Morning Coffee: Richardson, Jones will continue QB1 battle in Colts Pre-Season opener

The Indianapolis Colts need a franchise quarterback.

When they selected Anthony Richardson Sr. fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, they couldn’t have imagined they’d be stuck playing QB roulette two years later.

In his two seasons as the offensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles, Shane Steichen guided an offence that ranked first in the NFL in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns.

In February of 2023, Steichen was hired as the head coach in Indianapolis.

Two months later, the math made sense when the Colts drafted Richardson with the first pick in the Steichen era.

With Richardson, star running back Jonathan Taylor, and one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, Steichen had the pieces to replicate the success he had with Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, and a dominant line in Philadelphia.

Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.

Richardson played just four games as a rookie before he suffered a season-ending Grade 3 AC joint sprain in his right throwing shoulder.

The 6’4’’, 244-pound Richardson made a full recovery in time for the 2024 NFL season but dealt with several more injuries that limited his production and forced him to miss time before eventually being shut down for the final two weeks of the regular season with a back injury.

Richardson is fully healthy once again heading into the 2025 NFL season.

Only this time around, there is no guarantee that he will be the Colts Week 1 starter.

After missing the playoffs in back-to-back years and going a combined 8-7 in 15 games with Richardson at QB, the brain trust in Indianapolis opted to sign unrestricted free agent Daniel Jones to a one-year contract that comes with a $14.5 million cap hit.

Jones was brought in to battle Richardson in a starting quarterback competition that has been described as “neck and neck” throughout training camp.

While Richardson has reportedly shown improvements throughout team practices, Steichen has emphasized his plan to use the pre-season to evaluate both quarterbacks before committing to a Week 1 starter.

Richardson, who just turned 23-years-old in May, remains the heavy favourite to open the season as the starter in Indianapolis at FanDuel.

However, the majority of FanDuel bettors have wagered on Jones to get the nod as the starting QB for the Colts at just longer than 2-to-1 odds ahead of their pre-season opener tonight in Baltimore.

This is Morning Coffee for Thursday August 7th, 2025.

Richardson, Jones Will Continue QB1 Battle In Colts Pre-Season Opener

Richardson is -350 to be the Colts starting QB against the Miami Dolphins in Week 1 of the regular season.

That number translates to a 77.8 per cent implied probability.

Jones to start for Indianapolis is +255 at FanDuel.

While it makes sense that Richardson is the favourite based on his pedigree as the fourth overall pick from the 2023 NFL Draft, the fact that he’s struggled to stay on the field, struggled when he’s been on the field, and hasn’t created any significant separation from Jones in camp all leave the door open for a change at quarterback.

Richardson’s 48 per cent completion rate in 2024 was the lowest by any NFL quarterback since Tim Tebow in 2011.

His 0.8 TD/INT ratio is the worst among any NFL QB with at least 15 starts over the past two seasons.

The fact that Richardson has been limited to playing in 15 of a possible 34 games since entering the league means that even if he wins the starting job, the Colts will need a legitimate backup quarterback in the event of injury.

Still, Steichen has maintained that Jones will has a chance to win the starting job this pre-season.

Steichen announced that Richardson will start and play the entire first quarter and half of the second in tonight’s exhibition against the Baltimore Ravens.

Jones will play the second half of the second quarter.

The plan is to flip their roles in next week’s pre-season game against the Green Bay Packers, when Jones would start and Richardson would finish the second quarter.

While I’d imagine Steichen and the Indianapolis brass want to give Richardson every opportunity to start, there’s always the potential for him to struggle enough that Jones wins the starting QB job.

There’s also the potential for another Richardson injury – another reason FanDuel bettors would be interested to take a chance on Jones at +255 to win the starting job.

Per the FanDuel traders, 72 per cent of the bets in the Colts starting QB market are on Jones to win the job.

Anybody with a wager on that market will be watching tonight when Indianapolis clashes with Baltimore.

No NFL coach has been better in NFL pre-season games than John Harbaugh, who is 38-22-1 against the spread in exhibition games.

At one point, Harbaugh led Baltimore to 24 straight pre-season wins.

Still, the spread for tonight’s game is up to Colts -6.5.

That’s in part because Richardson and Jones will compete for the starting job for Indianapolis while the Ravens have gone 1-4 in exhibition play since that 24-game win streak was snapped.

Indy is expected to feature most of its starting offence, including second-year wide receiver AD Mitchell, who should be comfortable coming off a strong week of joint practices with the Ravens.

Harbaugh will rest his starters after a week of joint practices with the Colts.

That should open the door for Richardson and Jones to have a strong first half in Baltimore.

The spread for tonight’s game was Ravens -1.5 before all the news surrounding both teams pushed the line all the way to Indianapolis -6.5.

In terms of a FanDuel Best Bet, I’m willing to roll the dice on Colts -3.5 first half knowing how important the first two quarters will be for Richardson and Jones against backups for Baltimore.

Remember, Richardson is only 23 years old and with two years in Indy under his belt, he still has the potential to take a major step forward this season if all goes right.

Indianapolis is +172 to make the playoffs at FanDuel.

Can Richardson help the Colts end their postseason drought?

I’m excited to see him back in action tonight – even if it is only exhibition play.

Meanwhile, I’ll also tail our betting guru Davis Sanchez with his play on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats -3.5 against the BC Lions tonight, which he gave out as his Early Lean for Week 10.

Of course, I must give a special shout out to the birthday boy this morning!

Also, don’t forget to read 3rd and 1 by Drew Morrison.

Drew went 4-0 with his best bets for Week 9 of the CFL season and is looking to run it back with his column picks set to be posted later this afternoon.

Enjoy the football, everyone!