Bellus’ Betting Breakdown: PGA Championship narratives, theories and bets

The 2025 PGA Championship is here and there’s a lot to sort out. 

Earlier this week, Bob Weeks gave you his weekly Pick Six, and earlier today I spotlighted a few storylines to monitor on the bigger names in the field. 

But this evening I want to get weird. All this golf research takes me down rabbit hole after rabbit hole and I need an outlet to share those thoughts and theories, so let’s do just that. 

I’m coming into this week with some extra juice after cashing Sepp Straka +4500 at last week’s Truist Championship, so let’s try to make it back-to-back. 

Before I get to my card, let me float a few things your way. 

It’s starting to feel like Bay Hill? 

The weather early in the week has been a big story for this PGA Championship. 

Heavy amounts of rain have drenched the Charlotte area, keeping players off the course on Monday and delaying their prep on Tuesday. 

While the heavy rain is expected to soften up the fairways and make the course play even longer, it seems like the greens should be in good shape. 

According to people with boots on ground, thanks to the SubAir and new greens, the green surfaces are still quite firm. 

This is where my Bay Hill comp comes in to play. 

Hear me out, because I’ve been looking high and low for someone to make this course comparison this week but nobody has, so I guess I’ll be the one to do it.

Do you remember what Scottie Scheffler said after his opening round at Bay Hill this year? 

Because I do. 

“The fairways are soft but the greens are like concrete. So it can be very challenging to get the ball close to the hole, especially if you’re coming out of the rough.” 

Bay Hill played tough this year, largely due to high winds but also because of the challenges Scheffler described. 

So let’s take a look at the Bay Hill leaders in SG: Approach, as those guys would’ve had a good week with their irons, despite the soft fairways and firm greens. 

Hello Viktor Hovland. The 27-year-old has been up and down this year and despite gaining over four strokes on approach at Bay Hill, he managed to miss the cut. Still, he has already won this year and has finished on the podium at back to back PGA Championships. At his current price of +5000  I think he is a very intriguing option to win this week. 

Collin Morikawa also appears on the list as the American probably should’ve won at Bay Hill this year it weren’t for Russell Henley chipping in late on Sunday to steal the event. 

Morikawa has won a PGA Championship before, finished T4 in this event last year and tied for 16th at Quail Hollow during the course' Tour stop last year. 

His floor in events like this feels high and his +100 price to Top 20 feels like a good one to me. 

MacIntrye a Model Darling 

I have talked about my golf model at length on this website so I won’t give you the full rundown. 

Last week Sepp Straka stood on my models, and this this week it’s Robert MacIntrye grading higher than I expected. 

The lefty enters this week 12th in the field in Weighted Strokes Gained: Total, and this year on Tour he ranks 18th in greens in regulation percentage, ninth in SG: Off the Tee, and 22nd in approach putt performance. 

MacIntrye doesn’t exactly fit the mold of the type of bomber golfer most people are targeting this week, but neither was Straka last week on a course we all thought a bomber would win on too. 

The 28-year-old comes into the week with some poor form, having missed the cut at The Masters and following it up with three straight finishes outside the top 30, so this might be a good time to buy low on Bob. 

Last year he finished T8 in the PGA Championship and I like seeing that he gained over 2.5 strokes on approach while finishing T11 at Bay Hill this year. 

At 75-1 I will take a flyer on him in the outright market and will also play him +240 to Top 20. 

Here is a look at the top 10 players on my model for this week. 

Keegan Bradley is the Ryder Cup captain this year so it makes sense that during the week of the PGA Championship he would get 20+ American golfers in a room together to chat. 

Bradley invited the top 20 golfers on the points list and added an invite for Brooks Koepka in 91st. 

That means Patrick Reed at 25th was left off the shortlist despite finishing solo third at the Masters last month. 

Reed has enjoyed his time at Quail Hollow in the past and has three top 10 finishes in his last four starts at this course, including a T2 at the PGA Championship in 2017. 

Two years ago it was Koepka that played his way onto the Ryder Cup team with a tie for second at the Masters followed by winning the PGA Championship, why can’t Reed do the same in 2025? 

I have found a new golfer and his name is Johnny Keefer 

Majors are awesome because you never know who you’ll meet. 

This week while looking at the bottom of my model results I was interested in the name Johnny Keefer. 

Keefer plays on the Korn Ferry Tour and doesn’t log progress in a few of the stats I look at on the model, so the space is left blank and he grades out 0 in those areas. 

However, he ranks 12th in birdie or better percentage, so that caught my eye. 

Looking at the profile, I’m interested. 

Keefer is ninth in Total Diving, 22nd in GIR %, sixth in scrambling , 26th in putting average and won just two starts ago on the KFT. 

The 24-year-old has made one start on the PGA Tour, finishing T13 at the 2024 Procore Championship (a week where I cashed Patton Kizzire 170-1 outright nbd). 

Over his last 36 rounds, Keefer has gained four or more strokes on the field in 22.22 per cent of his rounds, showing that he has single-round upside albeit on the Korn Ferry Tour. 

So with that in mind, I’ll take a flyer on him at +500 to finish inside the Top 20 of the first round. 

And I’ll keep an eye on him this week as he plays the first major of his career. 

THE LADDER CHALLANGE TO END ALL LADDER CHALLENGE’S 

“What if we ladder him to win three majors?” 

That question was met with laughter by my good pal Jordan Henry on a phone call Tuesday the week of the Masters. 

And then it was met with the pause. 

“Well, what are the odds.” 

And thus began a search that led Mr. Henry and are to our *first ever collab post* on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, in what was maybe the dumbest and best idea we’ve had. 

We all knew the weight that Rory was carrying with him having not won a major in 10 years and needing a Green Jacket to complete the career grand slam. What if he won the Masters and went on a heater? 

He was +650 to win that week, +1200 to win multiple majors in 2025 and 100-1 to win three or more. 

And then he won a Green Jacket. And now all everyone wants to talk about is the floodgate situation we might be dealing with.

Rory’s history at Quail Hollow is about as good as anyone could ask for. The 36-year-old has four wins in his 13 starts on the property, including his most recent start when he won the Truist Championship in 2024. 

Outside of the wins, McIlroy has five other top 10 finishes and has only missed the cut once at this course. 

I would be interested in him at +450 to win this week, but fortunately myself and Jordan already have a ticket with him at 12-1, and you could too if you followed me on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. 

THE CARD 

Now that it’s been 1500 words, Here are my bets for the week. 

Outright 

R. McIlroy 12-1*

B. Koepka 40 

H. Matsuyama 48-1

T. Hatton 50-1 

V. Hovland 50-1

R. MacIntrye 75-1 

P. Reed 90-1

Placements:  

Top 5

C. Morikawa +360

H. Matsuyama +650 

Cameron Young +2100

Top 10

J. Thomas +170 

P. Reed +200 

Top 20

T. Hatton +135 

S. Straka +170 

R.MacIntrye +240 

First Round Top 20

R. Hoey +430

J. Keefer +500