Setting The Pick – Conference Finals Betting Adjustments

Betting on Game 1s is always a mystery.

Sometimes, past matchup data or recent game logs can help make predictions, but ultimately, it’s impossible to know exactly what changes are being planned in the locker room.

Now that we’ve seen all four teams take the court, we can break down their adjustments and assess what they’re compromising on both ends.

The NBA is all about matchups, and over a seven-game series, coaches will constantly make tweaks to gain an edge.

Here are some first impressions that could be acted on from a betting perspective.

Celtics want to tire Tyrese Haliburton on defence

Haliburton is undoubtedly the engine of Indiana’s high-octane offence, so it’s no surprise that Boston is trying to wear him down on defence.

The All-NBA third team guard has primarily been responsible for defending Jrue Holiday and it’s no coincidence that Boston’s point guard is having his best two-game stretch of the postseason.

Holiday’s 28-point performance in Game 1 was a playoff-high and both his 8 and 10 assist performances this series has surpassed any other game over the first two rounds.

Of the 43 points Holiday has scored over these first two games, Haliburton was the primary defender for half of them.

Holiday weighs 205 pounds, 20 more than Haliburton, and he’s been exploiting that size advantage around the basket.

All nine of Holiday’s two-pointers have come in the paint; he’s been effective creating space for himself against Haliburton to get easy looks.

It’s a bonus that Holiday is also shooting 58 per cent from deep in this series, but regardless of that efficiency, Boston is still going to hunt Haliburton on the defensive end.

The Play – Holiday over points + rebounds + assists combo

Pacers can’t get to the rim

Indiana took the third-most shots at the rim this year, while Boston allowed the third fewest.

So far in this series, the Celtics are winning that battle and doing it without Kristaps Porzingis.

On average, the Pacers took 35.5 per cent of their shots at the rim in the regular season, that mark is down to 25.0 per cent through two games (which would rank last in the NBA).

Indiana is getting fewer looks in transition and having trouble breaking down defenders off the dribble.

TJ McConnell is coming off a fantastic series versus New York and was arguably their third-best player at times.

The difference between that series and this one – Boston has two All-NBA defenders in Holiday and Derrick White.

Against the Knicks, McConnell scored a whopping 75 per cent of his points in the paint.

So far in this series, that’s dropped down to 60 per cent.

It’s no surprise that the majority of his buckets have come against Boston’s second-unit players.

He’s scored 16 of his 22 points with Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser or Luke Kornet as his defender.

If Haliburton does end up missing time, McConnell will see more of Boston’s All-Defensive Team stoppers.

Even if Haliburton plays, I expect Boston to be more focused on limiting McConnell’s impact around the rim.

The Play – TJ McConnell under points + assists combo

Kyrie Irving intentional with his scoring

Over the first two rounds, Irving had been noticeably passive to start games often deferring to Luka Doncic to initiate the offence.

He scored just 10 total first-quarter points across six games versus the LA Clippers and tallied nine points against OKC.

In Game 1 of the Conference Finals, he dropped 13 points in the opening quarter.

Considering that Minnesota is their toughest defensive opponent thus far, this seems to be a directive given by the coaching staff to have Irving hunt his own shot.

Ahead of this series, Anthony Edwards commented that he was ready for the challenge of defending Kyrie.

Irving admitted that he used those words as motivation; it likely contributed to his outburst.

To Ant-Man’s credit, Irving only scored eight of his 30 points with Edwards as his primary defender.

But the gameplan seems clear, Irving knows he can’t rely on lobs or outlets to the corner for their offence this series.

To drop 30 points without a three-pointer is quite an impressive feat.

He was incredibly effective blowing by defenders, scoring 20 points in the paint.

With Rudy Gobert dropping back and favouring the lob threat of Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II, Irving should continue to have more opportunities to hit open floaters.

The Play – Irving over points

Timberwolves selling out on lobs

A core part of the Mavericks’ offence is having two lob threats on the court for 48 minutes.

Doncic and Irving are two of the very best pick-and-roll players and live off of lob assists.

While Ivica Zubac and Chet Holmgren are two great defensive centres, they aren’t on the same level as Minnesota’s four-time Defensive Player of the Year.

Gobert deserves respect for covering space better than people give him credit for.

But there’s no denying what their defensive strategy is with him on the court, they sit back in drop coverage and force ball-handlers to make shots away from the rim.

During Game 1, Dallas only connected on two alley-oops off Doncic or Irving.

Only six of their combined assists came off of dunks.

Even though it came in a losing effort, the Wolves seemed content having Doncic and Irving beat them in the mid-range versus giving up buckets at the rim.

Considering how poorly Dallas shot from deep (6-of-25), I expect Minnesota to sit back even more and dare their dynamic duo to beat them outside.

The Play – Gafford and Lively Jr. under points