Morning Coffee: Stampeders emerge as CFL’s biggest surprise team

The Calgary Stampeders are the CFL’s biggest surprise.

If you don’t believe me, just ask the guy who still wears his 1992 Doug Flutie jersey to the office after every win.

Last season, the Stampeders stumbled to a 5-12-1 record and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2004.

The response was a complete offseason overhaul of the coaching staff and roster that created several unknowns heading into the 2025 CFL season.

As it turns out, Calgary has exceeded all expectations.

The Stampeders are tied for the CFL’s best record at 4-1. 

Coming off back-to-back upset wins over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Saskatchewan Roughriders, it seems as though Calgary is already ready to contend in a stacked CFL West Division.

Next up, the Stampeders head to Winnipeg for a rematch with the Blue Bombers on Friday Night Football.

A surprise start was enough to push Calgary into the CFL spotlight heading into an intriguing Week 7 clash.

If they can upset Winnipeg for the second time in as any meetings on Friday Night Football, it might just be enough for the office Stamps fan to consider replacing his vintage Flutie throwback with a Vernon Adams Jr. jersey from the CFL shop.

This is Morning Coffee for Wednesday July 16th, 2025.

Stampeders Emerge As CFL’s Biggest Surprise Team

It would have been easy to overlook the Stampeders as a surprise contender entering the 2025 CFL season.

The Blue Bombers were running it back with several core veteran players as a co-favourite to win the Grey Cup.

The Saskatchewan Roughriders had an identical win total at 10.5 – tied with Winnipeg for the CFL’s highest number.

If there was a team that could surprise in the West, the BC Lions certainly fit the bill with Nathan Rourke back at quarterback and a full offseason to build around him.

The Lions were the third choice to win the West Division at +340 at FanDuel entering Week 1.

The Bombers were the division favourite at +210.

The Roughriders were the second choice at +270.

The fact that the Stampeders weren’t a top three choice to win the West Division at FanDuel might seem like a surprise following their CFL-best 4-1 start.

What if I told you that they weren’t a top four choice?

Yes, even the Edmonton Elks had shorter odds to win the West Division at FanDuel when the CFL season kicked off.

The Elks were +430 as the fourth choice to win the West.

Calgary had the longest odds to win the West at +600.

At the time, the Stampeders were tied with Edmonton for the longest odds to win the Grey Cup at +2600.

Seven weeks later, Calgary is tied with Saskatchewan for the best record in the CFL at 4-1.

Adams Jr. has gone from +2000 to +380 as the second choice to win the CFL’s Most Outstanding Player award.

Meanwhile, the Stampeders odds to win the Grey Cup have been cut from +2600 to +600.

They’ve gone from the longest odds in the CFL to the fourth choice to win it all behind the Montreal Alouettes, Bombers, and Riders at FanDuel.

Calgary has already secured upset wins over two of the teams that remain ahead of them in that market.

Despite the wins over Winnipeg and Saskatchewan, nobody is rushing to crown the Stampeders the best in the west this early in the season.

The Bombers are a 4.5-point favourite for this week’s rematch with Calgary on Friday Night Football.

In fact, the Stampeders have been the underdog at FanDuel in four of their first five games.

Ironically, Calgary’s only defeat came in its lone game as a favourite at FanDuel – a 20-12 loss to the Ottawa Redblacks back in Week 3.

How important is Friday night’s rematch with Winnipeg?

If Adams can lead the Stampeders to another upset win, they’ll at least temporarily move into sole possession of first place in the CFL standings at 5-1, with a 3-0 record versus the Bombers and Riders.

FanDuel set Calgary’s regular season win total at 5.5.

Last year, the Stampeders didn’t get to five wins until October.

The fact that they can match last season’s win total in their first six games of the 2025 CFL season is remarkable.

However, there is also a flipside to that coin.

Calgary could fall to 4-2 with a loss in Winnipeg.

The Stampeders are set to host the Grey Cup favourite Alouettes on Thursday Night Football in Week 8.

Then they travel across the country to visit Ottawa in Week 9, before hosting the Bombers again in Week 10.

Calgary could improve to a CFL-best 5-1 in Week 7.

The Stampeders could also fall to 4-2 while staring down a tough three-game stretch that features two of the top three choices to win the Grey Cup as well as a road game against the only team that has beat them this season.

There’s no doubt Calgary is the CFL’s biggest surprise.

The next four games on the schedule could determine whether the Stampeders remain on their current trajectory as a legitimate Grey Cup contender or take a step back.

I can’t wait to see what happens next. 

Have a great day, everyone!