Bellus Betting Breakdown: Who is going to win the NFC South?

Times of uncertainty and new beginnings have arrived in the NFC South. 

After gracing the division with his presence for three years, Tom Brady is no longer a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, leaving the NFC South wide open. 

Enter the Atlanta Falcons, now in year three under head coach Arthur Smith. 

Smith arrived in Atlanta in 2021, taking over a Falcons team that finished with a losing record (4-12) for the third-straight year.

Now this Falcons team is ready to start winning again.

Let’s look at a few reasons why I like the Falcons to win the NFC South. 

Here comes the money 

The 2022 Falcons never stood a chance. Not only did they trade away veteran quarterback Matt Ryan, but the trade came with a $40 million dead cap hit for last year. 

Ryan’s dead cap number was only half of it and 42 per cent of Atlanta’s salary cap was dead money. 

Ryan’s massive number comes off the books this year, as does $10 million from former star receiver Julio Jones, dropping the Falcons from highest in dead cap hit to 18th.

All that dead money disappearing meant the Falcons had money to spend. One of the Falcons' big signings of the off-season was safety Jessie Bates III, while the team also added to the defence by bringing in Bud Dupree and Calais Campbell. 

Some of that extra money also made its way to to the O-line, a unit that is one of the best this team has to offer. 

Last season, only the Rams, Titans, Bears and Cardinals spent less on their offences than Atlanta. 

This year the Falcons sit at 13th in offensive spending and 12th on defence. 

One-score games 

Despite the lack of funds put into the roster, this Falcons team was very competitive in 2022.

Thirteen of their 17 games were decided by one score. Atlanta went just 5-8 in those close calls. 

Eight of the 13 games came down to a field goal or less, with the Falcons finishing them 4-4.

And the way they lost games was mind-boggling. 

Week 1: They’re a 3rd-and-1 conversion away from opening the season 1-0 before quarterback Marcus Mariota (more on him later) fumbles a snap. Five plays later Will Lutz kicks a 51-yard field to help the Saints win the game 27-26. 

Week 2: The Falcons are up six with the ball on the Rams’ 24-yard line and only 1:18 on the clock… and Mariota throws an interception. Fast forward 1:06, and Brandon Powell scores a 24-yard touchdown with 12 seconds left to give Los Angeles a 31-27 lead. 

A 2-0 start gone, just like that 0-2.

Week 5: A comeback attempt against the Bucs fell short when an imaginary roughing-the-passer penalty extended a Brady drive. Instead of punting, Brady got a free set of downs, and Atlanta didn’t touch the ball again as Tampa Bay went on to win the game.

I won’t list every game, but you get my point.

Last year they couldn’t catch a break. In 2021, they went 7-2 in one-score games. Different story, huh?

Did Smith suddenly forget how to coach in tight games? I don’t think so. 

Success for any NFL head coach is limited when your most important player doesn't reach expectations. And in this league, there is not a more important player than your quarterback.

Quarterback play 

It’s later. 

Mariota, I like the guy. He seems very nice. But his days as a starting quarterback in this league are over. 

Out of 47 qualifying QBs, Marcus Mariota ranked 45th in accuracy in 2022.

As a team, the Falcons were the least accurate passing offence in the league. And yet, they were still able to run the ball. 

Here is a compression of the Falcons’ run game from 2021 to 2022 from Warren Sharp’s NFL Season Preview:

They saw the same amount of 7+ man boxes in 2022 than they did in 2021, and the run game was still able to improve in all of these areas:

Expected Points Per Rush 

Success Rate 

Yards Per Carry 

Yards Before Contact 

If Desmond Ridder can provide just league-average quarterback play, this offence could reach new heights.

Playmakers like Kyle Pitts and Drake London need the ball in their hands more to impact the game.

According to Sharp, Pitts was still sixth among all tight ends in yards per route run (1.72 yards). However, his 20.7 routes per game was just 28th at the position. 

The more this offence can move the ball through the air, the more it’ll open up holes for a stellar run game that added a brand new toy at the draft. 

The impact from No. 8 overall pick Bijan Robinson should give this team a jolt of energy right from Week 1. 

I’m curious to see how Atlanta utilizes him and Tyler Allgeier, who set the franchise's rookie rushing record in 2022 (210 carries for 1,035 yards).

NFC South

Finally, we need to talk about the NFC South. 

It’s probably the worst division in football. 

The Bucs were a terrible division-winning playoff team last year. With Brady gone, they’ve lost their identity and begin a transition period. 

Meanwhile, Carolina had an interesting off-season. Forget everything you know about last year’s Panthers because they’re gone. New head coach, new OC, new quarterback, new featured running back, new WR1, new tight end. 

I think a tandem of Frank Reich and Bryce Young can work. But I assume it’ll take some time. Reich hasn’t worked with a starting quarterback this young since he was a quarterbacks coach in Philadelphia with Carson Wentz. Wentz struggled as a rookie, but things clicked in year two before a knee injury derailed his career.

Carolina has certainly given Young a chance for success. Their additions of Miles Sanders, Adam Thielen and Hayden Hurst give this offence a professional feeling. And I think by year’s end it’ll look better than their record indicates. But I don’t expect them to contend to win this division. 

Finally, the New Orleans Saints. 

This division is a two-horse race in my opinion, so I’ve decided to take the team with longer odds and a stable run game. 

But New Orleans is intriguing, and their quarterback is a big reason why. Derek Carr takes over an offence that features Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Juwan Johnson. 

Kamara will miss the first three games of the season, but everyone’s favourite former Detroit Lion, Jamaal Williams, will fill that void before settling into his role in Week 4. 

The passing game features three weapons. Olave balled out as a rookie, catching passes from Andy Dalton. That says more about him than you think. 

Thomas is a big question mark, but if he’s able to stay healthy (he’s played 10 games since 2020) he provides a great threat on the other side of the field. 

And up the middle will be Johnson – someone I believe Carr will take a liking to, and fast. 

Johnson is a 6-foot-4, 231-pound pass catcher who was athletic enough to play wide receiver in college but switched to tight end in the NFL. 

Carr’s previous tight end in Las Vegas, Darren Waller, is also a 6-foot-6, 238-pound pass catcher who was athletic enough to play wide receiver in college but switched to tight end at the NFL. 

The connection between Carr and Waller at times was amongst the best in the league. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Johnson had a big impact on the success of this passing game. 

Why Atlanta over New Orleans? 

I think the Saints look good on paper, but I worry about their ability to survive 17 games. 

Injuries are bound to happen, and some guys seem more likely to have them than others. 

Adding Williams to the backfield is nice, but I don’t know how much it really helps the run game. 

And while Carr is good and has the weapons, we just saw him struggle last year with a new offensive coordinator in Vegas, and now he’s in a new system again.

The defence is solid, which always seems to be the case in New Orleans. And while the Saints are favourites to win the NFC South, I’ll ride with the Falcons. 

I like what Smith is doing in Atlanta and this is the year he gets some more success.