Morning Coffee: SGA, Thunder a massive favourite for Game 1 of NBA Finals

The Edmonton Oilers can never be counted out.

At least, not as long as two of the best hockey players on the planet are leading the way for them.

Trailing the Florida Panthers 3-1 in the second period of Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final, Edmonton could be found as high as +340 to win outright at FanDuel.

After Viktor Arvidsson cut the deficit to one entering the third period, the stage was set for another comeback.

Connor McDavid set up Mattias Ekholm’s game-tying goal just 6:33 into the third period.

Then in overtime, McDavid set up Leon Draisaitl for the game-winning goal and his second of the night.

Draisaitl 2+ goals was a winner at FanDuel.

McDavid 2+ assists was a winner at FanDuel.

The Oilers set a franchise record with their fourth comeback win after trailing in the third period in these Stanley Cup Playoffs.

They also tied a team record with their fourth multi-goal comeback win of the postseason.

McDavid and Draisaitl lead the Stanley Cup Playoffs with 28 and 27 points, respectively.

With the Game 1 victory, Edmonton’s odds to win the Stanley Cup shifted from -126 to -225 at FanDuel.

The Oilers are -128 to take a 2-0 series lead with another win on home ice on Friday night.

In the meantime, the NBA Finals tip off tonight with the Oklahoma City Thunder registering as a historic favourite against the Indiana Pacers entering Game 1 on TSN.

Plus, the CFL season kicks off in Saskatchewan with the Roughriders as a 3.5-point favourite against the visiting Ottawa Redblacks.

While none of the CFL Week 1 favourites are bigger than -5.5 at FanDuel, it’s a much different story for the series opener in the NBA Finals.

The Thunder are the biggest NBA Finals favourite since 2018 and the sixth-biggest favourite dating back to 1968.

Can Indiana keep pace with Oklahoma City in Game 1? 

If the historical precedent is any indication, the Thunder will find a way to win and cover as a 9.5-point favourite.

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday June 5th, 2025.

SGA, Thunder A Massive Favourite For Game 1 of NBA Finals

The Thunder are -700 to win the NBA title at FanDuel.

Oklahoma City is +300 to win the NBA Finals in four.

The fact that the Thunder’s odds to sweep the series in four are shorter than the Pacers to win the title at +500 sheds some light on just how lopsided this match-up is perceived to be on paper.

+500 translates to just a 16.7 per cent implied series win probability for Indiana.

Sure, the Pacers are in rare territory after back-to-back series upsets against the Cleveland Cavaliers and the New York Knicks in the conference semi-finals and finals.

This is different.

Over the last 50 years, only 10 teams have been favoured at -600 or higher in the NBA Finals.

Those 10 teams went a combined 9-1.

The only upset was when the 2004 Detroit Pistons stunned the Los Angeles Lakers as a +500 underdog.

Will the Pacers do the same to the Thunder?

Maybe, but I’m not counting on it.

The NBA regular season MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led Oklahoma City to a combined 29-2 straight up against Eastern Conference opponents this season.

SGA already has a long list of accomplishments under his belt this season, and there’s a good chance he adds another as a -550 favourite to win NBA Finals MVP.

While Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets forced the Thunder to go seven games in the second round, OKC went a combined 8-1 against the Memphis Grizzlies and the Minnesota Timberwolves to get to the NBA Finals.

The Thunder are an even bigger favourite versus Indiana than they were against Minnesota in the Western Conference Finals.

Oklahoma City has been an underdog only four times all season and there’s a good chance that number won’t change in the NBA Finals.

The Thunder have beat their opponents by an average of 12.9 points per game this season – the highest mark for any team in NBA history.

That trend is expected to continue tonight as a 9.5-point favourite for Game 1 of the NBA Finals against the Pacers.

If the historical precedent is any indication, tonight could be a rough one for Indiana basketball fans.

Since 2005, NBA Finals Game 1 favourites are a combined 18-2 straight up and 17-3 against the spread.

In the 12 instances in which a team was favoured by more than five points for Game 1 of the NBA Finals, the favourite went a combined 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS.

While Oklahoma City has been an ATS darling over the past couple of seasons, that hasn’t carried over to the NBA Playoffs to date.

Will that trend change tonight?

I’m willing to bank on the strength of the Thunder, home-court advantage, and the potential for the moment to be just a little too big for the Pacers in Game 1 on the road.

I’ll lock in a Same Game Parlay with SGA 4+ assists and Oklahoma City half-time/full-time at -160 odds.

It’s a little bit juicy, but SGA has cleared four or more assists in every game this postseason, and I like the Thunder to take care of business on their home floor.

Hopefully, SGA can guide OKC to a lopsided Game 1 win.

Have a great day, everyone!