Open Championship weather update and longshots

We’re under 24 hours away from the 2025 Open Championship teeing off at Royal Portrush Golf Club in Northern Ireland. 

The last time we met to discuss golf was the U.S. Open, with Viktor Hovland finishing solo third as our best finish in the outright market. 

Before I get to my card this week, let’s go over some storylines that have caught my eye, but first a look at the weather. 

I’M NO WEATHERMAN, BUT… 

After taking a look at the Portrush tower on Windfinder, located just a few minutes from the golf course, it appears the best time to be on the golf course in the early round will be Friday afternoon. 

As of Wednesday morning it seems it’ll be windy throughout all of Thursday, with wet conditions expected in the afternoon. Followed by steady wind Friday morning before tailing off into the evening. 

This can change at almost any point, but for now, I would lean towards a player with a morning tee time on Thursday and an afternoon tee time on Friday. 

With that in mind, here is a look at the 10 best players in the three majors this season, and what wave they are in. 

It looks like Rory McIlroy has drawn the short end of the stick with the draw this year at the Open Championship. While the weather appears to favour the AM/PM tee times, there will still be a number of players to make the cut from the bad side. Some other notable players with a PM/AM tee time are Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, and Ludvig Aberg.

LONGSHOTS 
Sure, one of the big names is probably going to win this week, and yes I have bet on a few of them (as you’ll see at the end).

But if J.J. Spaun can win the U.S. Open, maybe one of the four long shots I have circled can win the Open Championship too.

Ben Griffin +9000

If his name weren’t Ben Griffin, his odds of winning this event would be cut in half.

This year has been a breakout season for Griffin, with two wins and five other top 10 finishes this year.

Griffin’s last top 10 came at Oakmont with a T10 in his first U.S. Open. Now he heads to Royal Portrush for the first Open Championship of his career too.

He enters this week on the heels of his first missed cut since May, despite gaining over 3.7 strokes tee to green.

As long as Griffin cleans up the putter, something he has done in both majors he’s played in this year, I like him to be in the mix on Sunday.

Hideki Matsuyama +9000

My pitch for Hideki is pretty simple. At 90-1 I click and don’t ask questions.

At 90-1, it shouldn’t be shocking to say that Matsuyama hasn’t been playing his best golf lately.

It’s been over six months since his last top 10, but that top 10 happened to be a win in Hawaii to start the season at The Sentry.

Hideki has made the cut in two of three majors this year, and his iron play suggests he might be ready to contend again.

Matsuyama has gained over six shots on approach five times this season and twice in his last three starts.

While the iron plays appear to be elite, it’s the driver holding him back this year. Entering the week, Matsuyama sits outside the top 90 in both driving accuracy and distance this year, and is 151st in Total Driving.

However, with a player sporting his skillset, I’ll roll the dice at 90-1 that he keeps his tee shots on the planet this week and gives his irons a chance to contend on Sunday.

Keegan Bradley +10000

American Ryder Cup Keegan Bradley is running out of opportunities to secure points for an automatic bid on the team.

Keegan’s Open Championship history leaves a lot to be desired as he’s missed the cut in five straight.

His best finish at an Open came in 2016 with a tie for 16th at Royal Troon.

Still, Bradley enters the week just two starts removed from a win and has a top 10 in three of his five events.

Tom McKibbin +15000 

Finally, Tom McKibbin is flying under the radar, entering the biggest week of his young career. 

McKibbin, similar to McIlroy grew up not far from Royal Portrush and has likely had this event circled on his calendar for a long time. 

McKibbin was a standout on the DP World Tour in 2024 before accepting an invite to join LIV Golf. 

If he were playing on the PGA Tour this season, my guess is his name would be in the Ryder Cup conversation. Instead, he sits on the outside looking in. 

Still, young Tom has the skill and has proven in previous DPWT events that he can contend with the big names, most recently tying for sixth at the Dubai Desert Classic and in March tying for third in another DPWT event.

Over his last 29 starts on the DPWT, McKibbin has 11 top 10s and enters this week fresh off of back-to-back Top 10s on the LIV Golf Tour. 

THE CARD