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Morning Coffee: Stars are a popular pick to win West Final at FanDuel
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It’s a great time to be a Dallas sports fan.
Six months after the Texas Rangers won the World Series, the magic number for the Lone Star Trifecta is 15.
The Dallas Stars are eight wins away from a Stanley Cup.
The Dallas Mavericks are seven wins away from an NBA championship.
Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving combined for 63 points in the Mavericks’ 108-105 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 of the NBA Western Conference Finals last night.
Dallas to advance to the NBA Finals flipped from +142 all the way to -164 at FanDuel following the Game 1 win.
The Mavericks went from +500 to +350 to win the NBA championship.
Minnesota is currently a five-point favourite for Game 2.
Meanwhile, the Stars will host the Edmonton Oilers in Game 1 of the NHL’s Western Conference Finals tonight.
Dallas is -130 to win the opener and -126 to advance.
Only the Florida Panthers (+160) have shorter odds to win the Stanley Cup than the Stars at +230 at FanDuel.
On Tuesday, I locked in my favourite futures play for the conference finals with a bet on Dallas to win the West.
On Wednesday, we opened the conference finals with a FanDuel Best Bet winner for Game 1 in the East as the Florida Panthers beat the New York Rangers 3-0.
This morning, we’ll attempt to stay hot with another FanDuel Best Bet winner for Game 1 between the Stars and Oilers.
This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday May 23rd, 2024.
Stars Are A Popular Pick To Win West Finals At FanDuel
A two-leg parlay with the Mavericks and Stars to win their respective championships could be found at +1880 at FanDuel on Wednesday afternoon.
At the time, both teams to advance past their conference finals could be found at +336.
A four-leg parlay with the Mavericks, Stars, Dallas Cowboys and Texas Rangers to win their respective titles this season could be found at +601820.
However, as ESPN highlighted on Wednesday, there’s no reason to get too far ahead of ourselves here.
The Stars are currently a -130 favourite for Game 1 against the Oilers.
However, it’s worth highlighting that Dallas has lost six straight Game 1s under head coach Pete DeBoer.
That stretch includes Game 1 losses to the Vegas Golden Knights and the Colorado Avalanche in the first two rounds of these playoffs.
Edmonton is currently +108 to win the series opener.
The Oilers are +105 to advance to the Stanley Cup Final.
It marks the first time Edmonton has been an underdog in a series since the 2022 Western Conference Finals against the Colorado Avalanche.
According to the FanDuel traders, 72 per cent of the stakes are on Dallas to win Game 1.
In the series winner market at FanDuel, 79 per cent of the bets and a whopping 91 per cent of the handle is on the Stars to advance.
Last night, the Mavericks won Game 1 of a series for the first time under head coach Jason Kidd.
They were previously 0-5 in Game 1 since Kidd became head coach.
Tonight, the Stars will attempt to follow suit.
Teams that win Game 1 in a best-of-seven series have gone on to win the series 67.9 per cent of the time.
The Oilers are 22-3 all-time when they win Game 1.
That’s the best record by any NHL team in that situation.
Of course, if Edmonton is going to begin the Western Conference Finals with a win tonight, they’ll need their best players to deliver again tonight.
Connor McDavid is the most popular pick to win the Conn Smythe Trophy at FanDuel.
Zach Hyman is the favourite to be the series leading goal scorer.
Then there’s Leon Draisaitl, who leads all scorers with 24 points in these playoffs – three more than McDavid.
Still, Draisaitl is only the fifth choice to win the Conn Smythe Trophy at +850.
Draisaitl’s 12-game point streak to begin the playoffs is the second-longest point streak to begin a postseason in franchise history behind Mark Messier in 1988 (14).
He’s +360 to record at least one point in every game in the series.
For Game 1, I have my eye on his shots on goal props.
Draisaitl’s 45 shots on goal this postseason ranks second on the Oilers behind only Hyman (50).
His 83 shot attempts are the second-most behind Evan Bouchard’s 95 shot attempts.
In addition to averaging 3.75 shots on goal on 6.91 shot attempts per game this postseason, Draisaitl has registered at least two shots on goal in 11 of 12 games.
He’s recorded three or more shots in nine of 12.
Meanwhile for the Stars, Wyatt Johnston has led the way with 45 shots on goal on 99 shot attempt this postseason.
If you’re a regular reader of this column, then you know that I’ve been riding with another Stars forward in Tyler Seguin.
Seguin is second on Dallas with 39 shots on goal on 63 attempts.
He’s averaged 3.0 shots on goal on 4.84 attempts per game this postseason.
Most importantly, Seguin has registered two or more shots on goal in 12 of the 13 playoff games.
He’s recorded three or more in nine of 13 but hasn’t hit that mark in three straight since moving to centre a line between Jamie Benn and Evgeni Dadonov following the Roope Hintz injury.
While I considered Johnston 3+ shots on goal, I’ll stick with Draisaitl and Seguin for my FanDuel Best Bet.
For the record, adding Johnston 2+ shots on goal pushes this SGP to +118 this morning.
But I’m leaving it to Draisaitl and Seguin to cash this bet.
Have a great day, everyone!