Morning Coffee: SGA, Thunder a historic favourite for Game 3 of NBA Finals

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is exactly one year away.

Picture this: 12 months from now, Canadians are dialed in, the streets are filled with soccer fans waving flags, bars are packed, and the celebrations fill the streets.

I don’t even want to think about the traffic.

TSN will be the home of everything to do with the highly anticipated 2026 FIFA World Cup on Canadian soil.

In case you missed it, our countdown continues tonight with the 2026 FIFA World Cup: 1 Year To Go Special.

And in case you’re wondering, FanDuel has Canada to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup at +8500 this morning.

That number represents a 1.2 per cent implied chance.

Sure, Canada will be a longshot against the best in the world on soccer’s biggest stage next summer.

At the same time, all you need to do is consider this year’s NBA Finals for another example of an underdog that has defied the betting odds.

The Indiana Pacers were +6500 to win the NBA title at FanDuel at the start of the NBA Playoffs.

Look at them now.

The Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder are tied 1-1 as the NBA Finals shift to Indiana for Game 3 tonight.

Despite stunning OKC on the road in the series opener, the Pacers are +184 to win Game 3 on their home floor.

The Thunder opened -3.5 at FanDuel.

Oklahoma City is -5 at FanDuel this morning.

Despite struggling to cover the spread on the road this postseason, the current number makes the Thunder the fifth-biggest NBA Finals favourite since the merger.

Can Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company live up to the hype as a historic favourite for Game 3 of the NBA Finals?

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday June 11th, 2025.

SGA, Thunder A Historic Favourite For Game 3 Of NBA Finals

Indiana’s epic NBA Finals run has been well documented.

The Pacers were +5000 to win the NBA championship at FanDuel last summer and +6500 to win it all entering their first round series against the Milwaukee Bucks.

After cruising past the Bucks in five, Indiana stunned the basketball world with back-to-back series wins over the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks.

The Pacers became just the seventh team in NBA history to advance to the NBA Finals after back-to-back series wins as an underdog.

Unfortunately, nearly every relevant historical statistic pointed towards this being as good as it would get.

The previous six teams that pulled off back-to-back series upsets in the conference semi-finals and conference finals went a combined 1-5 in the NBA Finals.

Indiana is also the sixth team that made it to the NBA Finals at +2000 or longer to win the title at the start of the postseason.

The previous five went a combined 0-5 in the NBA Finals.

With a date against a historically dominant Thunder team on deck, FanDuel made the Pacers +530 to win the title entering the NBA Finals.

For perspective, Oklahoma City to complete the four-game series sweep was considered more likely at +290.

How did Indiana respond to opening as the fifth-largest underdog in NBA Finals history?

With an unprecedented comeback win as a +340 underdog in Game 1 on the road.

The Pacers could be found as high as +2000 to win Game 1 at FanDuel down nine points in the final three minutes.

After the Thunder responded with a win and cover as an 11.5-point favourite in Game 2, the NBA Finals has been reduced to a best-of-five.

OKC opened -3.5 for Game 3 at FanDuel.

That number has since been bet up to Thunder -5.

Per the FanDuel traders, 67 per cent of the bets so far are on Oklahoma City to cover the spread.

Despite a couple of days off for travel, the Thunder’s odds to win the NBA title have shifted from -550 to -650.

NBA teams coming off a lost this postseason have gone a combined 42-22 against the spread for a 66 per cent cover rate.

Can Indiana keep Game 3 close and cover +5?

What about another upset at +188 to win outright?

If the Pacers are going to have a chance in this series, they’re going to have to figure out how to slow down the regular season MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

SGA has exploded for 72 points over the first two games, passing Allen Iverson for the most points by any player in their first two NBA Finals games.

SGA’s 34 points were double any of Indiana’s players.

FanDuel has SGA at over/under 33.5 points for Game 3.

He’s +255 to score 40+ and +600 to score 45+.

Indiana is 13-0 straight up when they score 110+ points.

If the Pacers can’t slow down SGA, they’ll need to find a way to keep up at the offensive end, which brings me to my FanDuel Best Bet for Game 3 of the NBA Finals.

Meanwhile, the fact that the Thunder are such a big favourite is even more interesting when you consider that they are 0-7 against the spread on the road this postseason.

Will OKC get its first postseason ATS road win in Game 3 of the NBA Finals?

I’ll lock in Aaron Nesmith over 17.5 points and rebounds.

Nesmith went over this number in each of the first two games of the NBA Finals on the road, including in Game 2 when he played just 26 minute and sat out the fourth quarter of a blowout loss.

While Tyrese Haliburton has been the hero for Indiana, Nesmith has shown flashes of his potential throughout these NBA Playoffs and could help provide a much-needed spark both in terms of scoring and on the boards in a critical Game 3 at home.

The fact that he just cleared this mark in three quarters in Oklahoma City in Game 3 makes me more confident he can do it in a full four quarters with the fans cheering him on in Indiana.

I’ll lock in Nesmith over 17.5 points and rebounds as my FanDuel Best Bet for Game 3 of the NBA Finals.

Have a great day, everyone!