.

Oklahoma City’s odds to win the title this morning: -410.

Last night, we watched Tyrese Haliburton do something that’s never been done before as he scored 32 points with 15 assists, 12 rebounds, four steals, and zero turnovers in Indiana’s 130-121 win over New York.

Haliburton is the first player in NBA history with 30 or more points, 15 or more assists, and zero turnovers in a postseason game.

The Pacers odds to advance shifted from -220 to -590.

However, their NBA title odds barely moved from +600 to +460 after taking a 3-1 series lead.

Meanwhile, the Thunder didn’t play a game, but their title odds were slightly adjusted from -390 to -410.

In an NBA postseason full of surprises, none would be bigger than a conclusion other than Oklahoma City winning the title and SGA winning NBA Finals MVP.

I wasn’t sure how we would get there, but FanDuel’s odds highlight just how lopsided the NBA Finals could be.

As for the Stanley Cup Finals, the opposite is true.

The Edmonton Oilers are one win away from a rematch with the defending champion Florida Panthers on hockey’s biggest stage.

FanDuel has made the potential rematch a pick’em, with both sides at -110 to win according to their hypothetical Stanley Cup Finals odds.

As somebody with futures bets on the Panthers and Oilers to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals, I might be somewhat biased, but I think most hockey fans outside of Dallas and Carolina are cheering for the same conclusion.

Florida versus Edmonton in the Stanley Cup Finals.

One more opportunity for the greatest hockey player on the planet to fulfill the dream he’s been chasing since he was a child.

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday May 28^th, 2025.

McDavid Emerges As Obvious Favourite To Win Conn Smythe Trophy

Connor McDavid and the Oilers are on a mission.

One year after they fell one win short in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals, Edmonton is one win away from an opportunity at redemption.

The fact that it’s more likely than not that the Panthers will be waiting for them in the Stanley Cup Finals adds another layer to an already thrilling narrative.

After leading the Oilers with a pair of goals in their win over the Stars in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals, McDavid registered two assists in last night’s 4-1 win in Game 4.

McDavid now has more career playoff games with two or more points (45) than games with zero or one point (44).

With seven points through the first four games of the series, McDavid leads these Stanley Cup Playoffs with 19 assists and 24 points.

It’s the fourth time in franchise history that Edmonton has led a best-of-seven playoff series 3-1.

The Oilers ended the series in five games in each of the previous three instances.

Meanwhile, the Stars are 0-16 all-time when they trail 3-1 in a best-of-seven series.

Dallas won Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals after a five-goal outburst in the third period.

The Stars have three total goals in the other 10 periods combined so far in the series.

Stuart Skinner has stopped 86 of the 88 shots he’s faced during Edmonton’s three-game win streak.

Meanwhile, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins also recorded a pair of assists in Game 4 and leads the Oilers with nine points in the series.

Edmonton’s odds to advance shifted from -365 to -1100 following last night’s win.

The Oilers to win the Stanley Cup from +145 to +110.

As impressive as Skinner, RNH, Leon Draisaitl, Cory Perry, and Evan Bouchard have been this postseason, McDavid remains the obvious Conn Smythe Trophy favourite.

McDavid, who opened at +1700 to win the Conn Smythe, is down to +160 as the frontrunner in that market.

In addition to another multi-point performance, McDavid led all Edmonton skaters with 23:12 of total ice time, including an impressive 3:40 on the penalty kill.

With Zach Hyman exiting the game early due to injury, the line of McDavid, RNH, and Perry produced the best on-ice XG of any line in 6:26 together at five-on-five.

McDavid leads the Oilers in expected goals (6.8), assists (19), primary assists (13), and points (24), while driving the pace at 5-on-5, on the power-play, and thriving on a penalty call that has displayed marked improvement.

Sergei Bobrovsky (+220) is the only other contender with shorter than +800 odds to win the award this morning.

Skinner, who could be found as high as 500-to-1 to win the Conn Smythe Trophy at FanDuel, is down to 110-to-1.

Nugent-Hopkins and Bouchard are both 190-to-1.

Draisaitl is the third choice behind McDavid and Bobrovsky at +800.

As far as I’m concerned, McDavid is the obvious pick as the favourite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy.

I’m already looking forward to seeing what he does next.

In the meantime, we get Game 5 between the Panthers and Hurricanes tonight.

As somebody sitting on tickets with Florida to win the series and Panthers -1.5, I’d love for the Cats to wrap things up tonight in Carolina.

In terms of a FanDuel Bet Bet, I’ll go with Florida to win the game on the moneyline at -128.

The Panthers won each of the first three games of the series by two goals or more.

While they laid an egg in Game 4 on home ice, they did the same thing in Game 6 of their second round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs and bounced back with a 6-1 win in Game 7.

The Hurricanes managed to avoid another Eastern Conference Finals sweep, but I expect a response from Florida tonight with another chance to clinch the series.

I’ll lock in Panthers moneyline as a FanDuel Best Bet.

Have a great day, everyone!