Morning Coffee: What are the Oilers' odds to force Game 7 in the Stanley Cup Final?

The Oklahoma City Thunder were one of the biggest favourites in NBA Finals history.

On Monday night, they provided the justification.

Canadian Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 31 points with 10 assists, four blocks, and two steals as the Thunder cruised to a 120-109 win in Game 5 of the NBA Finals.

SGA became the first player to record at least 30 points, 10 assists, and four blocks in an NBA Finals game since blocks became an official stat back in 1974.

Jalen Williams exploded for a playoff career-high 40 points, becoming the third-youngest player to score 40 or more in an NBA Finals game over the last five decades.

With a 3-2 series lead, Oklahoma City is -1600 to win the NBA championship – a 94.1 per cent implied probability.

The Indiana Pacers are up to +900 to win the NBA title.

For perspective, the Thunder could be found at +900 to win the championship at FanDuel after the NBA Draft.

Oklahoma City is a five-point favourite for a potential title-clinching Game 6 in Indiana on Thursday night.

The Pacers are +172 to force a Game 7.

On the topic of forcing a Game 7, the focus shifts back to the Stanley Cup Final with the Florida Panthers getting an opportunity to clinch on home ice in Game 6 tonight.

The Edmonton Oilers need to go back-to-back to avoid falling to Florida in the Stanley Cup Final for the second consecutive season.

Believe it or not, the Oilers are a bigger underdog than they’ve been in any game so far in the Stanley Cup Final.

This is the Morning Coffee for Tuesday June 17th, 2025.

What Are The Odds Oilers Force A Game 7 In The Stanley Cup Final?

Picture this: It’s June of 1993, and a pair of Canadian hockey fans walk into a coffee shop and place an order for two double doubles, an apple fritter, and a dutchie.

Fantastic donut selection.

Janet Jackson’s 'That’s The Way Love Goes' is blaring over the speakers as they grab a seat close to the window. 

They had planned to see Jurassic Park that night, but the theatre was sold out, so they stopped at their favourite spot on the drive home to talk puck again.

Just a couple of weeks earlier, the Montreal Canadiens clinched the Stanley Cup for an NHL record 24th time in franchise history.

La Belle Province was still buzzing about Patrick Roy’s performance.

Roy was still just 27-years-old, and he had a bright future with the Habs.

Anyways, one thing led to another that night, and they ended up debating which province – or state – would win the most Stanley Cups over the next 32 years.

Yes, exactly 32 years.

If I was there, I could have told you why after I ordered my own apple fritter with a black coffee, but I digress.

Quebec was an obvious choice to win the most Stanley Cups over the next 3+ decades with a pair of contenders in the Canadiens and Nordiques.

Ontario was considered thanks in part to the arrival of the Ottawa Senators and the fact that the Toronto Maple Leafs would have to win the Stanley Cup, eventually.

Alberta made the list as another multi-contender province as home of the Oilers and the Calgary Flames.

South of the border, the Rangers, Islanders, and Buffalo Sabres made the state of New York as a decent option.

Then there was California, which was about to add the expansion Mighty Ducks of Anaheim to the list of state teams, which already featured the Los Angeles Kings and the San Jose Sharks.

The debate raged on for hours over coffee and donuts, the way these hypothetical hockey arguments always do.

Interestingly, the state of Florida wasn’t mentioned once.

After all, the Tampa Bay Lightning had only just arrived in the NHL at the start of the 1992-93 season.

The Florida Panthers would soon follow with the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim as an expansion team in 1993-94.

Neither the fritter man nor the dutchie dude could have predicted the Lightning and Panthers would combine for four Stanley Cup wins in the next millennium.

But here we are, 32 years later with our Morning Coffee.

And tonight, the state of Florida will get the chance to add a fifth Stanley Cup to its rapidly growing trophy case.

Thanks to the Detroit Red Wings, Michigan and Florida are currently tied for the most Stanley Cups among states since Montreal did it as the last Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup back in 1993.

It seems like the entire country – perhaps outside of the city of Calgary – has been cheering for the Oilers to end Canada’s drought in their second trip to the Stanley Cup Final in as many years.

Now the Panthers are one win away from repeating as Stanley Cup champions, dashing the hopes of a parade on Canadian soil, and potentially pushing Florida into sole possession of first place in that legendary – and exactly 32-year – Stanley Cup collection.

The Panthers are to -152 to clinch on home ice in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final at FanDuel.

Per the FanDuel traders, 55 per cent of the bets are on Florida to lift the Stanley Cup with a victory tonight.

Edmonton is up to +126 to avoid elimination – its longest odds to win any game so far in the Stanley Cup Final.

Meanwhile, the Oilers are now +310 to win both Game 6 and Game 7 to clinch their first Stanley Cup since 1990.

That number implies a 24.4 per cent probability.

So, I’m saying there’s a chance? 

Yes, in fact, FanDuel is giving Edmonton slightly better odds to win the Stanley Cup than the historical precedent for this scenario suggests.

NHL teams that go up 3-2 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have gone on to win it all 82 per cent of the time.

The Oilers will try to become just the ninth team in NHL history to rally from down 3-2 in the Stanley Cup Final to win it all and the first since the Boston Bruins in 2011.

Speaking of the 2011 Bruins, Brad Marchand will be back in the spotlight again tonight, just in a different uniform.

Marchand’s 10 goals this postseason are one shy of his single playoff career high set during Boston’s 2011 run.

14 years later, he’s registered 20 points in the postseason and is now the second choice to win the Conn Smythe Trophy at +410 at FanDuel.

Sam Bennett remains the favourite at -160.

Yes, the same Sam Bennett that has emerged as public enemy No. 1 at every coffee shop in Canada while leading all scorers with 15 goals in these Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Bennett, who has registered five goals through the first five games of the Stanley Cup Final, is +180 to score again in tonight’s potential series-clinching Game 6.

Count me among those that already bet Bennett anytime goal at +190 along with a FanDuel Same Game Parlay with Bennett 1+ point and 2+ shots on goal at -104.

The anytime goal prop is 4-for-5 in the Stanley Cup Final.

The builder SGP is 5-for-5 so far in the series.

Meanwhile, the Sergei Bobrovsky saves prop was 4-for-4 to the over in the Stanley Cup Final prior to Game 5, when he needed to make only 19 saves in a 5-2 win.

I expect the Oilers to bounce back with a much better effort in a must-win game tonight, so I bet Bobrovsky to record 27+ saves tonight with the hope he can make the over 5-for-6 in the Stanley Cup Final.

I’m also back on Corey Perry 2+ shots on goal at -122.

He’s registered two or more shots on goal in all five games in the Stanley Cup Final.

Let’s hope he extends that streak in a must-win tonight.

As for a FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll go with a builder SGP that features Evan Bouchard 3+ shots on goal and Bennett 2+ shots on goal at -112.

This exact combination is 5-for-5 so far in the Stanley Cup Final – so hopefully they can keep it going tonight.

I thought about adding McDavid 2+ shots on goal to this SGP, which is 21-for-21 so far in these Stanley Cup Playoffs, and I will do exactly that on a separate bet.

As for the FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll stick with the -112 SGP with Bouchard 3+ and Bennett 2+ for Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final.

Hopefully for Oilers Nation – and hockey fans everywhere outside of the state of Florida – Edmonton can pull off the upset and give us a Game 7.

Apple fritter time.

Have a great day, everyone!