Setting The Pick – Championship odds shuffle up

If the semifinals of the NBA playoffs weren’t chaotic enough, fans got the ultimate plot twist Monday night.  

The defending champion, Boston Celtics, didn’t just lose a critical Game 4, their championship window might’ve completely closed beyond this season.  

Franchise superstar, Jayson Tatum, went down in significant pain and was carried off the court, leaving through the tunnel in a wheelchair.  

While it’s irresponsible to speculate until official MRI results are published, the Celtics are clearly more concerned with him than this series.  

ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that Boston “have been expecting a severe injury for Tatum.” 

They have one day to recover before suiting up for an elimination game on home court Wednesday.  

With Monday’s result in Madison Square Garden, the New York Knicks have emerged as the favourites to win the East after holding the second-worst odds to win the chip at the start of Round 2.  

Here’s how the championship odds have shifted overnight:  

New York +1800 to +500 

Boston +200 to +2600 

Minnesota +900 to +600 

Golden State +7000 to +16000 

The Knicks opened their series as +590 underdogs to advance and now sit at -620.  

They are currently destined for a collision course with the Indiana Pacers, a team they share a rich playoff history with capped by a second-round battle last year. 

As it stands, three teams are one game away from Cabo.  

Let’s go through the futures market on FanDuel given all of this movement.  

Bing Bong Bockers?  

The New York Knickerbockers are the betting favourites to come out of the East.  

In a year where the Toronto Maple Leafs sit two wins away from the Conference Finals, it truly feels like apocalyptic times.  

The Blue and White haven’t won the Stanley Cup since 1967. The Knicks last won in 1973.  

Even though the odds heavily favour them advancing to the Conference Finals, it’s fair to question their superiority over either Indiana or Cleveland.  

For starters, it’s not wrong to say Boston is losing their semifinals matchup more than New York is winning it.  

The Knicks have only held a lead of five or more points for less than six minutes out of 197 total.  

Boston opened the series by blowing back-to-back 20 point leads in Games 1 and 2 while leading the Knicks by five or more points for the majority of the first three quarters in Game 4.  

The Celtics have shot 33.5 percent from deep after going 36.8 during the regular-season (10th-best).  

Then you go one series back, and it’s hard to forget how much they struggled with the Cinderella Pistons, a team that was arguably just happy to be in the mix.  

New York has a -1.1 net rating in the playoffs even though they’ve gone 7-3.  

Cleveland is about to get eliminated and they sit at +14.5.  

Indiana is at +5.1. 

Knicks to win the chip isn’t the direction I’d be going at the moment, priced at +500 on FanDuel.  

The Indiana Overrated Pacers 

At the end of April, The Athletic released their annual NBA player poll that showed Tyrese Haliburton was voted the most overrated NBA player, according to his peers. 

Damning news if you’re one with thin skin.  

But when asked about the poll, Haliburton took the high road, saying he “must be doing something right”.  

Since that day, the Pacers have gone 5-2 and stand one game away from a repeat appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals.  

Clearly, he wasn’t phased.  

So, what’s been the secret sauce for them in a series against the top-seeded Cavaliers? 

Hali and the Pacers’ ball movement has relentlessly helped them generate excellent shot quality getting buckets at the rim or wide-open looks from deep.  

Cleveland’s defence has not been able to keep up resulting in Indy shooting a blistering 41.9 percent from three – 4.6 more than the next closest team (Minnesota).  

They’ve also been consistently scoring at the rim, ranking second in the semis at 48.5 points in the paint per game.  

That’s a dangerous recipe for New York, a team with one of the weakest rim protectors of the remaining eight.  

During the regular season, New York allowed the 7th-highest frequency of shots at the rim.  

The oddsmakers at FanDuel seem to hold a low opinion of Indiana and that’s worked out for bettors backing them.  

The Pacers have been more than a one possession dog in six of their nine playoff games.  

They won four of those outright.  

I think the Pacers at +210 to win the East is great value.  

The Joker Lives 

Denver is the only underdog remaining that’s not facing elimination just yet.  

Game 5 is set for tonight and while Oklahoma City are 10-point favourites on FanDuel, the Nuggets have proven they’re underpriced against the spread.  

They won Games 1 and 3 closing as 10.5-point and 6-point dogs.  

They covered the 6.5-point spread in Sunday’s loss to the Thunder.  

As good as OKC’s been at stomping on teams when they’re down, the Nuggets keep finding ways to keep games close.  

They say in the playoffs; depth matters less than the regular season.  

If you believe in that theory, Denver arguably has the best closing five unit should they advance to the Western Conference Finals.  

Boston and OKC have long been the standalone favourites to win the title.  

But with the Celtics on the ropes and Denver in range of eliminating the Thunder, do we not consider Nikola Jokic and company the most lethal remaining team?  

They have the best player in the world and the championship pedigree.  

Sitting at +1600 to win it all, I see that number as good value with a best-of-3 left between them and OKC.