Morning Coffee: Will the Blue Jays go all in at the MLB Trade Deadline?

Right now, it’s the most important question on my mind.

How many coffees do I need to survive the next 24 hours?

FanDuel’s got the over/under at 6.5.

That number is already heavily juiced to the over as I start down this post-vacation back-to-work apocalypse.

Don’t ask me if I want a tall cup, either.

This is Venti country for this man.

Picture the montage of Rocky Balboa chugging raw eggs in Rocky II, only for me it’s one long shot of espresso after another this morning.

If you’re wondering what I’m talking about, it’s my first morning back after a much-needed staycation to address everything I’ll need to have in place before I officially flip the switch to “black eye” mode.

Shout out to my guy Luke Bellus for holding it down.

The “black eye” is the Dan Campbell special - a venti coffee with two additional shots of espresso in it.

It’s also the Dom Padula special when it gets to that time of year when I need to lock in for a seven-month grind that will take us all the way through the Super Bowl.

That epic stretch features the NFL, NHL, and NBA season starts, the US Open, Tour Championship, the World Series, Grey Cup, and MLS Cup.

The calm before the storm just so happens to be one of my favourite times of the year.

As a kid I would hang by the pool all summer cycling through one NFL preview magazine after another soaking in everything I needed to know before back to school.

I remember when September would roll around and I would hide the magazines in my history textbook and read about the New England Patriots dynasties in the early 2000’s while the rest of the class learned about Canadian history.

Who would have thought back then that I’d eventually find a career that required knowing more about Brady and Belichick than Alexander Mackenzie and Pierre Elliott Trudeau?

Anyways, the sunshine is out this morning, and we still have at least one more month of warm weather to enjoy in this country before September rolls around.

NFL training camps are already well underway.

The Pro Football Hall of Fame Game goes Thursday.

My plan is to launch a wide range of NFL futures content beginning later this week.

I hope you can join us as FanDuel and the TSN Betting team count down to the 2025 NFL season.

The launch of our season preview content will signal the load road ahead to Super Bowl 60 in California.

We’ll need a lot more coffee between now and then.

In the meantime, it’s July 28th and the Toronto Blue Jays have the best record in all of baseball.

I thought some of you promised me that regression was inevitable and this team would eventually hit a wall?

It turns out that hasn’t happened yet.

With the MLB trade deadline on deck this week, all eyes will be on the Blue Jays as we wait to find out if they’ll go all in to compete for a World Series this fall.

You can count me among the group that thinks they should.

This is Morning Coffee for Monday July 28th, 2025.

Will The Blue Jays Go All-In At The MLB Trade Deadline?

So, I woke up this morning, checked the standings, and found the Blue Jays sitting at 63-45.

It’s the best record in all of baseball.

Pretty good for a team that had the longest odds to win its own division ahead of MLB Opening Day.

At the start of the season, Toronto was +198 to make the playoffs at FanDuel.

That number represented just a 33.6 per cent implied probability they’d reach the postseason.

Now the Blue Jays are considered such a lock to make the playoffs that you can’t even find betting odds for that market at FanDuel this morning.

How much has the perception of this team changed since MLB Opening Day?

Toronto was 10-to-1 as the fifth to win the AL East at FanDuel back in March.

The Blue Jays are now the obvious favourite at -270 – a 73 per cent implied probability.

Aaron Judge is banged up.

Toronto has dominated the head-to-head series with the New York Yankees.

Plus, the Blue Jays are now 5.5 games up on New York for the best record in the division.

Toronto’s regular season win total was set at over/under 79.5 at FanDuel.

It’s July 28th and the Blue Jays are 17 wins away from clinching the over with an adjusted regular season win total at 93.5.

Toronto is -500 to win 90+ regular season games and +880 to win 100+ regular season games.

The Blue Jays are +750 as the third choice to finish with the best regular season record in the majors behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs.

Also, could somebody please put into context how special was Shohei Ohtani is doing for the Dodgers is?

My goodness.

Anyways, only seven teams had longer odds to win the World Series than Toronto at 65-to-1 on Opening Day.

This morning, only six teams have shorter odds to win it all than the Blue Jays at 13-to-1.

Interestingly, the top three choices to win the World Series are all National League teams in the Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, and the New York Mets.

Only two AL teams – the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees – have shorter odds to win the World Series than Toronto at FanDuel this morning.

Is that the signal the Blue Jays need to go all-in at the MLB trade deadline?

When I spoke to our TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips a couple of weeks ago, he convinced me a wide-open AL is among the biggest reasons Toronto should go for it.

If the Blue Jays could upgrade their starting rotation and perhaps even add a little depth, it could be enough for them to emerge as the AL pennant favourite.

Which players should Toronto target ahead of Thursday’s MLB trade deadline?

The Blue Jays starting rotation ranks 24th in the majors with a 4.39 ERA.

Could they upgrade their rotation between now and Thursday’s deadline?

FanDuel has a special novelty market with odds for a long list of players to be a Blue Jay after the trade deadline.

The top two choices are both starting pitchers.

Pittsburgh Pirates starter Mitch Keller, who has registered a career-best 3.53 ERA in 21 starts this season, is +105 to be a Blue Jay after the trade deadline as the favourite.

Arizona Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly, who has posted a 2.56 ERA over his last 10 starts and owns a sparkling 2.25 ERA in four career postseason starts, is +170 as the second choice to be a Blue Jay after this week’s trade deadline.

Fellow Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen and Miami Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara are also both shorter than 4-to-1 to be a Blue Jay after the deadline.

Could Toronto add one or more arms to its rotation?

The Blue Jays have exceeded all expectations with the best record in baseball.

Now they have an opportunity to upgrade their biggest weakness and solidify their status as a legitimate World Series contender.

The Blue Jays aren’t just exceeding expectations – they’re putting the rest of the American League on notice.

Now all eyes are on Canada’s baseball team to see what they do ahead of this week’s MLB trade deadline.