Setting The Pick – NBA Finals Game 4 best bets

The 2025 Indiana Pacers are officially the team of destiny.  

Their Game 3 win on Wednesday put them at nine wins as underdogs this postseason.  

They walked into Oklahoma City with +530 odds to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy and have shortened to +190 on FanDuel.  

How many wins will it take before they finally get the respect they deserve?  

At this point, we might run out of games.  

As it’s been all series and postseason, Indiana showed up again in the fourth quarter.  

They closed out Wednesday’s game 32-18.  

They’ve won all three fourth quarters (even in their Game 2 loss).  

They own a 9-1 record in games requiring clutch time.  

OKC on the other hand continues to struggle on the road dropping to 0-8 against the spread this postseason.  

This road game might be the highest pressure one for them; their season is essentially on the line. 

They were down 2-1 in Denver but squeaked out a 92-87 win in one of the worst shooting performances by two teams in this year’s playoffs.  

Expect tensions to be high in Gainbridge Fieldhouse tonight.  

With all that in mind, here are three bets I’m looking at ahead of Game 4.  

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 33.5 points (-122) 

I’m biased in my belief that SGA is the best scorer in the NBA.  

If OKC has any chance at winning this series, heroics will be required from him to even things up.  

This Thunder team gets beat when the other four guys can’t get their offence going.  

In their highest-pressure game of the year, I expect SGA to play with the most composure. 

While the 33.5 line is inflated, I think it fairly reflects the responsibility on his shoulders.  

Indiana has shown him a bunch of different defensive looks, and I expect head coach, Mark Daigneault, to scheme things up designing plays where he’s not the primary ball-handler each possession. 

The Pacers don’t have a single individual defender who’s All-NBA worthy to stay in front of him.  

They’re collapsing multiple defenders and forcing SGA into shots outside his comfort zone.  

The thing is, he’s a very cerebral player and isn’t confined to specific shots. 

With a Game 4 refereeing crew that rates above-average in foul calling, the stars line up for SGA to put pressure on an Indy defence that’s in the bottom-half of playoff teams this year.  

What makes a superstar is their ability to shine when their team needs him most.  

Buy the dip with SGA coming off his worst game of the Finals. 

Alex Caruso over 16.5 points + rebounds + assists (-114) 

It wasn’t exactly a great look for Caruso giving up that inbounds pass in the fourth to TJ McConnell; arguably the turning point of the game.  

It’s also a bad look on him being a team-worst minus-15 in Game 3.  

But to me, Caruso’s the fourth-most important player on this team and his minutes are slowly reflecting that.  

The former champ is now at 29.0 mpg in the Finals, his highest clip of all four series.  

Given Indiana’s personnel and desired style of play, Caruso’s versatility on defence is a critical x-factor for OKC.  

The Thunder made a rather bold choice to open the Finals swapping out Cason Wallace for Isaiah Hartenstein in the starting five, a questionable move considering the success they enjoyed through the first three rounds.  

The move was meant to pre-emptively match up with Indy’s strengths and limit their transition offence.  

While they’ve been successful at that, Wallace himself has been disappointing.  

On several possessions, the Pacers have hunted him on mismatches in the post.  

He’s also been left wide open beyond the arc and been a hole in OKC’s offence.  

Wallace has missed all six of his three-pointers and sits at 5.7 ppg.  

Caruso on the other hand has shown more ability to defend both in the post and on the wings.  

His defence versus Nikola Jokic in Game 7 of the semis was arguably a series-winning adjustment.  

With only so many games left; now’s the time to start playing the guys you trust most.  

What also needs to be factored is Caruso’s 50.0 percent shooting from three in the Finals.  

He’s been OKC’s best shooter from deep the entire playoffs, hitting 34 threes on a 43.0 percent clip.  

This bet is a bet on increased minutes. 

Bennedict Mathurin over 10.5 points (-108) 

Montreal’s finest can be feast or famine as we’ve witnessed over Indy’s magical playoff run. 

He’s played 18 games total and made two field-goals or less in half of them.  

In three games, he’s been Indiana’s leading scorer, including a game-high 27 on Wednesday. 

There’s no doubting his talent but earning a role in Rick Carlislie’s rotation is no simple task.  

Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith both play critical roles defensively, especially against SGA and Jalen Williams.  

Where Mathurin adds the most value is his shot making abilities, specifically in the halfcourt.  

OKC has done a tremendous job turning off the transition faucet for Indiana. 

The Pacers averaged 15.5 fast-break points over the first three rounds; that’s flattened out to 12.0 over three Finals games.  

As their offence is slowed down, Indy needs more ballhandlers who can take the load off Tyrese Haliburton’s hands.  

Mathurin has put up 15.3 ppg on sparkling 58/60/79 shooting splits.  

Similar to the advantage SGA might have in tonight’s game, his fellow Canadian has also been effective getting to the free-throw line.  

At 6.3 FTA per game, him and Siakam account for 58 percent of Indy’s free-throw volume.  

He’s third overall in the series, playing just over 20 minutes a night.  

While his postseason numbers have been tempered down, don’t forget he’s a sixth-overall draft pick who average 16.1 ppg in the regular season. 

He’s Indy’s third-best shotmaker and seems to have found his confidence at the most important time.