Morning Coffee: What are the odds Blue Jays hold off Red Sox, Yankees in AL East?

Man, it seems like summer 2025 is slipping away faster than the New York Yankees chances to win the AL East.

It’s August 6th and it feels like just yesterday that I was sweating through the first 30+ degrees Celsius day in Toronto, telling everybody I bumped into how I would give up almost anything to enjoy that kind of heat 24/7.

Now I’m stuck in the basement office every morning staring at the sun outside my window as my prep for the upcoming NFL season continues around the clock.

The only breaks are coffee refills and baseball box scores.

Episode 1 of Hard Knocks with the Buffalo Bills debuted last night – no spoilers here – and we’re less than 24 hours away from a triple-header to kick off Week 1 of the NFL pre-season.

Football is great, but it’s stressful.

I woke up this morning to 300+ messages in the fantasy football league group chat and decided to try to power through this column before opening that thread.

It’s so tempting to get sidetracked by another debate about this year’s 1.01.

Some of us have work to do.

As excited as I am that the NFL is back, Thursday night’s exhibition slate will be relegated to the second screen as we kick off Week 10 in the CFL with the potential Game of the Year 2.0 between the red-hot Hamilton Tiger-Cats and the BC Lions.

Those teams combined for 70 points in the Tiger-Cats’ 37-33 win over the Lions in Week 8 and with the total hovering around 55.5 at FanDuel all signs are pointing towards another shootout in the Hammer.

In case you missed it, our CFL betting guru Drew Morrison went a clean 4-0 with the picks in his weekly 3rd-and-1 column up on TSN.ca last week.

Make sure you set your alerts for his Week 10 preview article to be published on Thursday afternoon.

It’s that time of the year when the focus starts to shift from beach days to back to school, but before we go full football mode, it seems like the right time to set the stage for the final stretch of the MLB regular season.

The Toronto Blue Jays are the biggest surprise of 2025.

Ironically, the division rival putting the most pressure on Toronto right now happens to be another team that was considered an afterthought to contend for a playoff spot earlier this summer.

What are the odds the Blue Jays hold off the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees to win the AL East?

I’d say pretty good considering the team right behind them in the standings has been the hottest team in baseball over the past few weeks.

This is Morning Coffee for Wednesday August 6th, 2025.

What Are The Odds Blue Jays Hold Off Red Sox, Yankees In AL East?

The Blue Jays are -190 to win the AL East at FanDuel.

That number represents a 65.5 per cent implied win probability.

Not bad at all for a franchise that was 10-to-1 to win its division on MLB Opening Day and 100-to-1 to win it as recently as May 28th.

On Monday night, Toronto matched a season-high for the most hits by any team in any game this season with 25 in a 15-1 win over the Colorado Rockies.

Then last night, the Blue Jays hit a season-high five home runs in a 10-4 win over the Rockies.

Tonight, Toronto can complete a three-game series sweep in Colorado as a -210 moneyline favourite at FanDuel.

The good news is that the Blue Jays have overcome a rough patch in late July to improve to 12-7 since the MLB All-Star Break.

The bad news is that Toronto is still just three games clear of its biggest competition atop the division standings.

While the Yankees were the favourite to win the AL East for most of the year, it’s the Red Sox that have emerged as the Blue Jays biggest threat in recent weeks.

Boston extended its win streak to seven with a 6-2 win over the Kansas City Royals last night at Fenway Park.

The Red Sox improved to 22-7 since July 1st – tied with the Milwaukee Brewers for the best record in the majors over that span.

Boston to win the AL East was +850 on August 1st.

That number is down to +290 as the second choice to win the division behind Toronto at FanDuel this morning.

The Yankees, which have lost five in a row and are now 6.5 games back of the Blue Jays, are +460 as the third choice to win the AL East at FanDuel.

Yes, the Blue Jays are the favourite to win the AL East.

Still, they’ll need to overcome a few remaining obstacles to hold off the streaking Red Sox and the sleeping giant that is the Yankees in the division standings.

Perhaps the biggest concern is the toughest remaining strength of schedule of any AL East team.

Toronto’s final 47 regular season games will come against opponents with a combined .511-win percentage.

The Blue Jays will be a heavy favourite for tonight’s series finale in Colorado.

After that, they’ll be an underdog in all three games on the road against the current World Series favourite in the Los Angeles Dodgers this weekend.

Then they’ll return home from a six-game, west-coast trip to host another team that ranks among the best in baseball in the Chicago Cubs.

Those six games against the Dodgers and Cubs, combined with three games remaining against each of Boston and New York, will factor heavily into Toronto’s chances to win the division.

The Blue Jays have the seventh-most difficult remaining strength of schedule in the majors.

The Yankees have the eighth easiest remaining strength of schedule, while the Red Sox rank middle of the pack.

Prior to its offensive explosion in Colorado, Toronto had massively outperformed a +16-run differential in terms of wins and losses.

In fact, one reason the Blue Jays have been the biggest surprise of 2025 is because they’ve also been the biggest overachiever in terms of outpacing their expected wins.

Toronto outscored Colorado by 20 runs in its first two games of its current series.

Still, the club’s plus-36 run differential is the fourth-best among AL East teams.

Then there’s a pitching staff that the Blue Jays bolstered ahead of the trade deadline but remains the team’s biggest question mark.

Shane Bieber hasn’t pitched since April 2024 and is still working his way back from a 16-month rehab.

Toronto’s staff has combined for a 4.25 ERA – the eighth-worst mark in the majors.

In a division with three teams that are currently in a playoff position, the Blue Jays pitching depth will be tested down the stretch.

Hopefully, the team can stay healthy down the stretch.

Toronto is -4500 to make the playoffs at FanDuel.

That number represents a 97.8 per cent chance.

FanDuel also has the Blue Jays at a 65.5 per cent chance to win the AL East.

Nobody in this market will care about the underlying numbers if Toronto goes on to win the AL East as the biggest surprise of the 2025 season.

With six games against the Dodgers and Cubs on deck after tonight’s series finale in Colorado, the Blue Jays are about to enter a critical stretch as they try to improve their odds of holding off the Red Sox and Yankees atop the division standings.

Now, it’s time to find out what all the buzz is about in the fantasy football league group chat.

Have a great day, everyone!