Morning Coffee: NFL Week 3 could feature four double-digit favourites

Welcome to Week 3 of the NFL season.

There’s no time like the present for a quick Betting 101.

When you bet on the NFL at FanDuel, the point spread represents the margin of points that the team listed as the favourite must win by in order to “cover the spread.”

Parity is a major theme in the NFL. Think of the point spread is the ultimate equalizer.

When Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens hosted rookie C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans in their home opener back in Week 1, it was clear that the Ravens had a significant edge on paper.

You don’t have to be a sharp bettor to know which team was more likely to win that game.

Baltimore closed -9.5 at FanDuel. The Ravens won that game by 16 points. They covered the point spread by a six-point margin.

Fast-forward two weeks and Baltimore -9.5 remains the largest closing point spread at FanDuel so far this season.

However, if the current FanDuel numbers hold, that will change in Week 3.

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday Sept. 20, 2023.

NFL Week 3 could feature four double-digit favourites

In Week 1, the Ravens covered easily as a 9.5-point favourite in their 25-10 win over the Texans.

In Week 2, the Buffalo Bills opened as the biggest favourite on the board at -9.5 against the Las Vegas Raiders.

However, the Raiders turned out to be a popular choice to cover the spread at +9.5, which led to that line shifting all the way to Buffalo -7.5 by the time they kicked off. The Bills cruised to a 38-10 win in their home opener.

Anyone who thought 9.5 points was enough to bet on the Raiders to cover the point spread was wrong. Buffalo won and covered, easily.

While the point spread winner was obvious in that game, Week 2 did give us one of the most dramatic point spread swings in NFL history in the 4 p.m. ET window.

The San Francisco 49ers could be found anywhere between -6.5 and -7.5 at FanDuel for their game against the Los Angeles Rams.

Anyone who bet on San Francisco to cover the point spread at any of those numbers was in position to cash their bet as the 49ers led Los Angeles 30-20 in the final seconds of regulation.

Then Rams’ head coach Sean McVay absolutely stunned anyone who bet on the game when he sent out his special teams to kick a field goal down 10 points with the final seconds ticking off the clock.

Brett Maher made the 38-yard field goal with no time left. San Francisco won the game 30-23.

If you bet the 49ers -6.5 early in the week, then you were safe. If you the 49ers -7.5 on Sunday, then you were not. Officially, L.A. covered as a 7.5-point underdog.

If you bet the Rams +7, then under the circumstances you had to be thrilled with the result as you got your money back with a push.

Looking ahead to Week 3, the point spreads indicate that the traders at FanDuel are expecting a handful of lopsided results.

If the current point spread numbers hold, then four of the five most lopsided matchups of the NFL season will take place in Week 3.

The Kansas City Chiefs are a 12.5-point favourite against the Chicago Bears. The Bears are 0-2 against the spread this season and 8-18-1 ATS when Justin Fields starts at quarterback.

Over the past 10 seasons, Chicago is 0-5-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog.

Since 2000, the under is 15-3 when the Bears are a double-digit underdog.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys are in position to match the Chiefs as the biggest favourite so far this season as a 12.5-point favourite against the Arizona Cardinals.

Dallas is 2-0 ATS this season and an NFL-best 25-11 ATS over the last three seasons.

The Cowboys are also an NFL-best 13-5 ATS on the road over that same span. The Cardinals are 0-2 straight up, but 2-0 ATS this season.

The 49ers are currently a 10-point favourite for the Week 3 opener against the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football.

San Francisco has covered five straight and 10 of its past 11 games as a home favourite.

Finally, the Jacksonville Jaguars are currently a 9.5-point favourite for Sunday’s game against the Texans.

Trevor Lawrence is 0-5 ATS all-time as a home favourite.

Houston has won nine of the past 10 head-to-head meetings outright.

It will be very interesting to see if those trends continue in Sunday’s contest.