Setting The Pick – Semifinals Game 1 reactions

Projections, predictions, or hypotheses – whatever you choose to call it, there’s a ton of guessing when it comes to Game 1s.  

As we saw to open the second round of the playoffs, the markets were way off.  

Three games, three upsets.  

Indiana closed as +280 underdogs and stole home court Sunday.  

New York and Denver subsequently did the same Monday night as +310 and +360 moneyline dogs as well.  

Parlay those three lines together and you’d get a 70-to-1 winner in your settled bets tab.  

Given these results, each underdog has seen their series price drastically shorten. 

FanDuel clearly expected more lopsided outcomes, so kudos to you if you got in on those longer prices.  

Now that the dust has settled, here are some of my takeaways from those three series.  

Cavs vs. Pacers over 229 total points (-110) 

Coming into this matchup, both teams earned plenty respect for how they carved up their first-round opponents.  

Cleveland and Indiana came into the semis owning the first and third-best offensive-ratings respectively. 

With the Cavs rostering Defensive Player of the Year, Evan Mobley, and the Pacers finishing with the eighth-best defensive-rating post All-Star Break, it would’ve been fair to expect more resistance both ways.  

After watching Game 1, I’m anticipating even more scoring in Game 2.  

Even though neither team sits Top 3 in pace for the playoffs, both teams consistently were getting good quality shots up on the front end of the shot clock.  

There was no difference make or miss, both teams were hurrying up the court and not allowing their opponent to get set defensively.  

These are two teams that love firing from deep, combining for 74 heaves in Game 1.  

They also currently own the No. 1 and 2 effective field-goal percentage in the playoffs by a large margin.  

With Darius Garland out, Cleveland opted to start Sam Merrill along with Max Strus, two trigger happy three-point specialists.  

The Pacers have a five-out starting rotation who collectively shot 14-of-26 from three.  

At the time of writing this article, Cleveland has three players with questionable tags – Garland, Mobley, and De’Andre Hunter.  

The biggest concern is Mobley; if he’s out, the Pacers could threaten to exceed the 121 they dropped in Game 1.  

Also, I wouldn’t count on Donovan Mitchell going 1-for-11 from deep two nights in a row.  

Ty Jerome over points prop 

As it stands, Garland remains unlikely to play in Game 2.  

Unfortunately, from a betting perspective, FanDuel won’t release a prop for Jerome until that news is settled.  

Keep an eye out for it.  

If Jerome’s line is made available in conjunction with Garland being ruled out, I’d take the over on his scoring prop (which should be in the 14.5 to 16.5 range).  

Jerome, a Sixth Man of the Year finalist, has emerged as Cleveland’s go-to player off the bench who takes on the playmaking responsibility when one of Mitchell or Garland sits.  

He’s averaged 17.2 ppg over five playoff games, three of which were without Garland.  

During the regular season, he averaged 12.5 ppg but saw a massive uptick in the six games Garland was sidelined.  

He averaged 22.2 ppg on 53/46/92 shooting splits.  

When Mitchell came off the court in Game 1, Jerome was orchestrating the offence and finished with 20 field-goal attempts, seven more than his next closest teammate (Mobley).  

Indiana didn’t really have an answer for him defensively.  

In a game where I expect the Cavs to play with urgency, count on an encore offensive performance from the 6MOY finalist. 

Josh Hart over 11.5 points (-102) 

The Boston Celtics very blatantly left Hart open in space with either Kristaps Porzingis or Al Horford as his primary defender.  

They were daring him to shoot and opting to have their bigs rover around the paint.  

Hart subsequently finished the game with five three-point attempts, tied for the most he’s taken this postseason. 

Their offence got very stagnate when he wasn’t attacking those situations. 

If Boston repeats this strategy on Wednesday, I’d count on a bounceback game from Hart.  

He went 1-for-5 from deep and 3-for-6 from the line, both well below his season average of 33.3 percent and 77.6 percent. 

Part of Hart’s value is his ability to get out in transition which could be a key considering how married to the three-ball Boston is.  

This series reminds me of New York’s first-round matchup last year with Philadelphia.  

The Sixers were executing a similar gameplan on Hart, yet he opened that series hitting 12 threes over the first three games on 52 percent shooting.  

Nikola Jokic over 13.5 rebounds (-110) 

On first glance, I’m sure you’re looking at this line thinking “that’s a big number”.  

No one else other than Domantas Sabonis, the regular season leader, averaged more per game.  

Admittedly I had the same apprehension but given how he dominated the paint in Game 1 and his regular season track-record versus OKC, I saw this as a mountain the Thunder can’t move. 

Over four games this year, Jokic dropped 15.8 rpg against OKC, the 11th-worst rebounding team.  

In their upset victory, Jokic amassed 22 rebounds, putting up arguably the stat line of the postseason.  

Even though I felt the Thunder effectively swarmed him with bodies, he still managed to impose his will on the game, outmuscling their frontcourt.  

Don’t forget Jokic famously joked after his first encounter with Chet Holmgren about the need for him “to be a little bit fatter.” 

Jokic has 80 pounds on him and 30 pounds on Isaiah Hartenstein and it showed in Game 1.  

It’s not a shock that both of them ended up with five fouls.  

Similar to Steven Adams in Houston’s series versus Golden State, I truly think OKC has no answer for The Joker on the glass.