Storylines and best bet for Game 5 between Leafs and Panthers

And then it was a best of three. 

There’s a saying as old as time when it comes to playoff hockey: “You’re never in trouble until you lose a game on home ice.” 

And for the Toronto Maple Leafs that… doesn’t seem to be the case. 

The Leafs opened the second round +165 to win this series and after winning the opening two games on home ice, the Leafs became sizeable favourites as the series shifted to Florida. 

Now, coming back to Toronto for Game 5 the series is tied at 2-2 and the Leafs have returned to the spot of being the underdog. 

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers series betting odds 

The Leafs path to victory is simple, protect home ice. 

That’s why you play 82 games in the regular season, to decide which teams have the luxury of getting that extra home game if the series goes the distance. 

The Leafs have been great on home ice this postseason and enter the night 4-1 in home playoff games in 2025. 

So let’s get into a few storylines to watch in Game 5 before handing things off to Domenic Padula, as TSN’s senior sports betting analyst looks to move to 5-0 in the second round with his best bets. 

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If not now… when? 

For years, the Maple Leafs issues in the postseason have gone beyond their top two players. But that doesn’t seem to be the case in 2025. 

This year, scoring from the supporting cast has been there. Matthew Knies and John Tavares have five goals each, Morgan Rielly has chipped in with four, and guys less expected to score have stepped up in big spots like Max Domi with an overtime winner and Max Pacioretty with seven points in eight games. 

The defence has also been solid, with a group of heavy bodies blocking shots and making groups of opposing forwards uncomfortable with their presence. 

The goaltending has been pretty good as well and Joesph Woll was pretty much the only reason the Leafs even had a chance entering the third period of Game 4 as his 35 saves on 37 shots wasn’t enough. 

The head coach is level-headed and clearly has this team playing a good brand of hockey conducive for playoff success. 

There’s not more excuses left for the duo that myself and good pal Reno have deemed “Frick and Frack.” 

As it turns out, according to Wikipedia, Frick and Frack were a comedic duo of Swiss ice skaters who went to the United States in 1937 and joined the original Ice Follies show. 

So for the sake of this article, let’s say Auston is Frick and Mitch is Frack. 

I wouldn’t exactly call their level of play in the playoffs “comedic ice skating” but some would. Not me, but some might. 

Frick, in my opinion, deserves more credit than his partner. 

Matthews isn’t scoring and hasn’t scored in any of the nine playoff games he’s played in his career against the Panthers. 

But he’s getting chances. The American has three-or-more shots on goal in every game of the series, and leads the team with 35 shots through 10 playoff games. 

Matthews’ 0.8 assists per game in the postseason this year is best since logging four assists against the Columbus Blue Jackets in five qualifying round games in 2020. 

He is +116 to get an assist and -230 to log three-or-more shots on goal tonight. 

As for Frack, It’s time to wake up. 

Marner has just one shot on goal in his last three games, after getting four shots on goal in the opening game of the series. 

If Matthews isn’t going to score but contribute in other areas, Marner has to be the one to pick up the slack. 

Maybe being back in Toronto will get him going, Marner has two goals and six points in five home playoff games this year. 

Marner is -235 to log a point Wednesday night, is +280 to score and -118 to get two or more shots on net in regulation. 

I’ll roll with a Frick and Frack point parlay at -134 for tonight. The comedy show ends tonight. 

You Again… 

Two years ago I had a pain in my side that just wouldn’t go away, so I had my doctor take a look and it turned out to be cancer. 

Eight months later, when I finished treatment, I was told that the pain in my side should be gone for good. 

And for a little bit it was. And then the Panthers traded for Brad Marchand and all the pain came back. 

And it makes sense because as a Leaf fan I have felt that pain before, once in 2013 again in 2018, 2019 and 2024. 

And just when it looked like Marchand and the Boston Bruins couldn’t hurt me anymore, there he is with Florida in the second round of the 2025 playoffs. 

I wrote about Marchand before Game 1 of this series, citing his 10 goals and 29 points in 28 playoff games against the Leafs, since then all he’s done is add to his total. 

Marchand has two goals and four points in the series, keeping his points per game against the Leafs at over one in the postseason. 

The 37-year-old is +122 to add to his total again in Game 5, and I can already feel my side flare up again Wednesday night when he cashes that bet. 

Don’t overthink the Panthers props tonight, Marchand has shown time and time again that he is up for the moment, especially in Toronto where he has 16 points in 14 road playoff games.  

Dom's Game 5 Best Bet 

How important is Game 5?

When a best-of-seven series has been tied 2-2 in the Stanley Cup Playoffs over the last three seasons, the winner of Game 5 has gone on to advance 93 per cent of the time.

13 wins, 1 loss. Of course, we don't need to talk about the one team that failed to advance in that scenario right now.

Instead, let's try to go 5-0 with the FanDuel Best Bets for the series.

As expected, Florida's top scorers stepped up in Games 3 and 4 on home ice.

Now the series shifts to Toronto for Game 5, where the third line performed the best for the Panthers in the first two games.

Anton Lundell, Brad Marchand, and Eetu Luostarinen combined for 3 goals and 6 points in those two losses.

With Evan Rodrigues out for Game 5, Florida will need that trio to pick up where they left off in Toronto tonight.

I locked in Lundell 1+ point +164 and Marchand 1+ point +122 as a pair of FanDuel Best Bets in my Morning Coffee column.

I want to expand on Lundell here.

Dating back to the start of last year's Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Panthers have played six games in which they either clinched the series or went ahead 3-2 in a series that was tied. In those six games, Lundell has registered three goals and a team-high eight points.

He might fly under the radar, but Lundell is tied for the team lead with eight points this postseason.

Considering his penchant for stepping up in similar games and the way that the third line performed in the first two games in Toronto, I'll roll with Lundell 1+ point as a FanDuel Best Bet for this column.

Enjoy the game, everyone!