Morning Coffee: Underdog Maple Leafs turn favourites after Game 1 win over Panthers

Rudy is a friend.

Yeah, I know, he’s been a good friend of mine.

But lately something’s changed that ain’t hard to define, Rudy’s got himself a favourite hockey team and I want to make them mine.

Shout out to Rick Springfield – I get it.

You know that feeling when he’s singing “Jessie’s Girl”, just pining for what somebody else has?

That was the vibe as I watched the Toronto Maple Leafs take Game 1 against the Florida Panthers last night.

You know I wish that I had Maple Leafs moneyline.

The city of Toronto is still buzzing about it this morning.

William Nylander started the party just 33 seconds in – the seventh-fastest playoff goal in franchise history.

12 minutes later, Willy Styles doubled down to become the first Maple Leaf with multiple goals in consecutive postseason games since Wendel Clark in 1994.

Then Morgan Rielly and Chris Tanev added to Toronto’s total to make it 4-1 through 40.

The defending Stanley Cup champions didn’t go down without a fight, but the Maple Leafs weathered a late push after Joseph Woll replaced the injured Anthony Stolarz, and Matthew Knies put the game out of reach with his fourth goal of the postseason.

I admit it -  I wish that I had Maple Leafs moneyline.

How many times has that thought crossed my mind in the Stanley Cup Playoffs over the past 20 seasons?

Fortunately for yours truly, it was a great night otherwise.

Luke Bellus and I swept our best bets in his Betting Breakdown, I went 7-1 with my player prop bets, and we cashed a +339 FanDuel Same Game Parlay.

With two games on deck in the Stanley Cup Playoffs tonight, I’ve already locked in a FanDuel Best Bet below.

Meanwhile, it will be an anxious 24 hours as the city of Toronto hopes its beloved blue and white has finally escaped its postseason demons.

The Maple Leafs are now the betting favourite to win their second round series, but the early Game 2 odds have trended in the opposite direction.

This is TSN’s Morning Coffee for Tuesday May 6th, 2025.

Underdog Maple Leafs Turn Favourites After Game 1 Win Over Panthers

Leafs Nation has waited 23 years for this cup of coffee.

For the first time since 2002, the Maple Leafs have a series lead beyond Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Toronto, which entered the second round with the longest odds to advance of any team at FanDuel, flipped from +146 to -122 to win the series at FanDuel.

That current number gives the Maple Leafs a 55 per cent implied series win probability.

Meanwhile, Toronto’s odds to win the Stanley Cup were cut from +1000 to +700 at FanDuel overnight.

Leafs Nation couldn’t have imagined the dark days ahead as they sang along to “Here Comes The Sun” by The Beatles on their record players just two years after Toronto’s last Stanley Cup win.

It’s been a long cold lonely winter.

Nobody is planning the parade just yet, but a Game 1 win over the defending Stanley Cup champions is certainly a massive step in the right direction.

Of course, Leafs Nation has one big concern this morning.

What is the status of their No. 1 goaltender?

Nobody is expecting the Panthers to just go away after one loss, and with Stolarz sidelined, Florida has already been bet from -122 to -132 to win Game 2 at FanDuel.

As much as I wish I had Maple Leafs moneyline last night, I’m going back to the Panthers to win Game 2 at -132.

Florida was the favourite to win the Stanley Cup and a heavy favourite to win this series entering the second round, so I’m not expecting the Cats to get swept.

The Stolarz injury makes things more complicated for Toronto, which is coming off its best game of the season but won’t have its No. 1 goaltender available.

I jumped on Panthers -122 last night at FanDuel and for the sake of a FanDuel Best Bet in this column, I’ll lock in Florida at -132 to win Game 2.

Hopefully, I don’t end up wishing I had bet Maple Leafs moneyline again on Wednesday night.

A FanDuel Best Bet For Tuesday Night

With a pair of games on deck in the Stanley Cup Playoffs tonight, it will be a busy day ahead breaking down the matchups in both series.

In terms of a FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll go with another builder Same Game Parlay and bank on some of the biggest names in tonight’s Game 1 between the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights to have their fair share of chances.

An SGP with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Jack Eichel to each record 2+ shots on goal pays even-money at FanDuel this morning.

McDavid and Draisaitl were a combined 12/12 for 2+ shots on goal in the first round against the Los Angeles Kings.

Eichel was 5/6 with three or more shots on goal in each of his final four games against the Minnesota Wild.

Make sure you give me a follow @Domenic_Padula on X for my full card for tonight’s NHL double-header.

Have a great day, everyone!